Is NY Jets’ Jermaine Johnson the top EDGE from 2022 draft class?

Looking back at the New York Jets’ third selection in the 2022 NFL Draft

Did the New York Jets make the best choice?

Considering the team’s cursed history, the answer to that question is more often than not “no.” In this case, though, the question refers to selecting Jermaine Johnson at No. 26 in the 2022 draft.

During that season’s draft wars among Jets fans, mock drafts were filled with edge rusher selections at both No. 4 and No. 10. Johnson’s name appeared in either spot for many prognosticators. His slide to No. 26 surprised many.

No one will argue that the Jets made the right choices with Sauce Gardner at No. 4 and Garrett Wilson at No. 10. Both are franchise cornerstone players, and Gardner may be the best sophomore cornerback in NFL history.

Still, edge rusher has been a position of dire need for the Jets since John Abraham wore the green and white. As good as Gardner and Wilson have been, it’s worthwhile to look at the tradeoff the Jets made in forgoing some of the other edge rushers available at No. 4, No. 10, and No. 26. For the sake of a full comparison, we’ll also look at the edge rushers selected before the Jets were on the clock.

Specifically, we’ll look at Johnson’s 2023 season compared to the following players:

• Travon Walker (No. 1 overall, Jacksonville)
• Aidan Hutchinson (No. 2, Detroit)
• Kayvon Thibodeaux (No. 5, New York Giants)
• George Karlaftis (No. 30, Kansas City)
• Boye Mafe (No. 40, Seattle)

I chose to include Mafe because he was one of the edge rushers ranked after Johnson on the Consensus Big Board. Two others were Karlaftis and David Ojabo. Ojabo was coming off a torn Achilles at his pro day and would start his rookie season on injured reserve. I did not include him because he was not a realistic pick for the Jets, who needed an edge rusher immediately. I also chose to exclude Arnold Ebiketie (No. 38, Atlanta) because he played a part-time role this season.

All rankings are among 72 edge rushers with a minimum of 275 pass rush snaps and/or 176 run defense snaps.

Snap counts

In 2023, all but one of the pass rushers listed played a starter’s level of snaps.

1. Hutchinson (986)
2. Thibodeaux (981)
3. Walker (869)
4. Mafe (808)
5. Karlaftis (755)
6. Johnson (748)

That Johnson is sixth on this list is unsurprising given the Jets’ defensive line rotation. He played the highest rate of defensive snaps among the Jets’ edge rushers. The team simply does not play their defensive linemen on 70% or more of the snaps. Still, Johnson became a starter, just as the others did.

While snap count does not necessarily indicate much about a player’s performance, it’s still worth looking at.

Pass rushing stats

For pass rush evaluation, I looked at pressure rate, sack rate, pass rush win rate, true pass set pressure rate, true pass set sack rate, and true pass set pass rush win rate.

Hutchinson is the best pure pass rusher, posting a 16.2% pressure rate and 21.3% pass rush win rate. He ranks in the top 10 among all qualified edge rushers in pressure rate, true pass set pressure rate, pass rush win rate, and true pass set pass rush win rate.

Meanwhile, Thibodeaux leads in all the sack rate statistics but is the lowest in all other pass rush stats. His 2.5% sack rate and 4.66% true pass set sack rate are the top or tied for the top in the class. On the other hand, his 8.5% pressure rate, 14% true pass set pressure rate, 6.4% pass rush win rate, and 10.6% true pass set pass rush win rate are by far the worst in the class.

Johnson is toward the lower middle in most of the statistics. His 12.6% pressure rate ranks third in the class, and his 2.02% sack rate (5th), 17.4% true pass set pressure rate (3rd), 3.21% true pass set sack rate (5th), 12.6%, 2.03%, 12.4% pass rush win rate (4th), and 16.4% true pass set pass rush win rate (4th) were all in that range.

Statistically, it’s fair to say that Johnson was the fourth-best pass rusher from the class over the course of the whole season. However, excluding the first three games in which he struggled mightily, Johnson’s statistics look far better. He rises to second in pressure rate, third in sack rate, second in true pass set pressure rate, third in true pass set sack rate, second in pass rush win rate, and third in true pass set pass rush win rate.

The switch turned on for Johnson starting in Week 4.

Run defense

There are not too many statistics available to evaluate run defense. For this exercise, I used run stop rate (the rate of run defense tackles that led to no gain or a loss for the offense), PFF run defense grade, and run game missed tackle rate.

Johnson had the best run stop rate (7%) and run defense grade (71.0) among the class and ranked second in missed tackle rate against the run (4.5%). Karlaftis ranked first in that category. Thibodeaux was the worst in run stop rate, while Walker had the worst run defense grade and Hutchinson had the worst missed tackle rate.

Overall, it appears that Johnson is by far the best run defender in the class.

Draft slot

Expectations are different for players based on their draft slot. Walker, Hutchinson, and Thibodeaux were top-five picks, while Johnson and Karlaftis went toward the end of the first round and Mafe lasted until the second. However, the Jets also traded up for Johnson.

Thibodeaux is the most disappointing player in the class relative to draft position. Even though his sack rates are the best in the class, his putrid pass rush efficiency metrics and run defense make him the worst value. Walker is likely the second-ranked disappointment, as he has merely been an average pass rusher while playing subpar run defense. Hutchinson, Johnson, Karlaftis, and Mafe have provided the most value relative to their draft positions.

Overall rankings

Averaging out the rankings among the class in the categories listed above yields the following results if including Johnson’s statistics from Week 4 on.

1. Johnson 2.22
2. Hutchinson 2.89
3. Karlaftis 3.22
4. Mafe 3.56
5. Thibodeaux 4.44
6. Walker 4.56

Compared to his draft class, Johnson has the best average ranking including all of those categories. While this is highly unscientific, and perhaps some categories should be weighted more than others, it’s fair to say that Johnson was at least the second- or third-best edge defender in the class from Week 4 onward.

For those who want to look at just pass rush impact for an edge rusher, consider why Bryce Huff played just 42% of the Jets’ snaps despite his poor pass rush statistics. Many of the other edge rushers in this class played poor run defense in 2023, making them one-dimensional players. Those who watched the Jets’ defense this season understand how their poor run defense statistics were the biggest struggle they had and prevented them from dominance.

Even in average ranking compared to other edge defenders, Johnson comes out No. 1 using his numbers from Weeks 4-18.

1. Johnson (20.7)
2. Hutchinson (28.9)
3. Karlaftis (30.4)
4. Mafe (33.9)
5. Walker (43.1)
6. Thibodeaux (49.0).

While it may not be entirely fair to use an arbitrary threshold for Johnson and not the other players, Johnson’s ascension point was so clear and obvious that it’s worth discounting his first three games to get a true picture of his season. Perhaps I would find such a delineation for the other players, too, if I looked hard enough. Still, it is unlikely to be as stark and sustained until the end of the season.

Hutchinson is undoubtedly the best pure pass rusher in this class right now. However, of the players the Jets had the option to take, Johnson’s play from Weeks 4-18 makes him the best overall player. Joe Douglas can add another feather to his cap in the 2022 draft class that may save his Jets’ tenure from ignominy.

Follow Rivka Boord on Twitter @rivka_boord

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