Survey says…Commanders should trade down from the second overall pick!

Survey results!!

It’s not often that I am surprised by the results of our Reacts surveys here on Hogs Haven, but in answer to this week’s question about what to do with the 2nd overall pick in the upcoming April draft, I had expected a battle between Drake Maye and Jayden Daniels to dominate.

Instead, Hogs Haven members stayed on-brand and split the vote pretty evenly among the top four choices, but, ultimately, put the option of “Trade down and accumulate draft picks” into the No. 1 position in the survey.

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Unsurprisingly, only 4% of those surveyed voted to trade up into the #1 position.

In the Drake Maye vs Jayden Daniels competition, Daniels had the edge 21% to 18%.

I wonder if Washington fans are a bit unique in their readiness (desire?) to trust the football guys to get it right; at 27%, the 2nd-most popular response in our survey was to simply trust Adam Peters to do his job and make the best selection.

What could a trade-down look like?

Unlike many activities in life, NFL trades require two willing partners. If Washington’s GM Adam Peters were to be interested in trading down to accumulate more draft capital, which teams are likely to be on the other side of that trade?

In other words, which teams that need quarterbacks are behind Washington in the draft order, but close enough to make the trade down attractive for Peters? Also, do any or all of those teams have draft picks (this year or next year) to trade?

#3 overall – New England Patriots

The Patriots are in situation that is very similar to Washington, with a roster that needs help, a first-year head coach, and no clear answer at the quarterback position.

On the popular Rich Hill trade chart, the difference in value between #2 and #3 overall is 202.9 points, roughly equivalent to the 17th overall pick in the draft (the pick used on Jonathan Allen in 2017).

The Patriots have one pick per round this year, so a potential trade package might be something like:

This trade would allow Washington to still take one of the top-3 quarterbacks in the draft; alternately, Washington could consider a premium player like Marvin Harrison Jr.

The team would go into the 2025 draft with two 1st round picks — both likely to be in the top half of the draft — giving them a ton of flexibility to maneuver next year.

The only way this trade is likely to happen is if the Patriots brass is completely sold on Maye or Daniels and unwilling to use the #3 overall pick on the other guy. It just doesn’t feel like a very likely trade.

#6 overall – New York Giants

There has been a lot of discussion about the Giants trading with New England to acquire the #3 overall pick in a bid to draft Daniel Jones’ replacement.

You know what’s better than trading up for the No. 3 overall pick? Trading up to No. 2!

Of course, it’s Football 101 that division rivals don’t trade. If Washington trades with New York, then the burgundy & gold has to face the guy selected with that pick twice a year for a long time to come.

But, unlikely as it is, let’s at least take a cursory glance at the trade chart.

According to Rich Hill, the point differential between #2 to #6 is 325.8 points, roughly equivalent to the #8 overall pick in the draft.

We have estimates floating around about what it would cost the Giants to trade up with New England. Earlier this week, it was estimated that the Giants would have to throw in three 2nd round picks to make this trade. The Giants have two 2nd rounders in the ‘24 draft; the idea is likely that the Giants would give both of those and their 2025 2nd round pick. I’m thinking that a trade up to #2 might look something like this:

I doubt whether the Giants, who have a lot of roster building of their own to do, would be willing to pay this much to jump ahead of the Patriots (or any team that would trade for New England’s draft spot).

Assuming, however, that Joe Schoen was willing to make this deal, then Washington would be in a position, at 6th overall, to draft a top-tier offensive lineman (or even trade down again). The Commanders would also add a pair of top-50 picks in this year’s draft, and Adam Peters would go into the 2025 draft with a pair of first round picks that again are likely to both be in the top half of the round, providing tons of flexibility for next year.

#8 overall – Atlanta Falcons

This feels like the trade option that might be realistic.

Falcons head coach Raheem Morris has made it clear that he is in the market for a quarterback; 4th-year GM Terry Fontenot has to be feeling some heat, and, 81-year-old owner Arthur Blank probably feels the clock ticking on his opportunity to hold a Lombardi trophy after his team’s historic collapse on February 5th, 2017 when Dan Quinn was the team’s head coach and Kyle Shanahan was its offensive coordinator.

The Falcons have 7 picks in the 2024 draft (two 4th rounders; no 7th rounder). The point differential between 2nd overall and 8th overall according to Rich Hill is 390 points, roughly equivalent to the 6th overall pick.

A trade between the two teams might look something like this:

In actuality, the three 1st round picks (‘24, ‘25, ‘26) are probably sufficient — my inclusion of the 4th round pick this year was a bit gratuitous. If Washington trades down, I want at least one extra pick in the ‘24 draft.

At 8th overall, Washington can likely get a top-tier offensive tackle, and Adam Peters will go into the next two drafts with a pair of 1st round picks in each. That provides tons of flexibility and ammunition for roster building in the regime’s second and third seasons in Washington. The mid-4th round pick in this year’s draft gives Peters a chance to perform a bit of the kind of magic he’s known for in the middle rounds, hopefully adding a much-needed player to this year’s roster.

Final thoughts

It’s easy to call for the team to trade down; it’s more of a challenge for the front office to find a trade partner who is in the right spot in the draft order, is motivated enough to trade, and has the draft capital needed to execute it.

This year, the only team I see that seems to have all the components that make up a viable trade partner is the Falcons.

Staying put at #2 overall

Another way to look at the survey results is that 66% of respondents — 2 out of 3 — voted to stay at #2 and use the pick on a quarterback, with some preferring Drake Maye, others preferring Jayden Daniels, and even more willing to simply trust Adam Peters to get it right.

And that — the Commanders picking a quarterback at #2 — seems to be the most likely outcome. Trading down in the top of the first round is a difficult dance that requires a motivated and appropriate trade partner, and Washington’s choices appear to be extremely limited. As popular as the idea is with Hogs Haven readers, a trade back seems an unlikely outcome; a rookie quarterback drafted 2nd overall seems to be the odds-on favorite among the potential outcomes.

No doubt, the clamor over what should and will happen on April 25th will only intensify on social media, radio talk shows and blogs between now and the moment Rodger Goodell walks onto the stage in Detroit to announce that Chicago (or another team) is on the clock with the first overall pick in the 2024 Draft.

That clamor should last right up until the moment when we see the words on the screen with the Commanders logo: “The pick is in”.

It will pause for a moment, and then, after the pick is announced, the noise will really begin.

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