Playoffs?!!

Wildcard Watch is intended to overview — with an optimistic slant — the Commanders’ path to the playoffs for the ‘23 season, such as it is. This will be the fourth different time in which I’ve launched this series somewhere in the middle of the season, but Washington has yet to reach the playoffs in any season when I’ve written the articles, so, yes, I understand the long-shot nature of the undertaking. Hope springs eternal…

I had planned to publish the first Wildcard Watch article of the 2023 season following the team’s Week 7 victory over the Giants in the Meadowlands, but I think we all know how that turned out. After seeing the team lose to the Giants in the fashion they did, I pledged not to even think the word ‘playoffs’ until the team was a full game over .500, but after the past two weeks (Eagles and Patriots) I’ve decided to gird my loins and take the plunge. Consider me to be a thought leader on the cutting edge of the Commanders ‘23 postseason campaign (or don’t…up to you).

I intend to publish the Wildcard Watch as a weekly series for as long as Washington has a reasonable chance of earning a playoff spot.

A total of 9 losses on the season by Washington at any point will probably bring the series to an abrupt end.

Until then, I’ll keep my eye on the playoff prize and ignore the 2024 draft for as long as there’s a chance at the postseason.

If you aren’t interested in this kind of article, now would be a good time to return to the front page and look for something less optimistic to read.

The thoughts in this article are my own, and do not represent the views of Hogs Haven, its other writers or its managing editor.

After losing 5 out of 6 games, including two losses to the Eagles, most fans of the NFL, including most Washington Commanders fans, were ready to write off the team’s 2023 season. I guess to be fair, many already have. No one is really talking about the playoffs despite Washington’s Week 9 road win over Bill Belichick’s Patriots

With a losing record and three horrendous losses (Bills, Bears, Giants), it’s easy for fans to give up on the season, especially after the team traded away Montez Sweat and Chase Young — trading away starting players at premium positions is usually a sign that the front office has already shifted its sights to next year.

But there are a few factors to consider before accepting that the ‘23 season is over and playoffs simply aren’t a realistic hope.

1. The expansion of the playoffs to 7 teams per conference means it creates more opportunity for a team that hovers right around .500 to grab a spot in the postseason, and once you’re in, anything is possible.
2. A lot of NFC teams are struggling just as much as the Commanders, and some of them are having worse luck. The 5-4 Vikings lost Kirk Cousins to an Achilles tendon tear and traded for Joshua Dobbs (who turned in an amazing performance on Sunday to beat the Falcons); the 2-7 Giants just lost Daniel Jones to an ACL injury; the Falcons have benched Desmond Ridder and Arthur Smith shaved his mustache; the Cardinals, Panthers and Bears are basically out of contention and just accumulating losses and draft position right now.
3. In some ways, the Commanders are trending in the right direction. Mainly, I’m talking about Sam Howell, but many of the team’s young players showed signs of being ready for prime time this past Sunday against the Patriots.

It might be hard to believe, but the Commanders are right in the thick of the ‘fight’ for the 7th seed, and despite a difficult schedule in the final 8 games of the season, have a fighting chance to land the 6th or 7th seed in the NFC postseason.

With 7 seeds available in the NFC, Washington currently sits in the 8th position, one game behind the Vikings, who rallied for a win on Sunday, but who face a tough road ahead with Cousins out for the season.

If the season ended today

If the season ended today, the Commanders would miss the cut. You can see the 4 division winners circled in red (East, North, West, South). The three wildcard teams are circled in blue.

To get into the playoffs, Washington needs to stay ahead of the 4 teams behind them that are ‘still in the hunt’, and — by Week 18 — pass one or more of the three teams in blue that currently sit in the wildcard position. (Note: with 8 games left, anything can happen. For example, the Falcons could replace the Saints as the #1 team in the South, but I will discuss the standings as they currently are to avoid the confusion of trying to consider and detail the seemingly infinite possibilities that could play out over the final two months of the season. Since this will be a weekly article, I’ll provide updated commentary as teams rise and fall.)

It should be of interest that the Commanders will play a number of teams in the NFC playoff picture in November, December or January. Specifically, they will play the Seahawks (this week), Cowboys (twice), Rams, and 49ers. Wins against Seattle, Dallas and LA in particular, would greatly enhance Washington’s opportunity to secure a playoff seeding.

The Commanders path to the playoffs

You may have noticed that Hogs Haven contributing writers have been making picks each week all season. Whether it’s been just picking winners or picking against the spread, I’ve generally been able to get more predictions right than wrong. In picking the winning team, I have been right 65% of the time this season; picking against the spread, I have a 57% success rate.

In short, I don’t pretend for a moment that I can predict wins & losses for a half-dozen teams over a two-month period, but I think that it’s worth having a model that can be used from week to week to chart a path to the playoffs for the Commanders, as long as such a path reasonably exists.

And that’s what you’ll see below — a model that is designed to show, not how the Commanders will fail to make it, but a model that shows what seems to be a reasonable path to the postseason (note I said ‘reasonable’, not ‘most likely’).

That means that when I predict a win or loss in the chart below, if the game is anything close to a 50-50 call, I will predict the outcome that is most likely to help the Commanders get to the playoffs. So, for example, I’m absolutely predicting that Washington will beat the Seahawks, Rams and Dallas (twice) since those games improve Washington’s record, hurt the records of teams ahead of us, and create tie-breaker advantages in determining playoff seedings. In short, I’m stacking the deck in favor of the Commanders in Scenario A.

Scenario A

In this scenario, THREE NFC teams finish with 9-8 records, and would qualify for the 5th, 6th & 7th seeds while the other 5 teams shown here finish with between 6 and 8 wins each and out of the playoffs.

In Scenario A, the Commanders, Falcons and Cowboys all finish with 9 wins.

To determine the seedings for these three wildcard teams, tie-breaking procedures would be applied.

The first 3-team tie-breaker (Scenario A)

The first tie-breaker is head-to-head competition. The good news here is that the Commanders played both teams in 2023.

Because the Cowboys and Falcons did not play against each other in 2023, however, we have to skip this tie-breaker for now.

The second 3-team tie-breaker (Scenario A)

The second tie-breaker is conference record. In Scenario A, the Commanders & Falcons each have a 7-5 record against NFC teams while Dallas has a 6-6 record in the conference.

Dallas loses this tie-breaker and becomes the #7 seed.

Washington and Atlanta move on to the next tie-breaker.

The first 2-team tie-breaker (Scenario A)

With only two teams left (Falcons & Commanders), we move to the 2-team tie-breaking criteria, which takes us back to head-to-head competition.

The Falcons lost to the Commanders the only time they played this season, in Week 6.

Washington wins the tie-breaker and becomes the #5 seed.

Atlanta becomes the #6 seed under Scenario A.

Scenario B

In this scenario, I will change only one outcome. Instead of the Commanders sweeping Dallas in 2023, Washington will lose to the Cowboys in Week 12.

This changes the playoff seeding entirely.

Dallas finishes as the only 10-win team and is awarded the #5 seed.

Atlanta finishes as the only 9-win team and is awarded the #6 seed.

Four teams — Washington, Seattle, Minnesota, and Tampa Bay — have 8 wins each. Tie breakers need to be applied to decide who gets the #7 seed.

The first 3-team tie-breaker (Scenario B)

The first tie-breaker for 3 teams is head-to-head competition. .

• Vikings lost to Tampa Bay in Week 1
• Seattle is predicted to lose Washington in Week 10

Because not every one of the 4 teams has played each of the others, this tie breaker does not apply, so we move to the next tie-breaker and continue until the seedings are determined.

The second 3-team tie-breaker (Scenario B)

The second tie-breaker for 3 teams is best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.

In this case, Washington and Seattle have conference records of 6-6 while the Vikings and Buccaneers each have 7-5 records.

The Commanders and Seahawks would be eliminated.

The Vikings and Buccaneers would go to the third tie-breaker.

The 2-team tie breaker (Scenario B)

Once we have only 2 teams, we shift from 3-team tie-breakers to 2-team tie breakers, which means that we go back to head-to-head competition.

As mentioned, Tampa Bay won the opening week game against the Vikings.

The Buccaneers would be awarded the #7 seed in Scenario B.

The Vikings would be eliminated from the playoffs.

Summary

I’ve tried to show in Scenario A an achievable path to the playoffs for the Commanders.

In Scenario B, I’ve tried to show how a change in the outcome of just a single game can significantly change the teams that qualify and the order of their seeding.

I’ve also tried to illustrate how the tie-breakers work, since they are typically an important part of playoff seeding.

In both models, I have predicted the outcomes of 60 NFL games between now and Week 18. The only thing I know for sure is that those 60 predictions will not all be correct. My purpose in this article and with these projections is not to try to accurately predict the playoff seedings for the NFC, but to focus on identifying a path to the playoffs for the Commanders, and to review the rules for playoff seeding along the way.

Going forward, week by week, as results of games become known and the number of future possibilities diminishes, we can use the model with greater and greater certainty. For now, it is only a model designed to discuss possibilities, and to identify what the Commanders probably need to accomplish to reach the postseason as a wildcard team.

It starts with a win in Seattle

With a 4-5 record, Washington cannot lose more than 2 or 3 games in the regular season and have any hope of making the playoffs.

As you can see, it also matters which games are won and lost. When tie-breakers are applied, losses to NFC teams are potentially more damaging than losses to AFC teams, and head-to-head results with other playoff contenders can have a massive effect on seeding.

Washington needs to win in Week 10 because (1) the team needs the “W”, (2) the team needs to bolster its conference record, and (3) a win provides the advantage for the first tie-breaker — head-to-head competition — against the Seahawks. This week’s road trip to the great northwest is critical to Washington’s playoff hopes.

Glass half-full

The good news is that Ron Rivera’s Washington teams have played well this time of year, with a 9-2 record in the last 11 games that the burgundy & gold have played in November.

More importantly, a lot of things seem to be coming together for Washington. Sam Howell is playing better every week; the new offensive line combination seems to be playing better than the one that played the first 7 weeks; Eric Bieniemy seems to have hit his stride as a play caller since the debacle in New York, and the Commanders defense has held opponents to 17 points or less in 3 of the past 4 games.

The Commanders may have limped through some ugly football games in September and October, but with a strong offensive performance against the Eagles in Week 8 and road win against New England in Week 9, perhaps the stage is set for a mid-season surge behind our second=year quarterback and his young supporting cast.

Week 10 rooting guide for games involving NFC teams

Carolina at Chicago – Washington has Chicago’s 2nd round pick. We want to maximize that value. Root for the Panthers to keep start pounding.

San Francisco at Jacksonville – root for the AFC team – Go Jags!

New Orleans at Minnesota – Washington will never get the 2023 head-to-head tie breaker advantage against the Saints that it has against the Falcons. We want the Saints to win the NFC South and the Vikings, who currently occupy 7th place in the NFC, to lose. Cheer for the Saints to march out of Minny with a win.

Green Bay at Pittsburgh – cheer for the AFC; the Steelers need to send the cheese heads home with an “L”.

Tennessee at Tampa Bay – AFC over NFC — Titan up!

Atlanta at Arizona – Root for the 1-8 Cardinals to upset the 4-5 Falcons in the battle of Taylor Heinicke against Kyler Murray.

Detroit at LA Chargers – I can’t think of any reason not to root for the AFC team here. Back the Chargers in the battle of powder-blue uniforms.

NY Giants at Dallas – as improbable as it is, root for Tommy DeVito and the Giants to upset the Cowboys on the road (yeah, I know; I know).

Tie breaking procedures

Here are the NFL’s tie-breaking procedures:

To Break A Tie Within A Division

If, at the end of the regular season, two or more clubs in the same division finish with identical won-lost-tied percentages, the following steps will be taken until a champion is determined.

Two Clubs

• Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs).
• Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
• Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
• Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
• Strength of victory in all games.
• Strength of schedule in all games
• Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
• Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
• Best net points in common games.
• Best net points in all games.
• Best net touchdowns in all games.
• Coin toss

Three or More Clubs

(Note: If two clubs remain tied after one-or-more clubs are eliminated during any step, tiebreaker restarts at Step 1 of two-club format. If three clubs remain tied after a fourth club is eliminated during any step, tiebreaker restarts at Step 1 of three-club format.)

• Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games among the clubs).
• Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
• Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
• Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
• Strength of victory in all games.
• Strength of schedule in all games.
• Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
• Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
• Best net points in common games.
• Best net points in all games.
• Best net touchdowns in all games.
• Coin toss

To Break A Tie For The Wild-Card Team

If it is necessary to break ties to determine the three Wild-Card clubs from each conference, the following steps will be taken.

– If the tied clubs are from the same division, apply division tiebreaker.

– If the tied clubs are from different divisions, apply the following steps.

Two Clubs

• Head-to-head, if applicable.
• Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
• Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
• Strength of victory in all games.
• Strength of schedule in all games.
• Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
• Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
• Best net points in conference games.
• Best net points in all games.
• Best net touchdowns in all games.
• Coin toss.

Three or More Clubs

(Note: If two clubs remain tied after one-or-more clubs are eliminated during any step, tiebreaker restarts at Step 1 of two-club format. If three clubs remain tied after a fourth club is eliminated during any step, tiebreaker restarts at Step 2 of three-club format.)

Apply division tiebreaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. The original seeding within a division upon application of the division tiebreaker remains the same for all subsequent applications of the procedure that are necessary to identify the two Wild-Card participants.

• Head-to-head sweep. (Applicable only if one club has defeated each of the others or if one club has lost to each of the others.)
• Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
• Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
• Strength of victory in all games.
• Strength of schedule in all games.
• Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
• Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
• Best net points in conference games.
• Best net points in all games.
• Best net touchdowns in all games.
• Coin toss