Washington’s choice at number two is clear

After a ridiculous amount of hand wringing about what Washington should do with the number two pick in the draft this year, I think I’m back where I started from. That said, it’s been a long, strange trip.

I confess, I’ve been all over the map, in large part because I don’t trust my own ability to evaluate film on college QBs in a way that meaningfully projects their future in the NFL. I’ve said, time and again, I rely almost entirely upon the evaluations of “trusted voices” in the evaluation community to shape my perspective. That said, I don’t rely singularly on anyone’s opinion, even the guy I trust most in this space. After all, no evaluator is perfect.

But, three weeks out from the draft, I’m ready to plant my flag. Having reviewed the evidence, the choice seems pretty clear. I’ll lay out my justification – via proxies – below, but Washington should run to the podium to select LSU’s Jayden Daniels with the number two pick in the 2024 NFL draft.

Chris Simms

As I wrote in the article linked above, former QB Chris Simms – while not perfect – is the best of the publicly-commenting college QB evaluators that I’ve come across (and I’ve asked, repeatedly, for alternates, who all came up short upon investigation).

Simms has gotten overly cute in the past, particularly in the 2021 draft, where he ranked Zach Wilson above Trevor Lawrence, but, he’s also been ahead of the “consensus” on several other picks, including Patrick Mahomes – who he declared as having “the highest ceiling” in the 2017 draft.

This year, Simms has Caleb Williams as head and shoulders above the rest of the QB options, but Daniels in a second “#1 in other years” tier, by himself:

What does Simms like about Daniels?

“He’s a special player. In years where it’s maybe not Caleb Williams or Patrick Mahomes, Jayden Daniels is clearly the number one pick in the draft. He can replicate his mechanics throw after throw. That’s how you become a machine. The arm is really good. The running is elite. He’s going to come into the NFL and arguably be the second best running QB in football right off the bat, because I’m still going to give Justin Fields number one. He’s going to challenge Lamar as the number two best running QB in football though. He runs like an elite NFL wide receiver when he breaks the pocket. And, like Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels does not need space to throw the football. You’re going to have people in your face, you’re going to have to throw off your back foot, and still hit the bullseye. Jayden Daniels can do that all day long. Jayden Daniels is damn good, elite traits, and he is a big time starting NFL QB.”

Before the 2023 draft, Simms offered that CJ Stroud stood alone in his “tier 1,” and that it wasn’t particularly close with Bryce Young next in line.

JT O’Sullivan

Another former NFL journeyman QB, O’Sullivan played in the NFL and NFL Europe off and on for the better part of a decade. He has a series called the “QB School” where he has been breaking down QB play on YouTube for years, and he offers a highly informed perspective on QB mechanics, processing, and film evaluation.

Recently, he sat down with draft commentator Brett Kollmann from Bootleg Football to discuss the top QB options in the NFL draft.

What does O’Sullivan think of Daniels?

“He’s definitely going in the top 3. I came away really impressed with Jayden as a dude and as a person. I was super stoked that he had such a good year. I think he, coming from the Brian Kelly experiment/experience, can be a lot of different things to a lot of different players, specifically for QBs. But I think it’s a structured, rigid system, that asks him to do specific things, and I thought he did a great job of doing what they asked him to do. So, if you want to get on him for throwing so many inside fades, well, he’s not calling the plays. And, he’s throwing it to them. He has fucking dudes. I’m throwing inside fades to them too. Make the defense not play middle field closed man and we’ll stop throwing inside fades.

I think it’s fair to say, “In the league it’s going to be hard to just say, one run, one, two run and I’m the fastest guy on the field. You still might be fast, you still might be one of the best QB runners in the league, but those dudes are fast too. It’s just different.

I don’t think he wants to be a guy who runs for 100 yards a week, even if he could do it. That balance, on what that looks like, for him to continue to develop from the within the pocket, because I do think he throws it pretty well – everything except the heater-heater, the fastball, fastball, fastball. Everything else is pretty good. I really like his stroke. I think it’s super consistent. I think he throws with nice touch, but making sense of “hey, I’m one of the best athletes on the field, I’m a deer,” to “let’s be smart with it.” I have a lot of good things to say about Jayden. It was fun to watch him from a distance and to see him thrive on such a high platform.

Kollmann: If he goes at #2, I do have confidence he’s going to succeed there because of what he did at LSU. I think it kind of translates to what Kliff is going to have him do with the Commanders, which is, “Hey we’re going to use him in the run game to scare them into giving us the middle of field closed structures, and hey, we have Terry McClaurin and Jahan Dotson, and if we want to throw inside fades, we can throw inside fades. I feel like Jayden fits that type of system.”

O’Sullivan: I admit, I’m terrible about talking about fit, but I know Kliff more than I know most of those other guys, and I would just say that I hope Kliff re-enters the league, re-enters the play calling world with a more robust edge plan. What I mean by that is, I don’t think it’s advantageous to have open edges as much as Kliff would like to. What I mean by that is “tackle, no one, wide receiver.” I think if he’s learned his lesson, or learned a lesson, to be a little bit more multiple. You don’t have to be a 13 personnel team, but just add movement, make the QB say “I’m not an issue over here, and I can be hot over here,” as opposed to open edge, both sides, it’s just a tough world to live in.

Interestingly, O’Sullivan had Bryce Young as his number one last year, based largely on the results of a work out session that he observed.

Kurt Benkert

Benkert is yet another journeyman QB who spent time with Atlanta, Green Bay, and San Francisco in the NFL over a 5-year period. He currently hosts a podcast called “Pocket Presence,” where he routinely breaks down film on college and pro QBs.

What does Benkert think of Daniels?

“He has the highest ceiling of any QB in this draft class. Yes, Caleb Williams is a really good player, but Jayden Daniels, what he can do when the play breaks down, his open field speed, and everything in between, I think he has a really high ceiling.

He is a natural thrower, and this is why I’m saying he reminds me of CJ Stroud. If you are an NFL scout watching this game (against Alabama), I promise you, that checks every single box of what is his ability and what is he capable of doing in the NFL. This is all you need right here.

What I saw was a guy who had every tool imaginable, checked every box, hit every wishlist granted for these coaches and what they hope to have out of a franchise QB. And his ceiling is so high. You match that with a good scheme, with good players around him, a good coaching staff that can be accountable for the rest of the team. This dude can be so, so good. We could see a CJ Stroud type of year out of this guy in year 1 if he goes to the right place with the right situation.

If you do nothing else, I’d encourage you to watch the All-22 film review Benkert does of Daniels below. He dispels most of the myths around Daniels’ shortcomings with explicit examples. It’s well-worth your time.

Benkert had Stroud over Young in the lead up to the 2023 draft, based on the idea that Stroud’s ceiling was higher.

Conclusion

All three of the evaluators above are former NFL QBs, and none of them were particularly good at it. Some will take that as a fatal weakness in their credentials. I tend to look at it as a potential strength. QBs fail in the NFL for a variety of reasons, but I suspect most fail because they lack the requisite combination of mental and physical chops to succeed.

Occasionally, you’ll get a Jeff George or a Jamarcus Russell, a million dollar arm attached to a 10-cent head, but far more frequently you’ll find QBs with the mental ability to play the game well, but lacking the physical tools to make it work at the pro level. In my estimation, all these evaluators fall into that category.

When they watch quarterbacks, they know what they’re looking at in terms of reading defensive alignments, shortcomings in offensive play calling, and the proficiency of talent around the QBs. All three of these evaluators have watched the top QB talent in this draft and come to the same conclusion: Jayden Daniels is particularly special, and that he might even end up being the best QB in the 2024 draft. Conversely, they’ve all come to the conclusion that UNC’s Drake Maye is being wildly over-regarded, and that he still needs considerable development in order to have a shot at being a legitimate NFL QB.

At the end of the day, I’ll get behind whichever QB Adam Peters and his front office selects, but for the next three weeks, I’m going to be hoping that ends up being Jayden Daniels.