Will Scott Turner be fired on Black Monday?

Not looking good for Scott Turner getting a 4th year in Washington

The Washington Commanders gave Scott Turner a two-year contract extension last March, and he is under contract through the 2024-25 season which matches up with Head Coach Ron Rivera’s deal. He has been with the team since the 2020 season, but his offenses have always received criticism for not getting the most of it’s players. Last year Rivera said in a radio interview that he had spoken with both of his coordinators about changes that needed to be made to improve their sides of the ball.

This season Washington brought in another new QB when they traded multiple Day 2 picks to acquire Carson Wentz. During the preseason you could see Turner trying to retrain a previously broken QB to fit into the type of system he wanted to run. The Commanders retooled their offensive line to accommodate Wentz’s salary that they were afraid to ask the Colts to reduce for fear of losing out on him. The results were a disaster that saw their new QB getting run into the ground because he either couldn’t run Turner’s offense, or he had defenders crashing the pocket in 2 seconds.

When Wentz went down, he was replaced by Washington’s most reliable QB over the last few years. Taylor Heinicke. Scott Turner made changes to the offense, and also got a healthy Brian Robinson back, and the offense found its new identity by grinding it out on the ground and having long, clock-eating drives. Heinicke’s mobility was cut out, and basically ignored as a weapon, but they went on a few winning streaks that made everyone forget some of the faults. The defense started to play up to their potential, and everyone was looking towards a playoff run.

Then it all came crashing down in the month of December. Washington couldn’t beat the New York Giants in New Jersey, and had to settle for a tie. They had a bye week to rework their gameplan for the Giants and try again at home in primetime. I was at that game, and it was painful to watch the offense continue to struggle, and look predictable while having all the smaller issues amplified. Washington went on to lose their next two games to the San Francisco 49ers and the Cleveland Browns. Their playoff run was over, and now everyone is looking to blame someone when there is plenty to go around.

Scott Turner was asked about his job security on Wednesday at what could be his last presser as an OC, at least for Washington:

“I mean, that’s just part of this league, you know, it could happen, it could happen to anybody. It’s happened to guys when they don’t expect it, it’s happened, you know, whatever. So I just do my job. I’m focused on the Cowboys. Whatever happens after this week, you go with it after that. But to me, I’m prepared to coach this game and then get this team ready to go be successful down the road.”

Ron Rivera was asked about Turner yesterday, and he gave a very brief answer:

“I think we’ve had our moments. I think there’s some really good things considering the availability of everybody. You know, it’s been tough.”

This morning the Washington Post published an article talking about player frustrations with the offensive playcalling that has been brewing all season.

Nine other Commanders, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to be candid about a coach, expressed frustration with the play-calling. They complained about predictability, an abandonment of the game plan against Cleveland and Turner’s tendency to deviate from plays that are working, which several players described as the coordinator “outsmarting” himself. They suggested Browns defenders had anticipated their plays during the loss, which effectively ended the Commanders’ season.

Fans have been frustrated with Turner’s playcalling for a long time, and it has been frustrating to watch a team with a lot of weapons unable to score when they get into the red zone on a consistent basis. Ron Rivera is likely to finish with a losing record for the third season in a row if Washington loses to the Dallas Cowboys tomorrow. Most coaches with that middling record would be on the hot seat, or already fired by now, but Washington is in a different situation than most teams right now. The ownership issue hangs large of this offseason, and until that is resolved, there likely won’t be any major changes like firing the head coach. Dan and Tanya Snyder are exploring all options for a sale of the team, but have not formally announced that they plan to sell the entire franchise. Even if he doesn’t decide to sell, he still has the Mary Jo White investigation hanging over his head which will likely mean he keeps Rivera on now as his human shield.

That doesn’t limit Ron Rivera’s ability to fire coaches, unless it was specifically limited by the current owner. When the season started, it seemed like Jack Del Rio would be a candidate for a scapegoat for Rivera’s failings as a head coach/GM, but his defense stepped up and he has been a quiet, steady hand for the team this season. Scott Turner on the other hand has not lived up to the expectations that the team and had for the offense. He was extended, but the team needs to make some changes if they’re not going to move on from Rivera after the season. Scott Turner sure looks like he’s going be the guy getting the ax on Black Monday.