What Joe Douglas, NY Jets can learn from their rare free agent hits

The New York Jets need to pull from what’s worked in the past

Joe Douglas has not done a good job in free agency during his tenure as the New York Jets’ general manager.

Over a three-year span from 2020-22, the Jets ranked third in the NFL with $222.4 million in guaranteed money spent on free agents (per Spotrac) and they barely have anything to show for that spending spree as they enter 2024. While the Jets cut down on spending in 2023, their free-agent class bombed once again, even relative to the lower expectations associated with the cheaper costs.

We recently broke down some of the biggest free-agent whiffs in Douglas’ tenure and what the team can learn from those mistakes to avoid making similar errors in the future. Today, we will look at the other side of the coin.

While Douglas has been largely poor in free agency, his batting average is not .000. There have been a handful of free-agent hits in Douglas’ tenure. If Douglas wants to raise his batting average in the future, he must learn from those hits. What made those signings work? How can that success be replicated in 2024?

Let’s break down the thought processes that went into two of Douglas’ best free-agent signings, pinpointing some of the green flags that foretold the player’s future success.

Seattle Seahawks CB D.J. Reed

• 2022
• 3 years, $33 million ($10.5 million guaranteed)

D.J. Reed wasn’t a household name entering the 2022 free agency period. He was a 5-foot-9 former fifth-round pick from Kansas State with only 24 career starts under his belt in four seasons. His career box-score totals of four interceptions and 19 passes defended (including 2 INT and 10 PD in 2021) did not really jump off the page.

However, Reed’s advanced metrics were spectacular. A peek beneath the hood revealed who Reed truly was as a player.

In his 2021 campaign with the Seahawks, Reed played 606 coverage snaps and allowed 35 catches on 68 targets for 383 yards, two touchdowns, and two interceptions. Among 96 qualified cornerbacks, Reed allowed the sixth-fewest yards per cover snap (0.63), seventh-lowest passer rating (66.0), and 12th-fewest yards per target (5.6).

Reed also allowed the fourth-lowest completion percentage over expected.

Opposing passers completed -11.9% of their attempts over expected when targeting D.J. Reed last season (4th in NFL).

Reed joins a Jets pass defense that allowed +3.2% of passes to be completed over expectation in 2021 (32nd in NFL). https://t.co/U7WL3nqbXk pic.twitter.com/xdH74KfLCu

— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) March 15, 2022

It was clear that Reed was a fantastic player if you judged him on his advanced metrics instead of going off his box-score stats or background.

But when you are evaluating a free agent, there are always further questions to be answered beyond just the player’s production in his most recent season. Was it a fluke? Is the production transferable to your team’s scheme and situation?

Reed’s resume provided comforting answers to those questions for the Jets.

In Reed’s 2021 breakout season, it wasn’t until he moved to right cornerback that he began to shine his brightest. He started at left cornerback in the first three games, allowing two touchdowns, 0.74 yards per cover snap, and 6.3 yards per target. Seattle moved Reed to right cornerback in Week 4, and he exploded from there. Starting on the right side for his next 11 games, Reed allowed no touchdowns, 0.60 yards per cover snap, and 5.4 yards per target.

Here’s why this matters: It continued a multi-year trend of Reed thriving on the right side.

Reed’s pre-2021 production didn’t look amazing if you took the whole picture. Over his first three seasons, he allowed a 108.6 passer rating, 7.4 yards per target, and 0.91 yards per cover snap (the latter two numbers are solid, but his 78% allowed completion rate and 4-to-2 TD/INT ratio pumped up the passer rating to a high number). But he was great when playing right cornerback.

Before 2021, Reed had played right cornerback in five games (each of those coming in late 2020 with the Seahawks). He looked just as stellar in those games as he did when he played right cornerback full-time for the majority of 2021. In his five games as a right cornerback before 2021, Reed allowed no touchdowns (on 211 coverage snaps), 3.3 yards per target, and 0.44 yards per cover snap.

Overall, Reed had played 16 career games at right cornerback going into the 2022 free agency period – essentially a full season. In those games, he played 681 coverage snaps and allowed 38-of-80 passing (47.5%) for 364 yards (4.6 yards per target / 0.53 per cover snap), zero touchdowns, and three interceptions. That’s a passer rating of 45.0.

With this sample size under his belt, Reed offered a strong likelihood of maintaining his success in the future as long as his new team placed him at right cornerback. The Jets did just that – made possible by the selection of Sauce Gardner to play left cornerback.

Reed also offered scheme compatibility coming from the Pete Carroll-led Seahawks defense. Robert Saleh and Jeff Ulbrich draw heavily from Carroll considering they both coached under him in the Legion of Boom days. Like New York, Seattle’s defense was zone-heavy and kept its corners tethered to one side, so Reed was already prepared for the responsibilities he would assume with the Jets.

There is so much the Jets can learn from the successful signing of Reed. Perhaps the most important takeaway is the importance of using advanced metrics to evaluate free agents.

Reed did not look like an appealing target if you evaluated him based on anything besides his advanced metrics. On top of his small frame, Day 3 draft pedigree, and middling box-score stats, it could also be noted that Reed was the primary starting cornerback on a Seahawks team that ranked 31st in passing yards allowed. That certainly doesn’t sound like a strong resume-builder on paper. With all of these factors in mind, it would have been very easy to overlook Reed if you did not analyze his advanced metrics.

Another important takeaway is the value of ensuring the free agent projects well to your environment. Reed always played his best football at right cornerback and the Jets made sure he could play that position in their defense. In addition, Reed came from a similar scheme that would allow for a smooth transition to New York.

Finally, I would add the importance of multi-year success. While his sample size at right cornerback was still only 16 games overall, Reed did showcase high-level play at right cornerback in multiple seasons. It’s not as if he randomly started playing better in 2021 and never showed any signs of being similarly good beforehand.

Minnesota Vikings TE Tyler Conklin

• 2022
• 3 years, $20.25 million ($10 million guaranteed)

It’s interesting to compare and contrast Tyler Conklin against fellow tight end C.J. Uzomah, who was signed in the same free agent cycle. The Jets made countless mistakes in their evaluation of Uzomah, which we discussed in the previous breakdown. Those mistakes were not present in the evaluation of Conklin.

One of the primary red flags with Uzomah was that his production breakout in 2021 seemed to be the product of changes to his supporting cast rather than a sign of his own individual improvement. Uzomah was a 29-year-old player who didn’t impress until his seventh season, which magically coincided with the Bengals adding a star quarterback and star No. 1 receiver. When this happens, you have to ask yourself if the player actually did anything to change his value compared to what he used to be.

A closer look at Uzomah made it clear he was not a true difference-maker (at least not to the tune of $8 million per year). He was just a guy who was lucky to be there as a beneficiary of everything else going on in Cincinnati.

This concern didn’t apply to Conklin. 2021 was only his fourth season, and his first as a starter. His snap count had increased each year since his rookie season (14%, 28%, 41%, 81%), suggesting he consistently displayed improvement to his coaches. Then, he fully capitalized on the opportunity to start once it arrived. Conklin ranked ninth among tight ends with 61 receptions and 14th with 593 receiving yards.

Conklin’s career had formed a smooth projection arc – one that suggested his new team would be signing him for the bulk of his prime.

Additionally, Conklin’s breakout seemed to be the product of his own solid play rather than merely a result of beneficial surroundings. While Conklin did have a good quarterback in Kirk Cousins and a star No. 1 receiver in Justin Jefferson, a closer look at Conklin’s individual performance painted the picture of a legitimately solid player who burst onto the scene because of what he was doing independent of his environment.

The main appeal of Conklin’s game was his strong hands. Conklin was credited with only one drop in 2021, giving him a 1.6% drop rate that ranked third-best among 35 tight ends with at least 40 targets. Uzomah was 21st at 7.5%. For their careers, Conklin was at 3.1% and Uzomah was at 8.9%. This is one of those metrics that is mostly up to the individual and isn’t strongly affected by outside factors. It’s better to evaluate free agents on something like this than his box-score stats.

Another impressive aspect of Conklin’s game that seemed transferable was his route running. Conklin displayed precise route-running technique on film. He consistently created reception opportunities by separating from defenders in man-to-man situations. Uzomah was a checkdown hog who didn’t actually create his own opportunities very often.

Plays like this were all over Conklin’s Minnesota film and have translated smoothly to New York. You didn’t see much of this with Uzomah.

Im very early into it. But I really like what im seeing from Conklin. pic.twitter.com/ik61VwVeHV

— Joe Blewett (@Joerb31) March 17, 2022

Nasty route by Conklin (right side of screen) vs Singleton.

Gets vertical off of the snap, closes ground on the LB, uses a rocker step at the top of the route paired with a hard head fake outside getting the LB to bite outside.

Leaving Conklin wide open over the middle. pic.twitter.com/N97qSHTqN5

— Joe Blewett (@Joerb31) October 11, 2023

Good route-running is a skill that will flourish in any offense. Catching a bunch of checkdowns because Ja’Marr Chase and Joe Burrow are backing defenses off is not a skill. The Jets should have known that and avoided Uzomah at the price he demanded.

There were numbers to back up Conklin’s route-running ability. In this breakdown I posted in May 2022, I described how Conklin ranked fifth-best out of 29 qualified tight ends in one metric that evaluates separation and route-running ability.

Uzomah ranked 15th in the same category, which isn’t bad, although his last-ranked ADOT of 4.7 yards calls the validity of that ranking into question. While Conklin was also low on the ADOT leaderboard (sixth-lowest of 29), he averaged a full yard more (5.7) and still significantly outperformed Uzomah in separation metrics. Plus, Conklin’s route tree was more expansive.

Conklin’s versatility as a route runner was yet another appealing aspect of his free-agent profile. He showed he can do a lot of different things in the offense, which is a valuable trait when projecting a free agent to another team.

According to Next Gen Stats, Conklin had at least six receptions on six different route types in 2021: flat (15), hitch (12), cross (10), in (7), screen (7), and out (6). Compare that to Uzomah, who only hit that mark on three different route types: flat (16), hitch (16), and cross (7).

Uzomah caught 65% of his passes on flat and hitch routes. That number was only 44% for Conklin. He did a lot more than just gobble up checkdowns. The film showed it and the numbers backed it up.

Another advantage in Conklin’s favor is the role he played on offense. Conklin was Minnesota’s No. 3 target in 2021, placing third on the team with 87 passes thrown his way. After Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen, he was the next guy up. In Cincinnati, Uzomah was the No. 4 target, and by a fairly wide margin, too. Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins led the way while slot receiver Tyler Boyd ranked third with 94 targets. Uzomah was all the way back at 63 targets.

The target disparity between Conklin and Uzomah highlights the value of leaning toward players who handled larger roles. The harder a player’s job was with his old team, the easier it is to project his future success.

Ultimately, comparing Uzomah and Conklin is a great exercise for learning the do’s and don’ts of free agency.

DO value players with a smooth projection arc who are entering their prime. DO NOT fall for veterans who were never on the radar until they experienced a random production blip.

DO place stock in the difficulty of a player’s role/situation. It is promising when a free agent succeeds in a tough situation (or at least one that isn’t extremely good) and/or in a large role. DO NOT fall for players whose performance spiked in a favorable situation.

DO value players with transferable individual skills such as strong hands, route-running consistency, and route-running versatility. DO NOT value players who largely thrive off production that may have been a product of their surroundings rather than their own play.

DO look at the film when evaluating a free agent. Conklin and Uzomah may not have seemed much different in the fantasy football world, but if you watched each of them play, you could see the transferability of Conklin’s skills and the unimpressive nature of Uzomah’s production.

Main takeaways from evaluating the Jets’ hits and misses in free agency

Of course, all of this analysis is easy with the benefit of hindsight. It’s a breeze to rip into the failures and laud the successes when everything is set in stone. I would be lying if I claimed that I was making every single one of these points at the moment these players were signed. If evaluating free agents were that easy, every signing would work out.

Still, there is a lot to be learned when you travel back in time to the moment a free agent was signed. By doing so, you can see which aspects of their profile turned out to be the most accurate predictors of their future. This information can help the Jets in the present day as they look for the same green and red flags in prospective free agent targets.

The Jets could have been a successful team over the past two years if their cap dollars went into more Reeds and Conklins and fewer Tomlinsons and Uzomahs. It’s imperative for Joe Douglas to learn from both his mistakes and his successes if he wants to right the ship.

If I had to choose one lesson the Jets can take away from their biggest whiffs and hits in free agency, it’s the importance of transferability. You can’t just sign any noteworthy free agent and expect it to work out. The key to any free agent is deducing the likelihood that he can transfer his production to a new team.

Looking back, the main red flag with future failures such as Tomlinson and Uzomah was the legitimacy of their production after they experienced late breakouts in favorable situations. Even at the time they were signed, there were questions about whether their performances with their former teams would be transferable to New York. Tomlinson didn’t break out until year six when Trent Williams slotted in beside him. Uzomah didn’t break out until year seven when Burrow and Chase came to town.

Conversely, Reed and Conklin experienced breakouts that appeared far more legitimate and transferable. They broke out just as they entered their primes, showed steady growth year-over-year, and proved they could provide value independent of their surroundings. Neither player appeared to benefit from a utopian situation that artificially boosted their production. In terms of both film and analytics, Reed and Conklin each looked like true difference-makers whose talent levels either matched or exceeded the contracts they signed.

Look for D.J. Reeds and Tyler Conklins in free agency. Stay away from Laken Tomlinsons and C.J. Uzomahs. This strategy won’t work 100% of the time – there are certainly Reeds and Conklins who have bombed just as there are Tomlinsons and Uzomahs who have worked out – but over the long haul, a team’s free agency success is going to correlate very closely with the overall transferability of the players it chooses to bring in.

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