3 moves NY Jets can make to fix their run defense in 2024

Run defense was a problem for the New York Jets in 2023

As good as the New York Jets’ defense was in 2023, its main Achilles heel was run defense. The Jets allowed the eighth-most rushing yards per game in the NFL (124.0).

While most of the focus will be on the offensive side of the ball, there are a few defensive holes to plug up this offseason. Considering the key weakness, those moves should likely be predicated on run defense. Of course, that neglects the Bryce Huff dilemma, as it would be an automatic concession to pass rush over run defense.

Still, if the Jets do choose to go run defense in the offseason, what moves can they make to solidify that part of their team?

By the numbers

The Jets’ final run game numbers were not as poor as they appeared for most of the season. While they allowed 124 rush yards per game, the eighth-most among all teams, their efficiency was better:

• 14th in run defense DVOA (-10.5%)
• 11th in PFF run defense grade (66.9)
• 11th in yards per carry (4.07)
• 9th in adjusted line yards (3.93) – Estimated yards allowed that are credited to the offensive line
• 7th in stuff rate (20%) – Percentage of runs tackled at or behind the line of scrimmage
• 10th in second-level yards (1.11) – Yards gained from 5-10 yards beyond the line of scrimmage
• 5th in defensive success rate (62.9%) – Percentage of runs yielding negative EPA (Expected Points Added) for the offense
• 9th in EPA per carry (-0.12) – Expected Points Added

The Jets allowed the eighth-highest power success rate (conversion rate on third or fourth down with 2 or fewer yards to go) at 72%, so they struggled in short-yardage situations. They gave up an average rate of runs for 15+ yards (4.24%, 15th). Overall, the Jets were generally middle-of-the-pack in the run game.

Stand pat?

As frustrating as the Jets’ run defense could be at times, the final numbers are not that bad, and their overall defense still finished third in DVOA thanks to the elite pass defense. Perhaps it doesn’t need that many changes. That’s certainly a fair argument. Still, that is the final touch to truly perfect their defense.

Three-step plan

There are three key moves the Jets can make to improve their run defense. Two of them involve players who are already on the team.

Let Bryce Huff go, keep John Franklin-Myers

While keeping Bryce Huff may be the correct overall move for the Jets’ defense, John Franklin-Myers is undoubtedly the better run defender. This is not even as much about Franklin-Myers’ excellent edge-setting (although he is one of the Jets’ best in that role). Rather, it’s about the difference in the Jets’ run defense with Huff on and off the field.

• With Huff: 5.5 yards per carry, 0.147 EPA per carry, 43.4% success rate
• Without Huff: 3.66 yards per carry, -0.178 EPA per carry, 34.4% success rate

That’s a very extreme difference. While some believe that Huff is an okay run defender, these numbers track with his 48.1 PFF run defense grade, which ranked 92nd out of 101 qualified edge defenders (min. 130 run defense snaps). If the Jets are going to improve their run defense, this is a no-brainer.

Theoretically, the Jets can leave Jermaine Johnson (71.0 run defense grade, 26th) and Franklin-Myers (64.3, 44th) as their edge defenders on early downs. If they want to get Will McDonald more involved, his 63.2 grade is also far superior to Huff’s, as is Micheal Clemons’ 66.3.

All the other Jets edge rushers are adequate in the run game. Huff is not.

Re-sign Chuck Clark

There is a vast gulf between Jordan Whitehead and Chuck Clark in the run game. Here is the comparison of their run defense numbers.

• Whitehead 2022: 66.0 PFF grade (41st percentile among S with min. 150 run-defense snaps), 14.9% missed tackle rate (33rd percentile), 4.3% stop rate (84th percentile)
• Clark 2022: 76.9 PFF grade (80th percentile among S with min. 150 run-defense snaps), 6.9% missed tackle rate (84th percentile), 2.6% stop rate (54th percentile)

The fact that Whitehead had such a poor PFF grade despite a high stuff rate indicates just how deficient he is in the run game. He misses tackles as frequently as any safety in the league and is ridden out of plays altogether by poor angles. Meanwhile, while Clark does not make as many highlight-reel plays and hits, he is surehanded as a tackler and takes good angles to run plays.

While Clark is coming off a torn ACL, that will not affect his football instincts and smarts. That is one of the most important attributes an NFL safety can have. Clark will likely garner a very cheap deal because he’s coming off an injury, making the Jets’ defense more cost-effective.

Sign a run-stuffing DT

This assumes, of course, that the Jets will re-sign Quinton Jefferson. If so, they’ll need someone else to play the Al Woods role. Jefferson’s 38.8 PFF run defense grade ranked 65th out of 70 qualified defensive tackles (min. 210 run defense snaps).

They could potentially re-sign Woods himself. Through Week 8, when Woods went down with a torn Achilles, the gulf between the Jets’ run defense when Woods was on and off the field was vast.

• With Woods: 3.29 yards per carry, -0.240 EPA per carry, 31.4% success rate
• Without Woods: 4.87 yards per carry, 0.0247 EPA per carry, 41.1% success rate

This disparity may not be attributable to Woods alone. PFF gave him a 55.4 run defense grade, and he had just a 4.3% run stop rate. Still, perhaps it was simply addition by subtraction.

Because Woods tore his Achilles, the Jets are likely to look elsewhere at defensive tackle. Still, they’ll be seeking a player of a similar ilk — inexpensive and primarily a run stuffer. Ideally, they can find someone with a little more athleticism than Woods has.

The two main options available in that capacity are Shelby Harris and Maurice Hurst. Harris is 6-foot-3 and 300 pounds, fitting closer to the mold of a Jets defensive tackle. He’s been a strong run defender throughout his career, posting a PFF run defense grade of 68.0 or above in six of his seven seasons with at least 100 run defense snaps. With Cleveland in 2023, he posted a 68.7 run defense grade, ranking 13th out of 76 qualified interior defensive linemen (min. 200 run defense snaps).

The appeal of Harris is that he is also a decent pass rusher. He posted an 8.7% pressure rate in 2023, slightly above the 8.2% average for the position. His career average is 8.5%, which is roughly where he’s been in all of his seasons as a starter. He would be a big upgrade over Woods. Since Harris is on a one-year, $3.5 million deal after performing very similarly in 2022, he likely won’t cost too much more than that.

Meanwhile, Hurst, also on Cleveland, saw far fewer run defense snaps than Harris (just 126), but he made the most of them. He posted a 76.5 PFF run defense grade, ranked 7th out of 126 qualifiers (min. 120 run defense snaps). Hurst is 6-foot-2 and 290 pounds, also a Jet-like number. Furthermore, Hurst also posted an excellent 10.4% pressure rate on 173 pass rush snaps.

Hurst was playing on a league-minimum deal this season ($1.08 million). As a backup, he is unlikely to garner that much more than that. It is worth noting that he tore his pectoral muscle in December, making it unclear whether he will be available to start the season. Still, if he’s healthy, this would also be a worthwhile signing for the Jets.

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