What the Cowboys’ 30 visits from draft prospects means for this year’s draft strategy

Dallas usually will draft some of these players, so it tells us something about their overall strategy.

Every year, we read tea leaves and search for any other auguries of what the Dallas Cowboys are going to do in the NFL draft. Whatever you think of the eventual results, they seem to have a pretty clear cut process. A certain part of that is one of the most predictive things for what they actually do during the draft. That is the 30 official visits they host at The Star. Those are going on now, but our intrepid staff has ferreted out 20 names that are reported by reliable sources as planned visitors.

Given past history, some of these names are likely to be ones sent to the podium by Dallas during the draft. Last year, Mazi Smith, Viliami Fehoko, DeMarvion Overshown, and Eric Scott all showed up in Frisco prior to being taken by the Cowboys. The year before, Sam Williams, DaRon Bland, Markquese Bell, and Malik Davis all got a trip to team headquarters.

A look back at how those players were acquired shows that they not only use the visits to look at players to be taken in premium spots, but use some for more speculative prospects. The ones that are known so far this year are all players that are projected to go before the seventh round, including 13 that are seen as first- or second-round talents. Given that the Cowboys only have seven picks at the moment and lack one in the fourth round, those seem like players they are more likely to be interested in on days one and two of the draft. The ten names we haven’t heard will likely include some players they are looking at for late on day three, and, as was the case with Bell and Davis, possible priority UDFA targets.

It is not only informative to see who might be possible targets somewhere in the draft, but to pay a lot of attention to the positions the team is bringing in. This year, there seem to be a couple of flashing neon signs pointing to what the team is seeking.

Of the seven highest rated players on their list, five are offensive lineman, and four seem to be worth the Cowboys’s first pick at 24. This includes both tackles and interior line prospects, both of which the team could use. They have a bit of flexibility in Tyler Smith, who could stay at guard or move out to tackle. That could well be determined by who they are able to snag in the early rounds this year. Smith came in and was a day one starter, and if they get offensive line talent with their currently held first-round selection, they will expect the same.

As mentioned, there are two other players that are ranked by the analysts as being in or near the first round, and both are defensive linemen, one DT and one EDGE rusher. Unless Dallas throws us a curve (which admittedly is quite conceivable, given that Smith never visited before becoming a first-round pick for them) we can expect their first draftee to be a big fellow who will work in the trenches.

That intention is glaringly obvious from their known visits, and there are almost as clear signs about what they intend on day two. The next six names on the list, all seen as second-round talents, are, in order, three linebackers, two running backs, and a wide receiver. It can logically be interpreted that the intent of the team is to follow up a lineman, preferably on offense, with a linebacker and a running back in the second and third rounds. The lone wideout seems a hedge against having their board wiped out at that point.

We still have ten names to come that may give us a better indication if there is another option they are considering with their third-rounder, but the picture is already clear. This is a needs driven draft, with the ability to go outside or inside on the offensive line adding a bit of best player available for the first round.

Looking strictly at it from the needs perspective, this is hard to fault for many. The holes at offensive line, linebacker, and running back are probably the most glaring. However, Tom has an objection. He subscribes to the opinion that teams should never take a running back before day three. It is arguably the position that is most able to be filled with late-round players with little impact on the overall effectiveness of the running game. There are some very good college backs that come in and make big contributions in their rookie year. We saw how Ezekiel Elliot performed in his first season, which is the best of his career in Dallas. But his yards per carry had a clear trend downward throughout his time with the Cowboys, which is counter evidence against taking a back early. Other positions can be more valuable over time, with linemen often having long and productive careers. Linebackers also tend to improve over their first few seasons, and wide receivers tend to peak in year three – and sometimes just keep improving, like CeeDee Lamb as a totally random example.

Unfortunately, at least in Tom’s eyes, that is not the way the ownership of the team thinks. And since Jerry and Stephen Jones handle the general manager duties, with final say over the picks, it is not going to be any kind of surprise if they take a running back on day two.

When looking back at past lists of 30 visits for the team, this year is one of the clearest indications of what the team intends to do in the draft. They may pay lip service to best players available, but need is almost always the real driver here. This year, they have created some very pressing ones and left themselves with scant draft capital to fill them. After a very poor showing in the 2023 draft, they cannot afford to miss on any of their picks this year in the first three rounds. Visits are just a component in the board-building process. It gives them a chance to evaluate the intangibles about a player like character and attitude. It is by nature less precise, but can make a difference in how they prioritize the prospects.

Of course, as we saw with Smith, who was a bit of a surprise after not being invited, sometimes they don’t need the visit to put a name high on their own board. But when you add in the names and positions they do bring in, it tips their hand. And we can expect at least a few of the names on this year’s list to be coming to Dallas to sign with the team.