NY Jets’ expensive free agency plan: Where can they splurge?

The New York Jets can choose to pursue a few top free agents

Previously, we went through a cheap free agency plan for the New York Jets. The idea was to fill the Jets’ needs while dealing with their tight cap situation. Now, let’s go the opposite route: here’s how the Jets can fill their needs if they’re looking to sign a few premier free agents.

Note that I’m going to try to propose a still-realistic route. There’s no point in creating a wishlist that can never happen. Still, this scenario will go beyond just Calvin Ridley.

Quarterback: Jacoby Brissett, WAS

In our cheap free agency plan, we chose a backup quarterback who will likely be on the more affordable side in Ryan Tannehill. This time, we go with the more expensive option.

Jacoby Brissett could easily be a starter on many teams in the NFL and showed it during the 2022 season. He entered the game against the Jets in 2023 and led Washington to a big comeback that fell just short. Still, if Brissett made $8 million coming off that 2022 season, he’s unlikely to make more now.

Cost: 1 year, $8 million

Running back: Patrick Taylor, GB

If I’m going to splurge in other spots, backup running back is going to be a save point. Taylor had a decent pass-blocking grade (61.1), generated positive rush yards over expected per carry (0.2), and showed an ability to break tackles (0.281 per carry). He’s a Zonovan Knight-style player at 6-foot-2, 217 pounds, and a slow 40 time (4.57 seconds) but can get north and south.

Cost: 1 year, $1.5 million

Wide receiver: Mike Evans, TB

This is the big catch. Davante Adams would actually cost less in 2024, but because it would take picks to acquire him, we’re going with the Jets’ No. 1 free-agent receiver target. Evans would slot in opposite Garrett Wilson and form one of the best one-two punches in the NFL. His durability, consistency, and home-run ability make him a must-target. He’s going to come expensive, have many suitors, and prefer Tampa over anywhere else, but this is who the Jets should be pursuing.

Cost: 3 years, $71.4 million ($23.8 million APY)

Wide receiver: Josh Reynolds, DET

Reynolds has a nose for gaining first downs. His first down rate was 80% in 2023 with an 11.5 average depth of target. He has been above 65% in all but one season where he had at least 20 catches. He has inside-outside versatility, playing about 30-35% of his snaps in the slot through most of his career. Reynolds posted WR2-type numbers in three of Detroit’s first four games of 2023 when Jameson Williams was out. He would be a useful addition to the Jets’ lineup.

Cost: 2 years, $10.5 million ($5.25 million APY)

Left tackle: Tyron Smith, DAL

Many Jets fans would prefer Mike Onwenu to Tyron Smith, but I’m going with Smith. For one thing, Onwenu played in the Patriots’ gap-heavy scheme. For another, he played only right tackle and was a guard before 2023. Onwenu will command a longer-term deal and probably a higher APY.

Smith carries a tremendous injury risk, but he usually plays about 11-13 games per year and gets healthy around playoff time. He’s also been a stud left tackle for nearly a decade at this point, and he’s showing no signs of slowing down. In this scenario, we leave right tackle for the draft.

Cost: 2 years, $26 million ($13 million APY)

Right guard: Kevin Zeitler, BAL

James Hurst might be cheaper, but Zeitler would bring the Jets strong pass-blocking and better run-blocking than Hurst. He’s risky because of his favorable Baltimore environment, but other than his final year for the Giants in 2021, he’s been a stud throughout his career.

Cost: 2 years, $15 million ($7.5 million APY)

Swing tackle: Cam Fleming, DEN

Fleming did not play much for Denver in 2023, but he posted a 4.6% pressure rate for them in 2022. It is somewhat concerning that they sought to replace him, but the Jets could do worse in their swing tackle.

Cost: 1 year, $2.5 million

Interior offensive lineman: Trystan Colon, ARI

Colon is simply the cheapest quality interior offensive line option I could find. He may get a chance to start somewhere, but I think he’s still below the NFL’s radar to a large extent. Joe Blewett liked Colon better than Wes Schweitzer last year, so the Jets should try to bring back the one they let get away. Colon’s guard-center versatility is also helpful.

Cost: 1 year, $1.9 million

Edge defender: Bryce Huff, NYJ

Bringing back Bryce Huff is by far the ideal situation for the Jets. He is one of the premier pass rushers in the NFL.

Cost: 3 years, $50.1 million ($16.7 million APY)

Defensive tackles: Quinton Jefferson, NYJ; Jonathan Harris, DEN

We’ll go with Jefferson and one of the defensive tackles Michael Nania mentioned. The Jets can draft the other in the mid-to-late rounds.

Cost: 1 year each, $5.5 million combined total

Strong safety: Chuck Clark, NYJ

I want Clark back no matter the exercise. He should come cheap following his injury, and he fits exactly what the Jets need in their strong safety.

Cost: 1 year, $2.5 million

Strong safety: Ashtyn Davis, NYJ

Davis fit well into his role in the box and should be brought back.

Cost: 1 year, $1.2 million

Kicker: Greg Zuerlein, NYJ

Zuerlein was one of the best kickers in the league in 2023.

Cost: 1 year, $3 million

Punter: Thomas Morstead, NYJ

Morstead stabilized the Jets’ punting situation in 2023 and seems to love playing in New York.

Cost: 1 year, $1.5 million

Totals

• Players: 1 QB, 1 RB, 2 WR, 2 OT, 2 OG, 1 ED, 2 IDL, 2 S, 1 K, 1 P – 15 total
• 2024 contract cost (based on APY): $93.85 million

I cheated a bit in this scenario by including the draft in my options. But that’s what it’s going to take if the Jets want to splurge on some free agents. Even in this scenario, Joe Douglas will need to extend the Jets’ cap to the absolute limit, deferring money to later years and adding void years across the board. This plan could cripple the Jets’ ability to sign Garrett Wilson, Sauce Gardner, and Jermaine Johnson to second contracts.

Still, if the Jets want to go for it in 2024, they likely need to embrace some version of this scenario. Maybe they replace Evans with Ridley and save $7 million per season. Maybe James Hurst will be a bit cheaper than Zeitler. But signing a top-end No. 2 receiver and re-signing Huff are priorities for a team trying to maximize a very narrow (and perhaps nonexistent) Super Bowl window. Signing one top-end tackle also must be a priority.

Perhaps this scenario could also include leaving Alijah Vera-Tucker at right tackle and drafting a left tackle, in which case the Jets would need two starting guards (assuming they release Laken Tomlinson) rather than a guard and a tackle. They could then sign Hurst and Zeitler or even go for Robert Hunt, who is projected to make $11.8 million per year rather than the $13 million I gave Smith in this exercise.

Even in a splurging scenario, the Jets could pay up for a No. 2 receiver and one tackle. In this case, Andrew Van Ginkel lowers the edge defender price by nearly $9 million, Ryan Tannehill brings down backup quarterback by nearly $3 million, and Hurst saves $1.5 million at guard. Still, that would leave the Jets at $80 million spent in one offseason, necessitating many cap maneuvers before even signing draft picks.

One way or another, this is going to be a tough budgeting offseason for the Jets.

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