Vikings Don’t Need to Trade Up for a QB

Lots of talent likely to be available for the Vikings at #11 – and maybe even #23

Since the Minnesota Vikings traded for a second first-round pick in a deal Albert Breer reported was initiated by the Houston Texans, there has been widespread speculation that the Vikings will use that additional first-round draft pick to move up in the draft, perhaps as far as the #3 overall pick. While not universal, most are speculating that the Vikings intend to draft Drake Maye in that scenario. The consensus view is that Caleb Williams will be drafted first by the Bears, and Jayden Daniels will be drafted second by the Commanders. That’s also supported by the odds each quarterback will be taken at those spots, by those teams, at -3500 and -170 respectively. Given that, and barring RGIII PTSD affecting the Commanders choice of Daniels, there is no reason to believe either Williams or Daniels will be available to the Vikings in a potential trade-up scenario.

Why Trading Up for a QB Would Be a Bad Deal for the Vikings

So, with Williams and Daniels off the board, that leaves the next two quarterbacks on the consensus board – Drake Maye and J.J. McCarthy- as potential targets for the Vikings. But neither Maye or McCarthy are top ten worthy picks. Here’s why.

First, any player picked in the first round, and especially in the top half of the first round, and even more so in the top 5-10 picks, is expected to become an immediate impact starter for the team that drafts him. These represent the very best, highest ceiling, highest floor prospects that have consistently demonstrated All-Pro potential in their extensive college tape, which has been confirmed in the pre-draft process. This isn’t where teams draft players that may be a project for a year or two, or boom or bust prospects, or those with significant injury/durability concerns, or those that haven’t consistently demonstrated All-Pro potential in their college tape. This is where teams draft immediate “plug-and-play” starters who justify perennial Pro-Bowl expectations.

Which brings us back to Drake Maye and J.J. McCarthy.

These are both 21-year-old prospects with two years of starting experience. And while both of them have flashed some high-ceiling plays, there are a lot of weaknesses and/or unproven aspects to their game that show up a lot more often. In both cases, scouts have said they need a year after being drafted to develop. I’ll get into the specifics further down in the film studies, but if neither Maye or McCarthy are ready to start this season, they shouldn’t be drafted early in the first round. In both cases that would be a big reach for the Vikings, should they trade up, and still a significant reach even if they picked either at #11. Yes, I get that quarterback is the most important position in professional sports, and if a guy might be elite down the road maybe you take a chance if you have strong conviction in the player. But this approach is why the success rate on quarterbacks drafted in the first round is closer to the average for second round picks than first round picks. They get over drafted repeatedly based on teams or coaches overestimating their ability to make them into elite players, despite some red flags or weaknesses that may be difficult to correct or improve. Using a first-round pick on such a player is over drafting. Trading up and spending two or three first round picks to draft more of a long-shot player is a gamble that can haunt a team for many years.

A Note on QB Circumstances

It’s important to know the team circumstances for each quarterback when comparing them. For example, Drake Maye and J.J. McCarthy were in opposite circumstances at North Carolina and Michigan respectively. Maye played on a bad team in 2023 that required him to do just about everything for them offensively. McCarthy, by contrast, played on a very good team at Michigan that didn’t ask him to do much as Michigan was a heavy run-first offense. Caleb Williams didn’t have a great team around him, especially defensively at USC, while Michael Penix Jr. and Bo Nix had good teams around them, but different schemes that led to notable differences in some stats. Jayden Daniels had a great offense at LSU with two first-round wide receivers and a good offensive line, but not a good defense.

It’s also important consider experience. Jayden Daniels, Bo Nix, and Michael Penix Jr. have five years (or six in the case of Penix) of college experience, while Maye, McCarthy, and Williams have two years and change. You’d expect the more experienced quarterbacks to be more developed, and they are, but that also leads to questions on what upside they have left to develop as they enter the league.

Lastly, for more comprehensive stats and comments from scouts and other evaluators on the top quarterback prospects, check out my summary here.

With that, let’s look at Drake Maye in more detail.

A Closer Look at Drake Maye

Even more flattering film reviews and profiles of Drake Maye indicate that he’s still raw, needs to work on fundamentals like footwork to improve accuracy- which was not good last season- and become more consistent across the board. There is also improvement needed in decision-making and processing/progression ability. There have been some scouting comments that North Carolina didn’t spend much time on drilling fundamentals with Maye, and that shows up on the field with footwork and pocket issues. Overall, that’s a lot to develop over a summer in a short number of team activities. That’s also not a quarterback that’s ready to start in September for the Vikings. That’s a quarterback that needs a year to sit and develop.

From a traditional draft board ranking perspective, that translates into a Day Two pick if he has high upside. But the reality is that Maye is a project that may or may not pan out in the NFL. Yes, he has shown flashes, but then again so did every first-round quarterback from the 2021 draft now playing for another team, and pretty much every quarterback drafted in the first round who didn’t make it.

Less flattering film reviews and profiles of Maye suggest an overrated prospect who didn’t elevate his team, has a lot of issues, may have an exaggerated upside, and has a low floor as a prospect that needs substantial development to make it in the NFL.

But let’s look at the tape. The film breakdowns I’ve chosen are all featuring a guy that’s either played quarterback or coached them in the NFL, not just some random fanalyst guy. I’ve also tried to avoid as much as possible some of the breakdowns that cherry-pick plays in a game that don’t present a complete picture of that particular game.

This first breakdown is of the North Carolina State game, the last of Maye’s college career, by Kurt Benkert, who played quarterback at East Carolina and Virginia in college, then bounced around a few NFL practice squads between 2018-2022.

These next two breakdowns are from Hall of Fame QB Kurt Warner and are breakdowns of the Duke and Virginia games in the 2023 season.

Additionally, there are some game breakdowns by former NFL quarterback JT O’Sullivan, who breaks down Maye’s Clemson game, Duke game, and the NC State game. These are behind a pay wall, but you can check them out if you’re interested. Very similar commentary as the others above. O’Sullivan also breaks down the Miami game and 2022 Notre Dame game, shown below and free to watch here.

Bottom line with these film evaluations and tying them back to the critical factors of being an elite quarterback in the NFL- accuracy, decision-making, pocket awareness, and clutch performance- Maye has issues with all four to one degree or another.

Accuracy suffers due to inconsistent/poor footwork, but also just random misses on routine throws. Go route accuracy is very good, but Maye also has some issue with ball placement too that aren’t footwork issues.

Decision making issues largely come from slower processing speed which can cause him to miss reads or not make progressions, and not throw with anticipation or proper timing. He doesn’t appear decisive on many occasions as well, meaning making a quick decision and getting the ball out quickly. That may be due to some uncertainty regarding coverages or choice routes, not having a lot of trust in his receivers, but whatever the reason that doesn’t help when pass protection is less than ideal as well.

Pocket awareness issues include drifting in the pocket (which can also telegraph throws) and sometimes creating his own pressure that way, and sometimes also bailing when he could have stepped up in the pocket and made the throw.

In terms of clutch performance, Maye has some big time throws and has delivered in some higher leverage situations- and done so often times without a lot of help from the team around him. But the poor finish to the 2023 season and inability to raise his team’s performance overall against ACC competition casts some doubt about his clutch ability at the next level, despite his prototypical physical traits.

I’ve seen comparisons for Maye from Justin Herbert at the higher end, to Will Levis and Daniel Jones from former NFL QB coach Marc Trestman. One troubling aspect of Trestman’s evaluation of Maye, which was done between the 2022 and 2023 seasons, was all the ‘room for growth areas’ that Trestman mentioned in May of 2023 are the same issues evaluators are pointing out now. In other words, Maye did not improve on these issues in the 2023 season. That’s concerning.

Bottom Line on Drake Maye

While Maye probably didn’t get the best coaching at North Carolina, it’s surprising that a prospect that’s been in the top 3 pick conversation for over a year has a number of problems with more fundamental issues that are independent of the team around him. But it’s true the team around him was not that good, and they struggled even against mediocre ACC competition.

But sometimes less than ideal coaching and situation can present an opportunity for growth and improvement if those two factors change. It’s been said in the past that some teams or scouts are reluctant to draft some Alabama prospects, given they’ve had the best coaching and team situation over the years and so there isn’t as much upside for coaches to develop. With Maye, there could potentially be more untapped potential with better coaching and a better team around him. But with that comes a jump in complexity and competition, as Maye transitions to the NFL. Catching up on fundamentals while also ramping up offensive and defensive complexity and level of competition can be a lot for a young quarterback to undertake, and as has been abundantly clear throughout league history, is something few young quarterbacks are able to do successfully.

That’s not to say Maye won’t be an elite quarterback in the NFL. Nobody has been able to predict which quarterback prospects will flourish in the league and which will not with any significant degree of accuracy. And if the Vikings decide to draft Maye, their QB coach Josh McCown has the advantage of having coached Maye in high school and so may know him better and understand how best to coach him and bring out the best in him. But at this point McCown, who played 18 seasons in the league as a journeyman backup quarterback, doesn’t have much of a track record in developing young quarterbacks.

In any case, drafting Maye in the top five picks, as some are speculating the Vikings will do, does not represent a good value for the Vikings if Maye needs to sit for a year or more and develop. Spending two first round picks or more to do so makes the value proposition even worse.

Lastly, the rumor is that the Patriots at #3 don’t like Maye that much and prefer Daniels. So what will the Patriots do if Daniels is already taken when they’re on the clock? They could easily take a top wide receiver if they don’t like Maye and the Vikings balked or low-balled them on any trade offer.

Every year a quarterback thought to go early in the first round ends up dropping for one reason or another. Aaron Rodgers was neck-and-neck with Alex Smith for going #1 overall, but Rodgers ended up dropping all the way to #24. Last year Will Levis was expected to go as high as #4 but slid all the way to the second round.

A Closer Look at J.J. McCarthy

The cliff notes scouting report on McCarthy is that he’s been good at what he was asked to do at Michigan for the most part but wasn’t asked to do much as a passer and he doesn’t have elite physical traits. He does seem to have the intangible ‘it’ factor which draws a lot of attention. But I’ve yet to see any major draft board with McCarthy ranked any higher than the low 20s overall. The expectation now is that McCarthy will be drafted higher than that based on his intangibles, but just how high remains a question mark.

The major criticism of McCarthy is not that he can’t do this or that as a passer, it’s just that he hasn’t done it much apart from the easier throws in the catalog, and he’s never really had a game where he needed to carry the team as a passer or had a lot of drop-back volume. He also had a very good- national champion- team around him last season with a heavy run-first offense that gave him frequently advantageous game situations all season.

Having said that, there is a difference between Maye and McCarthy when it comes to fundamentals that are independent of team situation that is fairly evident. McCarthy was more accurate at all levels except 30+ yard throws than Maye last season and seems more decisive. Below, Benkert breaks down McCarthy’s game against Alabama last season.

Overall, Benkert’s main criticism was that McCarthy simply needs more passing volume to perfect some timing/touch issues that led to some inaccuracies and some bad decisions from just not having enough passing reps against a variety of coverages, etc. It’s not a big concern, but it will simply take McCarthy more time and reps to develop that polish as a passer.

The highest volume pass attempt game for McCarthy last season came against Purdue in a blowout win for Michigan. He had 37 pass attempts. No commentary here, but simply watching every pass attempt here shows where McCarthy is as a passer with a more normal amount of passing attempts in a game against an inferior Purdue defense.

Overall, it was a decent game by McCarthy, but nevertheless more inaccuracies and not ideal ball placement than you’d like to see.

Another McCarthy game worth watching to get a good overview of his game, good and bad, was the Fiesta Bowl against TCU at the end of the 2022 season. A rare game where Michigan was playing from behind nearly the whole game and Michigan had to lean on McCarthy and the passing game more.

McCarthy had some mistakes, but also plenty of flashes of playmaking ability and the ‘it’ factor even though Michigan lost this game.

Bottom Line on J.J. McCarthy

Fundamentally, J.J. McCarthy appears more pro-ready than Drake Maye even though he doesn’t have the passing volume. Ideally, he would have another college season’s worth of passing volume under his belt, but not having that means he likely needs to sit and develop more as a passer. There are a lot of NFL throws that McCarthy didn’t attempt much at Michigan, and he simply needs more reps with the full spectrum of throws he needs to make in the NFL.

The other thing about McCarthy is while he has adequate arm talent, can make all the throws, and has good athleticism, how he holds up when asked to throw forty times per game and carry a team is a question mark. Most likely he’ll need time to ramp up to that workload. What his ceiling is as a passer remains a question mark as well. He definitely exudes a lot of playmaking ability, but ultimately he’ll need to develop more physically and mentally against NFL competition to be a frequent clutch performer at the next level.

All that translates to a late first round grade given his intangibles, but also need for development, although I wouldn’t be surprised if more NFL team evaluators see a clearer, more certain path for McCarthy to being a quality NFL starter than with Drake Maye. And for that reason they may be willing to reach a bit for him in the draft.

But for the Patriots to take him at #3 would be a big reach, and although the rumor is they like McCarthy more than Maye, they don’t want to take him at #3. Ideally, the Patriots may prefer to trade down the with Vikings if they want Maye, and Daniels isn’t available at #3, and draft McCarthy at #11. But it’s unclear at this point whether Daniels will be available or who the Vikings would trade up for. But if teams stay true to their draft boards, I doubt McCarthy will go in the top ten picks.

There has been talk that the Giants might take McCarthy at #6, or even Jim Harbaugh and the Chargers at #5, but both of these seem doubtful. The Giants’ GM Joe Schoen just gave Daniel Jones a $160 million extension 13 months ago. For him to turn around and draft McCarthy next month would be a clown car move. Additionally, Brian Daboll may be more interested in getting Jones a top-tier wideout that will be available to them at #6 rather than starting over at quarterback. Daboll knows the difference adding a top wideout made in Josh Allen’s career- which got off to a rocky start before the Bills acquired Stefon Diggs.

I wouldn’t be surprised if Jim Harbaugh lobbied for McCarthy with the Chargers ownership and management, but I doubt they’d go for it with Justin Herbert recently extended. They could be a trade down partner, however, given their needs. Ultimately, it wouldn’t be surprising if McCarthy was available to the Vikings at #11 as there are no teams desperate for a quarterback between picks #3 and #11. A team like the Broncos (who don’t have a second-round pick) or the Raiders could make a move up, but the Vikings are in position to outbid them if they felt the need.

Two Pro-Ready Quarterbacks Not Getting a Lot of Attention

The other thing here when it comes to the Vikings’ need to potentially trade up in the draft, is there are two pretty good pro-ready quarterbacks that aren’t getting a lot of attention- both of whom may be better than Drake Maye and J.J. McCarthy, but are at least more pro-ready right now.

Both Bo Nix and Michael Penix Jr. lit up the stat sheet this past season with monster years. They both have a lot of college experience- Nix has started the most games in NCAA history- and are ready to start as rookies. Nix seems to get poo-pooed because he’s viewed as an Oregon-scheme only guy, while Penix is docked for his injury history. While both of these have some validity- Nix’s production was a product of Oregon’s scheme and Penix does have a significant injury history- they both have a lot of talent and could turn into elite quarterbacks in the league.

Both of them are ranked more as late-first to second round picks on most big boards. But watch the tape and you’d be hard pressed to find why they’re ranked lower than Drake Maye. Let’s take a closer look.

A Closer Look at Bo Nix

Bo Nix has played five seasons- and 61 games- in his college career. His first three years were at Auburn and the last two at Oregon. He had a good start to his college career at Auburn but it didn’t progress well his last two seasons there and he transferred to Oregon, where he flourished in Oregon’s short, quick passing attack. His stats were basically all top five this past season, except his average depth of target which was near the bottom at 6.8 yards given the number of bubble screens used in Oregon’s offense, and his big time throw rate was also low for the same reason.

But accuracy was tops in the FBS with an 85.5% adjusted completion rate. He was also more accurate on intermediate and deep throws than Drake Maye, Michael Penix Jr., and Caleb Williams last season. He also had the best PFF passing and overall grade under pressure by a wide margin over #2 JJ McCarthy, the list goes on. Had 45 TDs and just 3 INTs, and 5 turnover-worthy plays all season. He also showed plenty of clutch performance plays, in and out of structure, both with his arm and legs, was decisive with few poor decisions, good in the pocket, took care of the ball, hardly ever got sacked- there really isn’t a lot of criticism about Nix except the following:

• Some can’t forget the bad tape at Auburn three and four years ago;
• He threw a lot of bubble screens which inflated his stats;
• He can be too conservative at times- choosing a checkdown when he could’ve made a bigger throw downfield.

The first two are certainly true- he wasn’t nearly as good at Auburn and bubble screens were a staple of Oregon’s offensive scheme. And he was very good executing them. I’m not sure how valid the Auburn years are now, but both points relate to the question of how well he’ll do outside of the Oregon offensive scheme. He certainly has good fundamentals that translate into any scheme and the league in general, and showed the accuracy, decision-making, pocket presence, and clutch performance in college that could carry into the league, but that remains a question mark. He certainly has plenty of reps with pro-style passing concepts and has plenty of tape showing he can make every throw and has done so repeatedly- albeit not as often as some others given the nature of Oregon’s scheme.

The criticism that he’s too conservative- turning down longer throws for more conservative checkdowns- is at least somewhat valid. There are plays that he’s done that, but game context may have played into those decisions. Oregon had eleven blowout games last season and only three close games. I didn’t notice any missed opportunities in those close games- two of which were against Washington and are shown below.

This first film breakdown is of the Washington PAC-12 Championship game.

Here is that same game without any analysis:

Against USC:

And the earlier 2023 game against Washington:

Bottom Line on Bo Nix

Overall, there’s not a lot of big concerns with Nix’s tape. He was third-place in Heisman trophy voting this past season. Some will write him off as an Oregon-system quarterback that may/will struggle outside of that system, but he’s fundamentally sound and performs the key quarterback functions well. You would think that would carry-over to a west coast NFL offense, but there is enough skepticism that seems to be affecting Nix’s draft stock. Similar concerns about Williams and the one-read USC offense, or others in college spread offenses are much more muted.

Perhaps there are other concerns about Nix’s upside or ceiling, but there is a lot to like about this NFL-ready quarterback.

The Vikings remain a favorite at +350 to draft Nix, behind only Denver at +110 who has been linked to Nix. That suggests oddsmakers expect Nix to go #11 or #12 overall given the Broncos and Vikings don’t have a second-round pick, although the Vikings could potentially draft him at #23.

A Closer Look at Michael Penix Jr.

Penix Jr. is also an NFL-ready quarterback and runner-up for the Heisman trophy this year. He is a big deep-ball passer with a great arm. Overall, his accuracy was not as good as Nix, Daniels, and McCarthy, even on deep throws, but he also led the FBS with 43 big time throws. And when he’s on, he makes some really difficult throws with accuracy, touch, and good ball placement. He has unorthodox mechanics that can contribute to his higher inaccuracy at times, but it also works for him overall. He’s a left-handed quarterback. But overall, Penix is probably the most talented pure passer in this draft class, all things considered.

Beyond accuracy, Penix makes good decisions, throws with anticipation, processes well, and maneuvers well in the pocket. And he can deliver in clutch situations. Overall, you can nitpick issues with Penix, but like Bo Nix there isn’t a lot to criticize when watching his tape. He has good command of the offense and sees the field very well. And also like Nix, Penix has large 10+” hands that allow him to pump fake very effectively.

Penix may not be as athletic as some of the other quarterbacks in this draft class, but he can move the chains with his feet when needed. The concern with his being a dual-threat quarterback is his injury history, and I suspect any team that drafts him will be concerned about his being in harm’s way any more than necessary.

At the end of the day, the only reason Penix isn’t higher on draft boards is due to his injury history- two ACLs and two shoulder injuries that were all season-ending. So durability is a concern. But he is an NFL-ready quarterback with elite passing ability.

Penix vs. USC. This showcases Penix’s arm talent but also some accuracy issues.

Penix in the PAC-12 championship game vs. Oregon

Bottom Line on Michael Penix Jr.

Penix is an NFL-ready quarterback with elite arm talent and apart with some accuracy concerns at times, has demonstrated all the critical abilities needed to be an elite quarterback. But he does have an injury history that is concerning. Apparently, his medicals were good at the Combine, but that is unlikely to push him up much in the draft, where he is a second-round pick on most major draft boards. Each team will evaluate his medicals/injury history differently, and some may not be willing to draft him in the first few rounds because of it.

The Vikings remain the favorite to draft Penix at +250, followed by the Raiders at +320 and the Seahawks at +400. Good chance he’s available for the Vikings at #23 if they were so inclined. He may also be available trading down from #23 too.

Best Fit for the Vikings and Oddsmakers Take

There is a case to be made that either Drake Maye, J.J. McCarthy, Bo Nix, or Michael Penix Jr. would be a good fit in the Vikings offense. Indeed, being drafted by the Vikings would be a dream scenario for any of these quarterbacks given the offensive weapons, top tackles, and strong quarterback coaching. The Vikings scheme has focused on middle-of-the-field throws in the past with Kirk Cousins, with a lot of crossing routes being a staple of Kevin O’Connell’s scheme. J.J. McCarthy has been particularly good in targeting the middle of the field and has also done so more often in Jim Harbaugh’s offense at Michigan. That’s not to say the other quarterbacks could be just as good or better than McCarthy, but the nature of their schemes focused on different route concepts. Penix and Maye threw more deep shots outside the numbers, while Nix had a good deal of short middle-of-the field throws and longer ones outside the numbers. It’s also unclear if O’Connell will change his passing scheme depending on which quarterback they draft. It may be that Kirk Cousins had a preference for middle-of-the-field throws that influenced O’Connell’s scheme and play-calling, but which would be adapted for a new quarterback.

From an oddsmaker’s view, the Vikings are most likely to trade up to #4-5 and draft J.J. McCarthy. The Vikings have the shortest odds to draft McCarthy at -130 (56.5% implied probability), and he’s also most likely to be drafted at one of those two draft spots, although the implied probability is only about 25% for each spot.

The Vikings are also near favorites to draft Bo Nix at +350, behind only Denver at +110. They’re also the favorites to draft Michael Penix Jr. at +250, with the Raiders the next most likely team at +320. The odds for teams to draft Drake Maye have completely come off the board- even overseas bookmakers have taken them down, suggesting a good deal of uncertainty and potentially movement in which team will draft him.

Overall, the odds have been moving in favor of the Vikings drafting J.J. McCarthy over the past week or so, with the Vikings’ odds shortening to draft him and Denver becoming more of a favorite to draft Bo Nix. But all that could change.

But if Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, and Drake Maye go 1-2-3 in the draft as the oddsmakers currently favor, there may not be a team willing to draft J.J. McCarthy in the top ten or move up to do so. That could result in McCarthy being available to the Vikings at #11.

There is some speculation that the Giants might take McCarthy at #6, but that would require Giants’ GM Joe Schoen to do a complete 180 after giving Daniel Jones a $160 million extension just 13 months ago. That seems unlikely, especially as they’d pass up on a premium All-Pro potential receiver Brian Daboll would like to pair with Jones to give him more of a chance. He knows what a difference a top-tier receiver made for Josh Allen’s career. There’s also a chance Jim Harbaugh may lobby the Chargers ownership to draft McCarthy, but that also seems unlikely given they have Justin Herbert. There is also a chance the Patriots opt to take McCarthy at #3, but it also seems doubtful McCarthy would go that high.

Perhaps the biggest danger of McCarthy not falling to #11 is if a team like the Broncos or Raiders traded up with Chicago, who could also potentially refuse a better offer from the Vikings to deny them their quarterback of choice. That could potentially deny the Bears their preferred choice, however as the Jets have some similar needs at #10 and could take their guy.

Bottom line, the Vikings will have some good choices at #11 if they decide not to trade up. Those will likely include both Bo Nix and Michael Penix Jr., but also perhaps J.J. McCarthy and potentially even Drake Maye if the Patriots choose a wide receiver rather than a quarterback at #3.

Stay tuned.

Follow me on X/Twitter @wludford

PFF Profiles of Drake Maye, J.J. McCarthy, Bo Nix, and Michael Penix Jr.