Huff for Haason: You’re viewing the NY Jets’ EDGE swap all wrong

New York Jets’ Haason Reddick-for-Bryce Huff swap is not an apples-to-apples comparison

As soon as it was reported that the New York Jets had traded for Philadelphia Eagles edge rusher Haason Reddick, everyone’s mind shifted to Bryce Huff. Since the Jets acquired Reddick from Huff’s new squad, the move began to be collectively viewed as a one-for-one swap: Reddick being brought in as Huff’s direct replacement.

That’s not necessarily the case. Yes, Reddick obviously would not be a Jet today if the team had re-signed Huff, and the Jets clearly traded for him due to the vacancy left by Huff’s exit. With that being said, these two players are far less alike than most think. With Reddick in the fold instead of Huff, the Jets’ defensive front will likely operate differently than it did a year ago.

I still believe the Jets should have handled the Huff saga differently. They had multiple opportunities to extend him before his value skyrocketed, whether that was post-2022 or mid-2023. And if they did not plan to keep him, they should have dealt him at the 2023 trade deadline when their championship hopes were already dashed anyway.

Nonetheless, all of that is in the past. The Jets already made their errors with Huff and lost him for nothing. That left a gaping hole on the edge. And with a player like Reddick, that hole is immediately filled. It’s something the Jets were clearly trying to do over the past few weeks, as they visited with Shaquil Barrett and Jadeveon Clowney before both players elected to sign elsewhere.

And, ultimately, I think the Jets should be thankful for how it all played out. Barrett and Clowney are good veteran players, but Reddick is a star who can match the high-level impact that was lost with Huff – and potentially exceed it, too.

Just in a very different fashion.

Without further ado, let’s dive into all of the ramifications of this trade. How are Huff and Reddick different? What are Reddick’s strengths and weaknesses? What will Reddick’s role be? What does all of this mean for Will McDonald?

This is a massive move with so many layers to it. Time to break it all down.

Reddick brings elite finishing skills, an upgrade over Huff

The main appeal of Reddick’s game is his finishing ability.

The former first-round pick started his career as an inside linebacker. However, he broke out in his fourth season after the Cardinals moved him to the edge, and since then, he has been one of the NFL’s best sack artists. Reddick’s 50.5 sacks rank fourth-best in the league since 2020:

1. T.J. Watt (62.0)
2. Myles Garrett (58.0)
3. Trey Hendrickson (53.0)
4. Haason Reddick (50.5)
5. Nick Bosa (44.5)
6. Chris Jones (42.5)
7. Maxx Crosby (42.0)
8. Micah Parsons (40.5)
9. Khalil Mack (40.0)
10. Leonard Floyd (39.5)

Reddick has been consistent, too. Myles Garrett joins him as the only two players with at least 10 sacks in each of the past four seasons.

It’s comforting for the Jets that Reddick pulled this off on three different teams. Effortlessly translating his production from scheme to scheme inspires faith that he does not need to benefit from a particular type of situation to be productive. He’s proven himself to be a flat-out playmaker who will thrive no matter where he goes.

The key to Reddick’s sack production is his excellence at converting his pressures into sacks. Over the last four seasons, 25.1% of his total pressures were sacks. Comparatively, the 2023 league average for edge rushers was 16.6%. Reddick is outstanding at finishing the play after he gets home.

Finishing is an area where Reddick will likely provide a sizable upgrade over Huff. While Huff is a pressure machine, he is not nearly as excellent of a finisher as Reddick.

For his career, Huff has converted just 14.9% of his total pressures into sacks, a below-average rate for his position. While Huff had a career-high 10 sacks in 2023, this was actually a somewhat underwhelming mark when considering he had a whopping 67 total pressures, giving him a 14.9% conversion rate that is identical to his career average. Compare this to Reddick, who had an equal total of 67 pressures but was in on 13 total sacks (19.4%). In 2022, Reddick had 68 pressures and was in on 18 sacks (26.5%).

Huff was in an ideal situation for finishing sacks, as he had numerous quality pass rushers around him to push the QB in his direction and an elite secondary to buy him time. Finishing just isn’t a strength in his game. For Reddick, though, it’s his bread-and-butter. The Jets can expect an uptick in sacks with Reddick in the fold.

The Jets should also see an increase in takeaways. Huff has only forced one fumble in his career. Reddick leads the league with 13 forced fumbles since 2020 (although he had none in 2023).

When it comes to splashy highlight plays and raw box-score production, Reddick easily clears Huff.

Huff’s advantages lie beneath the surface.

Reddick’s pressure production is solid, but not close to Huff

It was never about sacks or splashy plays with Huff. The former UDFA earned the reputation (and contract) that he did because of his incredible numbers in the pressure department. When it came to his pure consistency at winning reps and creating pressure, he was arguably the best edge rusher in the NFL.

Based on PFF’s tracking, Huff had the second-highest pressure rate among qualified edge rushers in 2023 at 20.06%, narrowly trailing Micah Parsons’ 20.08%. There was a huge gap between Huff and the third-ranked player, Josh Allen, who was all the way down at 17.5%. The league average for edge rushers was 11.6%.

Reddick’s pressure rate was only 12.0%, barely above the positional average and ranking 41st out of 86 qualifiers. While Reddick and Huff both finished the season with 67 total pressures (tying them for 15th at the position), Reddick needed 557 pass-rush snaps to get there (6th-most) while Huff only needed 334 (56th).

In 2022, Huff played a very small role in which he only logged 173 pass-rush snaps (107th among EDGE), but he managed to collect 36 pressures, giving him a 20.8% pressure rate that led edge rushers with at least 150 pass-rush snaps. Overall, over the past two seasons, Huff had 103 pressures on 507 pass-rush snaps, giving him a 20.3% pressure rate that topped all edge rushers over this span.

Reddick was much better at creating pressure in 2022 than he was in 2023. With 68 pressures on 448 pass-rush snaps, he earned a 15.2% pressure rate, ranking seventh-best out of 88 qualifiers. However, he was down at 10.0% in 2021, although in 2020, he was back up at 13.6%. Reddick has been inconsistent in this area from year to year, but overall, his pressure rate is 12.7% since his 2020 breakout, which is a solid, above-average number – just nowhere close to Huff’s level.

The main question with Huff is whether his pressure rate can be maintained over a larger snap count. Huff benefited from a low-volume role in New York that 1) kept him fresh and 2) allowed him to focus on pass rushing without having to worry about stopping the run. In the larger role that he will undoubtedly play to justify his contract, Huff will have to prove he can be just as effective with a heavier workload that isn’t as favorable for pass rushing.

In 2023, there were signs that Huff’s production would likely decline in a larger role. The Jets significantly boosted his playing time compared to the previous year, when he quite literally was only playing in obvious passing situations. This meant Huff began to see the field in some situations where the run was a legitimate threat. And in games where Huff had to play a significant number of snaps against the run, his pass rush production dwindled.

There were six games in 2023 where Huff played more than 10 snaps against the run. Comparatively, he only played 16 snaps against the run all year in 2022 (no more than 4 in one game). In those six games where Huff played 10+ snaps against the run, he only had 13 pressures on 114 pass-rush snaps (11.4% pressure rate).

In nine games where Huff played no more than seven snaps against the run, Huff had 50 pressures on 182 pass-rush snaps, an insane pressure rate of 27.4%.

There was a correlation coefficient (r=) of -0.437 between Huff’s total number of run defense snaps and his pressure rate, which is fairly strong. We saw clear evidence that Huff’s otherworldly efficiency is probably restricted to a smaller role.

This is where Reddick offers greater reliability compared to Huff. Yes, his pressure rates haven’t been nearly as dominant as Huff’s, but he’s been doing it on a large sample of snaps, while with Huff, he hasn’t shown that he can be effective while playing 500 or even 400 pass-rush snaps in a season, which he would ideally have to do to justify making $17 million per year.

With Reddick, you know you’re getting a guy who can provide solid pressure production and elite sack production while handling as many snaps as you need him to play. Reddick has played more than 70% of his team’s defensive snaps in each of the past four seasons. He’s a true every-down edge defender who can be trusted to keep doing what he’s been doing in whatever role the Jets ask him to play.

Huff’s pressure rates have been so remarkably high that he will probably remain an elite pressure producer even if he sees a fairly steep decline in a larger role. Meanwhile, Reddick generally isn’t close to elite in pressure metrics. So, it seems likely the Jets will experience a downgrade in pressure consistency from Huff to Reddick. That will be the biggest cost of this swap for New York. Whereas Reddick will probably generate more splash plays as a pass rusher, Huff is more consistent at winning his reps on a snap-to-snap basis.

Still, the downgrade in this area probably isn’t as large as it would seem at first glance when considering the roles of both players. Not to mention, in New York, Reddick has a chance to close the pressure gap between him and Huff even further. That brings us to our next topic.

Reddick can benefit from fewer snaps in the Jets’ defense

Reddick has been a heavy-workload edge defender at his last three stops. He’s played at least 800 defensive snaps and had a snap percentage of at least 74% in four consecutive seasons.

The Jets don’t utilize defensive linemen in that way. Robert Saleh and Jeff Ulbrich preach a rotation-heavy philosophy that keeps everyone fresh and allows them to stay energized for four quarters.

In this Jets defense, Reddick is likely going to play the lowest snap count he’s ever played as an edge defender. Jermaine Johnson led the Jets’ edge defenders in snap percentage at 66% in 2023. Reddick won’t be going past that. It’s no coincidence that the benchmark condition of the Reddick trade (which would upgrade the cost from a 2026 third-round pick to a 2026 second-round pick) was placed at 67.5% of the snaps in 2024 (in addition to 10+ sacks), which is just a shade beyond Johnson’s unit-leading mark in 2023.

Johnson’s 66% mark is the absolute maximum that Reddick could hit if the Jets see him as their top edge defender, but he will probably fall well short of that. Johnson is a strong two-way defender who demands a high snap count because of his ability to stop the run at an elite level on top of his pass rushing impact. Reddick is not on the same level against the run.

Therefore, Johnson will likely maintain his role and out-snap Reddick. Add in all of the other mouths to feed (John Franklin-Myers, Will McDonald), and you’re probably looking at a snap percentage in the 50s for Reddick.

And that should work wonders for his efficiency. While Huff’s pressure rate is due to come down as his workload increases, Reddick’s pressure rate is due to increase as he prepares to experience a significant decrease in snaps. He’ll be fresher than he’s ever been, allowing him to provide more juice on each snap.

A smaller snap count is not the only way Reddick can benefit from the Jets’ scheme. Reddick will also get to move out of a role that has somewhat held him back.

Minimizing Reddick’s coverage responsibilities will boost his pass rushing (although that ability is something the Jets can occasionally use)

Reddick started his career playing mostly inside linebacker in Arizona. The role was not an ideal fit for him and he has been substantially better as an edge defender, but his past experience as an ILB gives him a versatile skill set that his past three teams have utilized.

Since he moved to the edge in 2020, Reddick has logged 328 coverage snaps, an average of 5.0 per game. This number has decreased each year, but even in 2023, Reddick still played 42 coverage snaps, more than two per game. His ability to drop into coverage has allowed his teams to craft complex pressure schemes in which Reddick drops back while a blitzer replaces him in the rush.

This ability is a nice little bonus for the Jets’ defense. While the Jets’ defensive scheme is relatively straightforward – they rarely blitz, and when they do, they almost never drop their defensive linemen – they did showcase some increased creativity in 2023, especially with Jermaine Johnson, who they liked to move around the defensive line. Most notably, Johnson saw a decent number of opportunities to stand up in the A gaps (between the center and guard).

This is something the Jets could also do with Reddick, who is an experienced stand-up linebacker. This gives them more options in how they can align their defensive linemen, making them more versatile and unpredictable. And now that they have an edge defender with coverage capability – something the Jets have not had under Saleh, since they typically don’t target those types of players – perhaps they consider adding more variety to their blitz playbook.

However, I am skeptical of whether Reddick’s coverage ability is something the Jets will use very often. It will be a neat wrinkle to utilize on occasion, but overall, my guess is that the Jets believe there is more value to be gained from mostly eliminating Reddick’s coverage responsibilities. After four years of having to constantly think about executing his role in pressure packages, Reddick could finally get a chance to focus solely on pinning his ears back and rushing, which is what he does best.

To emphasize exactly how averse the Jets are to dropping their defensive linemen, all of the Jets’ defensive linemen (both edge and interior players) combined for 40 coverage snaps in 2023. Reddick had 42 coverage snaps on his own. Huff led the Jets with 13 coverage snaps, less than one-third of Reddick’s total, and the 88th-ranked total among defensive linemen.

The Jets simply don’t like to drop defensive linemen, and I’d be surprised if that changed drastically because of Reddick. A slight uptick is likely – maybe he drops back around 20 times – but it would be a massive departure from the Jets’ typical preferences if they dropped Reddick as often as his previous teams did.

Ultimately, Reddick transitioning to the Jets’ defensive philosophy offers much more potential value than the Jets shifting their defensive philosophy due to Reddick. This is largely because dropping Reddick into coverage, while creative, doesn’t offer great results if you do it too often. He couldn’t last at ILB because he isn’t good in coverage, and that hasn’t changed now that he’s dropping back off the edge. Opponents have continued carving Reddick up in coverage since he moved to the edge.

According to NFL Next Gen Stats, Reddick has been targeted as the nearest defender on 22.9% of his coverage snaps since 2020. That means teams throw his way nearly one-quarter of the time when he drops into coverage, which is an extremely high rate for one defender on the field out of 11. It shows that teams are eagerly attacking him when he drops back.

On top of that, their results when targeting him have been excellent: 50-of-64 for 474 yards, one touchdown, and no interceptions with 9.8 total Expected Points Added (0.15 EPA per target). That’s the 14th-most total EPA allowed among edge defenders over this span, while his 0.15 EPA per target ranks 12th-worst among the 50 edge defenders to face at least 30 targets.

While it’s important to recognize that Reddick’s ability to drop into coverage likely helped create some sacks via the blitz, his weakness in coverage is a steep price to pay for a few extra blitz sacks when you could just let him rush the passer on his own and rack up sacks as well as anyone. A snap with Reddick rushing the quarterback offers a lot more value than a snap with Reddick dropping into coverage.

In New York, Reddick should see more straight-up pass rushing opportunities and fewer coverage snaps, boosting his overall effectiveness.

Decent run defense is an upgrade

Another area where Reddick differs greatly from Huff is his run defense. Whereas New York viewed Huff as nearly unplayable against the run, Reddick offers passable run defense as a complement to his pass rushing.

In each of the past four seasons, Reddick ranked no lower than 26th among edge defenders in run defense snaps. He’s averaged 18.5 run defense snaps per game over this span – in comparison, Huff averaged 7.9 in 2023, with a maximum of 14 that was lower than Reddick’s average per game.

Reddick’s heavy workload in the run game shows that his coaches have trusted him in that phase. Since his heavy run-game usage was sustained across three different teams, it’s fair to suggest that he is viewed as a trusty run defender around the league.

Reddick isn’t considered “great” against the run, but most metrics point to him as being passable in this phase. His composite PFF run defense grade over the past four seasons is 62.9, which, for perspective, would have ranked 47th out of 88 qualified edge defenders (min. 150 run defense snaps) in 2023. So, he can be considered an average run defender.

Compared to Huff, that’s a sizable upgrade. Huff had a 48.0 run defense grade this year, which would have placed 82nd if he qualified (7th percentile).

If you viewed this as a one-for-one comparison, you were looking at it wrong

Huff and Reddick will be understandably compared throughout the 2024 season, but this isn’t the apples-to-apples comparison that many are treating it as.

On the field, these are two different players who are getting paid to do much different things.

Huff is a pure pass rusher who can create pressure more consistently than anyone. He is a 6-foot-3, 255-pound, hand-in-the-dirt defensive end with a nasty combination of explosiveness, power, bendiness, and finesse. His finishing isn’t great, but few players are better at ruining plays on a snap-to-snap basis, regardless of whether he gets the sack. His run defense remains a weakness until proven otherwise, and he must prove he can remain effective in a larger role.

Reddick is a 6-foot-1, 240-pound athletic freak (9.07 RAS, 4.52 forty) with a background as an off-ball linebacker. As fast and agile of an edge rusher as you’ll see, Reddick wins less consistently than Huff, but he is elite at producing sacks and fumbles when he gets home. He also provides decent run defense and offers more versatility in terms of where he can align and the different roles he can play.

Off the field, each player is an ideal fit for their team’s situation.

Philadelphia’s trade of Reddick indicates they were not planning to re-sign him long-term anyway, so signing the younger Huff to a three-year deal solved their long-term EDGE hole.

Meanwhile, in New York, the Jets already have two long-term EDGE solutions with two recent first-round picks in Jermaine Johnson and Will McDonald. Re-signing Huff would have overloaded the unit in the long term. Philadelphia was in greater need of long-term help at the position, so they were the team that showed more interest in him on the open market.

However, the Jets needed to replicate Huff’s impact for the short term to maximize their win-now Super Bowl window, and by getting Reddick on a one-year, $15 million deal without losing a draft pick until 2026, they executed that perfectly. They didn’t muddy the long-term cap and didn’t lose an asset that will hurt their Super Bowl odds in 2024 or 2025.

The conversation changes if the Jets sign Reddick to an extension, which some reports indicate they are seeking to do. If that occurs, the whole concept of prioritizing a short-term option flies out the window, and the Jets will have essentially traded Huff and a future third-round pick for Reddick. Whether or not that proves worthwhile will depend on how both players perform (and what Reddick’s contract looks like compared to Huff’s).

Still, even if the Jets do sign Reddick to an extension, there is a good chance the Jets will be happy about their decision in the end. Losing the future third-round pick will hurt, but Reddick is a more reliable bet on a lucrative long-term deal than Huff. He’s been productive at an elite level for four consecutive years while handling a large snap count each year. The Jets clearly didn’t trust that Huff could be productive enough overall (in both phases) to justify the contract he ended up getting.

The 3.5-year age difference favors Huff, which is one of the concerns of this trade-off if Reddick gets extended. Huff is still trending up while Reddick will turn 30 this year. He still has an active four-year streak of double-digit sack seasons (although his 2022 season was clearly better than his 2023 campaign), so his outlook for 2024 seems just fine, but if the Jets sign Reddick through his age-32 or age-33 season, that could come back to bite them.

However, as we discussed earlier, Reddick projects to improve in the Jets’ scheme. With fewer snaps overall, fewer coverage reps, and more straight-up pass rushing opportunities, Reddick’s efficiency should trend upward in New York. These effects should help counteract his age and help him thrive into his thirties.

What does this mean for Will McDonald?

For now, Will McDonald’s long-term outlook remains unchanged. He still has a chance to emerge as one of New York’s core defensive linemen by 2025 or 2026. Remember, Reddick didn’t break out until his fourth season. Perhaps McDonald has a similar development curve.

Having said that, if Reddick is signed to an extension, it shines an interesting light on McDonald. Even right now, without a Reddick extension, the Jets’ entire approach to the EDGE unit this offseason has brought up uncertainty regarding how they feel about McDonald.

After drafting McDonald in the first round last year, the Jets gave themselves an inexpensive in-house replacement for Huff if he walked, allowing them to easily replace Huff. They could have filled out the EDGE rotation with a cheap player on the back end. Overall, in comparison to the route the Jets eventually chose, this would net them cap and draft-pick savings that could be used on other positions.

Instead, the Jets’ actions over the past few weeks have indicated they do not view McDonald as a reliable bet to fill in for Huff. They pursued Shaquil Barrett and Jadeveon Clowney before trading for Reddick. All three are accomplished veteran players who would have demanded a high snap count while leaving McDonald buried.

It seems clear that the Jets are not fully sold on McDonald having a breakout 2024 season. Otherwise, they would not have pursued these players. With that being said, I do not think their pursuit of these players indicates they are completely out on McDonald. They just don’t see him as a surefire guarantee to replicate Huff in 2024, and for a win-now team, gambling on that would be risky.

The Jets’ defense relies heavily on its four-man rush to be successful. If the Jets gambled on McDonald to replicate their best pass rusher and he proved to be a significant downgrade, the entire defense would suffer greatly. That elite defense is the crux of why the Jets seem so close to competing for a championship. So, if you remove Huff and replace him with a mediocre player, that defense suddenly isn’t the championship-caliber rock it was over the past two years, crushing the entire franchise’s Super Bowl hopes.

Thus, pushing all the chips in and loading up the defensive line made sense for the Jets in their current predicament. It doesn’t mean they don’t think McDonald can still become a star a few years down the line or even that he cannot help in some capacity this season. It just means they didn’t want to take any chances. Seeing their elite defense fall apart because they overestimated their own draft pick and ignored adding security would be a travesty.

Reddick could be a fantastic mentor for McDonald. There are many similarities between the two. Reddick came in as an older prospect, didn’t break out until later in his career, and is a speedy, undersized edge rusher. Having Reddick around could only help McDonald’s development as a player.

An admirable all-in move by Joe Douglas

Overall, I think the Reddick trade was a smart move by Joe Douglas and company. After losing Huff – whether you think the Jets botched the situation or not – the Jets had to figure out how to replicate the impact they’d lost. Playing it safe and betting on McDonald would have been the easy play, and who knows? Maybe it would have worked.

But instead of taking the easy, economical route, Douglas continued affirming the all-in mentality he had established over the past few weeks. The same mentality that led him to Tyron Smith and Mike Williams is what led him to Haason Reddick.

This team is all-in on a short-term Super Bowl window with Aaron Rodgers. The best way to make the most of it is to raise the ceiling as high as possible, and this Reddick move fits directly into that mindset.

Going into the offseason, losing Huff was viewed as a near-certainty, and while that stung for Jets fans, it was viewed as a necessary evil to net the cap savings that would be used to upgrade the offense. Generally speaking, most people agreed that New York would accept a downgrade on defense in exchange for a massive overhaul of the offensive supporting cast around Rodgers. This was rightfully viewed as a worthwhile trade-off.

But now that the Jets have added Reddick, the loss of Huff has been washed out, meaning the defense is poised to be just as good as it was last year (if not better). Yet, acquiring Reddick did not stop the Jets from substantially improving the offense.

So, in the end, the Jets are going into the draft with an enormously improved offense and a net-zero defense, compared to the pre-free agency expectations of an enormously improved offense and a slight net-negative defense.

That’s a major win. And all it took was a third-round pick that won’t make his NFL debut for another two years.

The Jets’ 2023 offseason and ensuing regular season catastrophe gave off a concerning aura of complacency within the Jets’ organization. I felt like the team had already begun planning its Super Bowl parade after landing Aaron Rodgers. From the lack of major offseason additions, to the Rodgers worshipping on Hard Knocks, to the excuse-making in the regular season, it seemed as if the Jets had tied themselves to Rodgers’ back and truly believed he could drag the entire organization to a Super Bowl on his own.

Throughout this past month, the Jets have completely squashed my concerns about their apparent complacency. This regime has shown a level of aggressiveness I didn’t know it had. Clearly learning from their mistakes in 2023, the Jets are sparing no expense in their mission to maximize the Aaron Rodgers window.

Signing Tyron Smith was the first indicator that something had changed in the team’s mindset. Then came Mike Williams.

And now with Haason Reddick to top it all off? There’s no debating it now.

The New York Jets are all in.

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