The 5 O’Clock Club: There’s an opportunity with Russell Wilson

It’s 5 o’clock somewhere…

The 5 o’clock club is published from time to time during the season, and aims to provide a forum for reader-driven discussion at a time of day when there isn’t much NFL news being published. Feel free to introduce topics that interest you in the comments below.

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It’s a little bit early in the offseason for me to be rolling out the 5 o’clock club, but with the reported release of Russell Wilson by the Broncos, I thought the perfect opportunity was presented to use the “what if” nature of these articles to ask an intriguing question:

Should the Commanders be in the Russell Wilson business?

Before you scream bloody murder and head to the comments section to call me an idiot, let me lay out a few reasons why it could be an advantage for Adam Peters to pursue DangeRuss.

No. 1 Russ played pretty well in 2023

We all know that the trade for Russell Wilson turned out to be disastrous for the Broncos, and there’s no question that the 2022 season with Nathanial Hackett was Wilson’s worst of his career, but, despite how things worked out for the team, Russell Wilson had a pretty good 2023 season under Sean Payton.

Russ completed 66.4% of his passes — better than his career average and better than his 10-year average with the Seahawks. It was, in fact, the 3rd highest completion percentage of Wilson’s 12-year career.

The quarterback also threw 26 touchdowns and 8 interceptions. His 1.8% interception percentage was right on the average of his 10-years with the Seahawks,

Russell also ran the ball 80 times for 341 yards and 3 touchdowns and 38 first downs.

In short, while Wilson will be 36 years old, he is still a capable passer and possesses good mobility. The taint of the 2022 season has left the impression that he’s no longer a good player, but he’s playing at a level that gives his team a chance to win.

No. 2 Russ could be signed on a very cheap deal

The Broncos still owe Russell Wilson $39 million in cash salary, far and away the most any team has ever owed a player who was cut.

Because of offset language in his contract, any compensation paid to Wilson by the Commanders (or whichever team signs him) simply reduces the amount of money, dollar-for-dollar, that the Broncos have to pay him. In other words, Wilson is not going to get more than that $39m this year, so he might as well take a league-minimum contract for 2024 to help his new team manage the salary cap while he sticks his finger in Sean Payton’s eye.

This means that Washington could have Russell playing on a contract with a $1.21m cap hit; by contrast, the 2024 cap hit for the player selected with the 2nd overall pick will be about $7.79m per Over the Cap.

In other words, Russell Wilson could potentially save the Commanders about $6.58m in cap space as compared to drafting a rookie QB. Under this scenario, the combined cap hits for Wilson and Sam Howell as QB1 & QB2 would be less than $3.2m! This would be a bonanza in terms of fast ‘recalibration’ of the team’s roster.

No. 3 Wilson will be a free agent — no draft capital needs to be used to trade for him

Russell Wilson can be signed with no draft compensation. Sure, two years ago he turned up his nose at the idea of playing for Dan Snyder’s team, but things have changed a lot on both ends. I imagine that a little Earvin Johnson magic applied to the recruitment process could tip the scales in a negotiation where Wilson will likely have a limited number of suitors.

Signing Wilson would allow Adam Peters to auction off the #2 pick to whichever team wants it enough to part with a huge haul of picks that would allow the Commanders to rebuild recalibrate their roster more quickly.

No. 4 Long-term commitment probably isn’t required

After the way things went in Denver, Russell Wilson isn’t gonna get a blockbuster long-term contract from anybody. His best chance is to sign a one- or two-year deal with a team and then to play well, setting up the opportunity for a final NFL payday in his age 38 season.

For a rebuilding…sorry…recalibrating team like the Commanders, this is probably ideal. At just about the time that Washington has fully refurbished its roster, it will be time to commit big dollars to Wilson or cut him loose.

Summary

My argument in favor of pursuing Russell Wilson is that he is a great fit for the 2024 (and maybe 2025) Commanders. It costs no draft capital to acquire him; he has every incentive to sign a league minimum (for 2024), short-term contract, and he is a 12-year veteran who proved last season that he can still play at a competitive level.