What tendencies can we find in how first round QBs succeed?

Yesterday, MattinBrisVegas published a fascinating piece entitled, “What is the Commanders’ Chance of Hitting on a Franchise QB with Their First Round Pick?” The article explored the rather dreadful odds of hitting on a “franchise QB,” almost regardless of how one defines the term.

The results of the most liberal interpretation in Matt’s piece, which looked at QBs drafted from 2012 to 2021, can be found in the table below:

The inclusion, or removal, of one or two of these QBs might be debatable, but I think that – overall – it’s a good starting point for the conversation.

After having read, and then considered, the piece, something jumped out to me that I hadn’t ever really considered until the data was sliced this way: A lot of those “hits” in the last two columns had something rather unusual in common. We’ll call this group “Cluster 1.”

Cluster 1

That commonality was that all of them were the product of trade-ups. Their franchise, very likely, saw something specifically in them and cobbled together the draft capital to move up specifically for them.

• Patrick Mahomes – Kansas City goes from 27 to 10 (2017)
• Deshaun Watson – Houston goes up from 25 to 12 (2017)
• Josh Allen – Buffalo goes from 12 to 7 (2018)
• Lamar Jackson – Baltimore goes from 52 to 32 (2018)
• Jordan Love – Green Bay goes from 30 to 26 (2020)

Also in common is that all five of these players were drafted onto already good teams. The records of their teams in the year before they arrived can be found below:

• Kansas City – 12-4 (lost divisional playoffs)
• Houston – 9-7 (lost divisional playoffs)
• Buffalo – 9-7 (lost wild card)
• Baltimore – 9-7
• Green Bay – 13-3 (lost conference playoffs)

Despite the fact that some fans perceive such notions as “old fashioned,” none of these players started as QB1 during their rookie season, and none of them started more than 11 games that year. Games started rookie year:

• Mahomes – 1 (1-0) (would begin season 2 as starter)
• Watson – 6 (3-3) (would begin season 2 as starter)
• Allen – 11 (5-6) (would begin season 2 as starter)
• Jackson – 7 (6-1) (would begin season 2 as starter)
• Love – 1 (0-1) (would begin season 3 as starter)

Each of these players, none drafted higher than #7 overall, had key deficiencies coming out in the draft that caused them to slip. Each of these teams knew those deficiencies, and likely figured they could address them:

Patrick Mahomes (2017)

Mahomes is a big, confident quarterback who brings a variety of physical tools to the party, but he’s developed some bad habits and doesn’t have a very repeatable process as a passer. Mahomes’ ability to improvise and extend plays can lead to big plays for his offense, but he will have to prove he can operate with better anticipation and be willing to take what the defense gives him in order to win from the pocket. Mahomes will be a work in progress, but he’s a high ceiling, low floor prospect.

Deshaun Watson (2017)

Teams will have to weigh the inconsistent field vision and decision-making against his size, athleticism, leadership and production. While not perfect, teams can add checks to both arm and accuracy boxes for Watson. However, discussions about whether or not his areas of improvement can be corrected will likely determine whether a team will view him as a high-upside prospect or a franchise quarterback. Watson’s transition from Clemson’s offense to a pro-style attack will obviously take time, but his combination of intangibles and athletic ability make him worth a first-round selection.

Josh Allen (2018)

As a developmental prospect, Allen has the traits that make coaches drool. His arm talent, athleticism, football IQ and personality are all ideal. The question every front office will ask is if it can get the most out of him.

Many will make excuses for Allen’s struggles (two-year starter at Wyoming, poor supporting cast, etc.), but evaluators are taught to see Allen’s strengths, and he has plenty of those.

Lamar Jackson (2018)

His game isn’t a natural fit for the NFL and will require development, but Jackson has game-changing athleticism and playmaking skills.

Jordan Love (2021)

Challenging evaluation for quarterback-needy teams balancing traits and potential against disappointing 2019 tape. Staff turnover and new starters across the offense are partly to blame for his regression, but self-made flaws in process were also concerns. Love’s accuracy took a step back, and his delayed reaction from “see it” to “throw it” when making reads is troubling. He has the arm to stick throws into tight windows but needs better eye discipline and anticipation to keep windows open. His size, mobility and arm talent combined with his 2018 flashes could be a winning hand that leads a team into the future or a siren’s song of erratic play and unfulfilled potential.

“Polarizing” was an adjective that was applied to nearly all of these guys at one point or another as well, and it’s fairly easy to see why: Most, if not all, of them didn’t easily fit into the mold of the conventional pocket passer when they were taken in the draft.

Subsequently though, their collective success has likely paved the path for future QBs cut from their molds. That said, in the 2024 draft it’s easy to find articles written about “polarizing” QBs like Jayden Daniels, JJ McCarthy, Michael Penix, and Drake Maye.

“Polarizing” can probably most easily be characterized as a “lack of consensus,” something which can’t be said of this next group.

Cluster 2

This second group stands out pretty clearly from Matt’s table as well, arguably better even than the first. I call these guys the “consensus number one overall QBs.” During this period, Luck, Murray, Burrow, and Lawrence (as well as Caleb Williams this year) were the only overwhelmingly held top QBs in the class. So-called “generational talents.”

Don’t remember the lead up to those drafts? Let me refresh your memory. From pre-draft profiles:

Andrew Luck (2012)

It’s difficult to offer a fresh outlook on Andrew Luck. He’s been anointed the past two seasons as a once-a-decade quarterback prospect. His ceiling as a player may not be as high as Robert Griffin’s, but he comes out of college much more ready for the NFL. If for no other reason, that’s why he should be the No. 1 pick in the draft.

Kyler Murray (2019)

A two-sport star who the Oakland Athletics selected ninth overall in the 2018 MLB draft, Kyler Murray looks to become the first player ever drafted in the top 10 of both the MLB and NFL drafts. He’s a rare athlete with exceptional field vision and arm talent, which is why he’s expected to be the first pick in the 2019 NFL draft. Murray has the rare traits to be successful, but even he makes an immediate splash, he must work hard to keep ahead of defensive coordinators who will scheme specifically to slow him down as a runner and make him pass from the pocket.

Joe Burrow (2020)

Burrow is the best quarterback in the 2020 NFL draft class and one of the best quarterback prospects in the last decade. He’s smart, poised, athletic, accurate and tough. What he lacks in arm strength, he makes up for in preparation and anticipation. Unlike many quarterbacks, Burrow is not scheme-dependent, and he has the tools to elevate the talent around him. He projects as a Day 1 starter with the upside to become a Pro Bowl-level quarterback.

Trevor Lawrence (2021)

Trevor Lawrence has all the tools and makeup to live up to the expectations of a generational franchise quarterback. Overall, Lawrence is living up to the hype he received as the top high school quarterback in the country and looks like a Week 1 franchise quarterback with the upside to win multiple MVPs and only injuries or an incompetent franchise will put him on a path toward failure.

Meanwhile, the other number one overalls: Winston, Goff, Mayfield, and Bryce Young were all the subject of evaluation debates down to the wire with QBs who went in the next pick or two.

The results in this – admittedly abbreviated – case seem to point to the validity of a “wisdom of the crowd” approach when considering these sorts of draft outcomes. The “crowd” isn’t perfect, but when the crowd is divided on the talent of the top QB in the draft, look out, there may be troubled waters ahead.

Cluster 3

This group – at least as far as I can see right now – isn’t so much a cohesive unit, with commonalities, as much as it is the leftovers from the previous two. It includes:

• Ryan Tannehill (2012)
• Daniel Jones (2019)
• Tua Tagovailoa (2020)
• Justin Herbert (2020)

All of these players were drafted by their original teams at their original positions. None of them were the first QB taken in their respective drafts. Tannehill, in his 11-season career has won two playoff games. Jones has won one in five years. Neither Tua nor Herbert have won a playoff game in four years, but their careers are still young.

This – in my opinion – is the type of pool of individuals, if they are fortunate, Washington is likely to be looking at from the #2 pick in the draft.

Let’s take a look at their draft profiles to see what we can glean.

Ryan Tannehill (2012)

Tannehill is a dynamic athlete at quarterback, so much so that he was a major contributor at receiver for his first two-plus years with the Aggies before becoming their starting signal-caller. In his early starts at quarterback, this NFL-sized prospect was more of a gunslinger, but he has now morphed into an effective and efficient passer in the pocket. Tannehill is a also fierce competitor with the overall tools to be a first- or second-round selection and eventual starter in the NFL.

Daniel Jones (2019)

Three-year starter who operates with a rare level of quality mechanics coming from the college game. Jones doesn’t have special arm talent, but he can make pro throws and has the ability to attack deep with accuracy. He completed just 59.9 percent of his career passes, but his receivers — who dropped 38 passes this year alone — really struggled to get open at times. Jones has good football IQ and is relatively mobile, but he appears to be more of a game manager than “franchise” talent. He’s more of a Day 2 draft pick than Day 1. Pro comp: Ryan Tannehill

Tua Tagovailoa (2020)

Talented dual-threat quarterback with winning background, explosive production and loads of experience in high-leverage games. He may be pigeon-holed into a spread or RPO-heavy attack, but he’s actually a clean fit in a pro-style attack filled with play-action and roll-outs. He has the release, accuracy and touch needed to work all three levels successfully and can become a more disciplined, full-field reader to piece the puzzle together against NFL coverages. He needs better poise when pressured, but his escapability not only moves the chains, it creates chunk plays in the air and on the ground. Teams assessing his draft value will need to sift through mounting durability concerns and decide whether he is a “face of the franchise” talent without the abundance of talent surrounding him.

Justin Herbert (2020)

Big, talented full-field scanner able to find the right read and sling it around the yard from the pocket or on the move. Herbert rushed throws in 2018, but he showed marked improvement in that area, excluding the Auburn opener. He trusts his protection while working through coverages and route development and has big-boy arm talent and drive velocity to stress and impress defenses. He’s confident attacking downfield, but touch throws evade him and may have created tentativeness with certain short and intermediate throws. Ball placement requires additional emphasis, but upgrading to NFL skill talent could help him bloom. Herbert has a high ceiling and is the most physically gifted quarterback in the draft, but he doesn’t have as many “wow” plays as expected for someone with his traits, experience and potential. Pro comp: Carson Wentz

Conclusion

In looking at Matt’s analysis and reading through these profiles, I can’t help but think – it’s probably hopeless optimism – that the 2024 draft actually has some substantial commonalities to the 2020 draft, in terms of QB talent.

If Caleb Williams is the Cluster 2 “sure thing” that Joe Burrow was, Jayden Daniels looks like he might be this year’s Tua, with Drake Maye occupying the Justin Herbert role. In a re-draft, which of those two would you take first?

Is it possible that JJ McCarthy could end up as a Cluster 1 success if he goes to a team that trades up for him, like Minnesota? Give him a bit of time to develop, and an offensive coordinator steeped in a Shanahan-style offense like Kevin O’Connell and it’s very easy to imagine.

This is, admittedly, a charitable interpretation of impending events and potential outcomes, and even under those circumstances, the quarterbacks that our selections are being comped to haven’t won playoff games four years in. We’re re-building from the ground up, and patience is going to be necessary.