What is the Commanders’ Chance of Hitting on a Franchise QB with Their First Round Pick?

A search for clues in historical draft results over the decade from 2012 to 2021

Prior to the 2022 draft, I did a deep dive into the probabilities of drafting quarterbacks, which led to the conclusion that the Washington NFL franchise had been making the decades long search for a franchise quarterback much harder and more prolonged than it needed to be.

Since drafting QBs in the first round has become the main topic of offseason conversation once again, I felt it would be timely to revisit the probability of drafting a franchise QB with the Commanders’ first pick in the draft, based on historical hit rates.

What do we mean by “Franchise QB”?

Before we get to the numbers, we have to decide on what we mean by a franchise QB. I have often found that discussions on this topic become vexed because everyone uses the term to mean different things.

In past analyses I have used a minimal standard to define a franchise QB. That is a QB good enough to become a long-term starter for the team that drafted him. I defined that in terms of signing a long-term extension during or after the end of the player’s rookie contract.

We can think of that as the pass-fail criterion. If the team moved on from the player before their rookie contract expired, or let them walk in free agency afterwards, the draftee was clearly a bust in the eyes of that team that drafted them.

Often people use the term “franchise quarterback” to mean more than just an adequate starter. In a recent Hogs Haven comments thread, regular contributor Barnunn suggested that we should have higher expectations of a QB drafted second overall than being just good enough to hang around past their rookie contract.

Barnunn raises a very good point. I think it’s safe to say that a significant section of the fanbase, if not the overwhelming majority, would be disappointed if Adam Peter’s came away with anything less than a QB capable of leading Washington back to playoff contention.

Therefore, in this analysis I used two different standards to measure the hit rate for drafting franchise quarterbacks as viewed from the perspective of the drafting team and their fans:

Minimum Standard – Long Term Starter: A long term starter was defined as a QB who was signed to a long-term extension by the drafting team, at starting money (as determined by the eyeball test), during or after the end of their rookie contract, with the intention of keeping them on as the long term starter. The last part of the definition becomes important in a few cases.

Three QBs fall into a gray area because the drafting team had second thoughts shortly after extending them. Carson Wentz and Jared Goff were classified as misses, because the drafting teams clearly felt the need to move on to upgrade the QB position.

DeShaun Watson is a unique case in which the decision was based on off-the-field considerations. The Texans clearly valued Watson as a high-end starter when they traded him to Cleveland in exchange for a massive haul of draft capital (three 1^st round picks, two 3^rd round picks, two 4^th round picks). Therefore, I classified Watson as a hit in this analysis.

It is possible that Daniel Jones could flip from a “hit” to a “miss” this offseason, depending on what the Giants do in the draft. Until something changes, he is a hit.

Lastly, events in the last few weeks have allowed me to include the 2021 draft class in the analysis, since the four first-round QBs not named Trevor Lawrence have all been released or traded by the teams that drafted them. It would be such a surprise if the Jaguars did not extend Lawrence that I am comfortable classifying him as a hit. Finally, while Tua Tagovailoa and Jordan Love from the 2020 draft class have not inked long term extensions yet, I’m also counting them as gimmes.

Higher Standard – Playoff Winner: A higher standard for a franchise QB is a player who is capable of elevating his team to playoff success. To address the heightened expectations of many in the fanbase, I also estimated hit rates for drafting QBs who led their teams to playoff wins. The question here became what level of playoff success counts as meeting expectations.

Starting at the very top, how about Super Bowl winners? Only three QBs drafted from 2012 through 2021 have won Super Bowls for the drafting team, and only one of those was drafted in the first round (Patrick Mahomes pick #10, Russell Wilson pick #75, Nick Foles pick #88). For those who are interested, the hit rate for drafting Super Bowl winning QBs in the first round in the decade in question was 3%, unless you credit the Super Bowl LII win to Carson Wentz despite him not finishing the season or playing in the playoffs, in which case it rises to 6%.

Super Bowl wins is clearly too high a standard to produce meaningful results. Lowering the bar to multiple seasons with a playoff win (7 hits), or playoff wins beyond the Wild Card round (5 hits), also returned small samples for reliable analysis of hit rates.

In order to get the number of hits as high as possible, I set yjr minimum standard for a hit as a QB who won at least one playoff game for the team that drafted him. This criterion identified 10 “hits” out of 33 QBs drafted in the first round from 2012 through 2021.

It may still be early to write the book on first round QBs drafted in 2020 and 2021. So think of this as setting the criterion as playoff success within the first three years in those cases. I don’t

Playoff wins for teams other than the drafting team were excluded from consideration. We are interested in the chance of drafting a QB to lead the Commanders to playoff success, not a team that picks him up after the Commanders have moved on. Lastly, I didn’t consider any criteria based on playoff appearances, because I don’t believe in participation awards.

Photo by Kara Durrette/Getty Images

Hit Rates for Drafting Long Term Starters

To start, lets have a look at where long-term starters were drafted in the first round from 2012 through 2021:

*Long term extension expected

Thirteen out of 33 QBs drafted in the first round over the decade met the criterion as long-term starters, or in the cases of Trevor Lawrence and Jordan Love are expected to do so. The first thing you probably noticed is that they were not spread around the first round equally. 85% of long-term starters were drafted in the first 12 picks. And there is a big gap between picks 2 and 4, where a lot of QBs have been drafted.

Clearly all first-round picks are not equal. To make the analysis of hit rates relevant to the Commanders’ picks and possible trade-back destinations, I broke the first round into pick ranges that were suggested to me by the data, as follows (draft pick numbers in parentheses):

Commanders fans who have spent the past six weeks debating which QB to pick second overall might notice something a little disturbing about these results. No QB drafted second or third overall during the 10 drafts in question became the long-term starter for the team that drafted him. C.J. Stroud, drafted second overall by the Texans last year, appears to be on pace to break the drought of QB draft success in this range. If he does, he will become the first long term starter drafted between the 2^nd and 4^th picks since the Atlanta Falcons drafted Matt Ryan 3^rd overall in 2008.

As expected, teams drafting first overall have enjoyed much better success, hitting on 57% of their picks in this timeframe. That hit rate is consistent with the long-term average success rate of QBs drafted with the first pick.

The second big surprise is how successful teams have been at drafting QBs from picks 5 through 12. From 2012 through 2021, teams hit on long-term starters at an amazing 78% of their picks in this range.

It should come as little surprise that, from the middle of the first round, the hit rate for drafting long-term starters drops sharply. QB prospects who project as starters are grabbed up by teams in the top 10. Those that remain on the board after that typically have significant question marks in their draft profiles or are considered development projects. The occasional hidden gem can still be found after the top 10, like Lamar Jackson and Jordan Love, but they become increasingly outnumbered by QBs who won’t become starters after that point in the draft.

Hit Rates for Drafting Playoff Winners

To some Commanders’ fans, just hitting on a long-term starting QB would be like entering the promised land after years of wandering the wilderness since Lawrence Taylor ended Joe Theismann’s tenure. Many others will not be happy with a QB picked in the first round if he doesn’t lead the team back to playoff contention. For those readers who hold first-round QBs to a higher standard, I also calculated hit rates for drafting QBs who won at least one playoff game.

I also included a measure of playoff success in the data that I have used previously. Playoff success was quantified by calculating points based on the level of playoff finish in each year a drafted QB won. Points are awarded based on the highest playoff game won in a season as follows: Super Bowl 8, Conference Championship 4, Divisional Playoff 2, Wild Card Playoff 1. Playoff points are in parentheses.

Setting the criterion at playoff wins for the drafting team shuffles some of the players around, and dramatically alters the hit rate in the range from pick 5 through 13 (actually 12, since QBs are never picked 13^th). The rest of the picture remains pretty similar.

While the names change at pick #1, the hit rate stays the same. That is because Jared Goff and Baker Mayfield, who won playoff games for the teams that drafted them have swapped places with Kyler Murray and Trevor Lawrence who haven’t.

Recently adopted Commander, Marcus Mariota breaks the drought of draft success from picks 2 to 4 by virtue of a Wild Card playoff win for the Titans in 2017. Hopefully his success will give comfort to Commanders’ fans who aren’t already banging the table to trade back.

The biggest change brought about by basing the success criterion on playoff wins is a drop from 78% success rate to 33% at picks 5 through 13 (12 if you like). That is because four of the QBs drafted in this range (Tua Tagovailoa, Justin Herbert, Daniel Jones, Ryan Tannehill) have not won a playoff game for the team that drafted them. Tua has got the Dolphins to the Wild Card round for two seasons in a row, but has yet to win in the post season. Justin Herbert has one Wild Card loss. Tannehill won a Wild Card game with the Titans, but never with the Dolphins who drafted him.

Patrick Mahomes, picked 10^th overall, has dominated the playoffs since he was drafted. After him, the most successful first-round QB in the playoffs has been Joe Burrow, with one Conference Championship finish, and one Divisional Playoff win. Jared Goff took the Rams to a Super Bowl and won a Wild Card playoff for them before they traded him for Matt Stafford. Josh Allen has led his team to playoff wins in four of the six seasons since he was drafted, with the highest being a Divisional round playoff. The only other QBs to win playoffs for their drafting teams in more than one season were Andrew Luck and Lamar Jackson.

Hit rates for drafting playoff-winning QBs in the second half of the first round are the same as for drafting long-term starters, because the hits are the same two guys.

Hit Rates for Long-Term Starters Who Won Playoff Games

That’s all well and good, but will we really be happy if the Commanders draft a QB who wins a Wild Card playoff for us and then gets let go after his rookie contract or traded away for a conditional 6^th round pick? The minimal standard that would appease the fanbase is more likely to be a QB who becomes a long-term starter and leads the team on regular playoff runs.

Forget regular. That’s too hard. The only QBs drafted from 2012 through 2021 who could be said to have won playoff games for their team on a regular basis were Russell Wilson, Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes, and Wilson wasn’t a first round pick (first round hit rate = 6%). To wrap this up, let’s end with long-term starters who won at least one playoff game for the team that drafted them:

Ouch! The truth is, it’s hard to win playoff games on a regular basis because, when you get to the playoffs, you meet other playoff teams.

The only QBs drafted in the first round, from 2012 through 2021, who became long-term starters and won at least one playoff game for the team that drafted them were: Joe Burrow, Andrew Luck, Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Deshaun Watson and Lamar Jackson. That’s a star-studded list. If Jordan Love gets extended, which seems like a shoe-in, that would bring the total to 7 out of 33 QBs drafted in the first round, for a hit rate of 21%.

Raising the bar one step further to playoff wins in two or more seasons eliminates Deshaun Watson and Jordan Love, dropping the overall hit rate for first round QBs to 15%.

Photo by Michael Hickey/Getty Images

Summary and Conclusion

The hit rate for drafting long-term starting QBs 2^nd or 3^rd overall from 2012 through 2021 was 0%, despite 8 attempts and four costly trades (RG3, Wentz, Trubisky, Darnold, Lance).

The hit rate for QBs drafted later in first half of the first round was even higher than for QBs selected first overall in the decade in question.

My conclusion is, if you are expecting the QB the Commanders draft second overall to become a long-term starter and lead the team on regular playoff runs, you are betting against the odds. They might get lucky, but more likely than not you are setting yourself up for disappointment.

It might be better for your mental health to lower your expectations to just a long-term starter. In that case, all you have to worry about is why teams have done so poorly drafting QBs at picks 2 through 4. Don’t ask me why that is. The best explanation I can come up with is that teams drafting in weak draft classes, or those not holding the first overall pick and needing quarterbacks, might be prone to wishful thinking about the available options. That is not fully satisfying, however, because it doesn’t explain the large number of starting quality QBs who have remained available at picks 5 through 12.

Whatever the explanation, trading back to acquire more draft picks and picking a QB later in the top 12 might not be as crazy as some suggest.