2 unacceptable stats NY Jets must reverse in 2024

The New York Jets offense did groundbreaking things in 2023 (and not in a good way)

We all knew the New York Jets’ offense would take a steep nosedive after Aaron Rodgers’ injury, but few could’ve anticipated it would fall this far.

The 2023 Jets offense ranks as arguably the worst in franchise history, which is saying a lot considering the team’s long-standing struggles on offense. It was also one of the worst offenses in NFL history.

New York ranked 32nd in the league with a DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) of -29.8%. That is the worst mark in Jets history across the 43 seasons in which DVOA has been tracked (1981-2023). It is the 14th-worst offensive DVOA of any team over that span, and the worst since the 2018 Cardinals.

DVOA is a stat that evaluates efficiency on a play-by-play basis when accounting for down, distance, field position, time, score, and opponent quality, among other variables. It’s a far more accurate metric for evaluating the quality of a unit than standard stats like points or total yards. So, it’s quite astonishing to see the Jets set a new record-low in this particular category.

Whether it’s the 2020 “Tank for Trevor” year under Adam Gase, the lost 2005 season with Brooks Bollinger and a washed-up Vinny Testaverde, or the pitiful one-win Rich Kotite team in 1995, you can pick any grotesque Jets offense from the past four decades and it was more efficient than the 2023 Jets offense in terms of DVOA.

Two primary weaknesses caused the Jets’ offense to be so lethargic. As the Jets attack this offseason, these are the main things they should be focused on addressing.

1. Third down (Stemming from atrocious play on second down)

The Jets ranked last in the NFL with a 26% conversion rate on third down, which is one of the league’s worst marks over the past three-plus decades. Since 1991 (as far back as data is available at Pro Football Reference), it stands as the eighth-worst single-season conversion rate in the NFL, including the worst for a Jets team. It is the worst mark since the 2015 Rams (25.9%).

New York’s third-down issues can be traced back to the prior two downs. No team in the NFL faced a longer average yards-to-go on third down than the Jets’ 8.1. Not only was it the league’s worst mark in 2023, but it was the worst mark since 2018 (Bills and Cardinals tied at 8.2).

Surprisingly, the Jets weren’t too bad on first down. They tied for 17th with 5.0 yards per play on first down.

Second down was the root of the problem. The Jets ranked last with 3.7 yards per play on second down. It was the worst mark of any team since the 2018 Cardinals (we’re seeing way too many parallels between the Jets and a three-win team led by Josh Rosen).

Finding ways to generate better results on second down is the Jets’ key to improving their third down conversion rate. Too often, they dug themselves into unfavorable positions on third down because of their complete ineptitude on second down.

2. Red zone (Stemming from lack of aggressiveness and penalties)

In addition to ranking last on third down, the Jets ranked last in the red zone, scoring a touchdown on just 32.4% of their trips beyond the 20-yard line. It is the worst mark of any NFL team since the 2012 Chiefs (27%).

There are a few specific problems that served as the roots of the Jets’ hideous red-zone performance.

First off, the Jets were extremely unaggressive through the air when they got into the red zone. They did not take nearly enough shots into the end zone from the far half of the red zone before the field became tight near the goal line.

In the 8-yard range that spans from the 20-yard line to the 12-yard line (we’ll call this the “shot range”), the Jets called 30 pass plays and only threw one touchdown. The league-average team finished the season with a total of 3.5 touchdown passes in this part of the field.

The Jets’ lack of touchdown passes in the shot range is largely because they barely tried to attack downfield. Their ADOT (average depth of target) on 26 pass attempts in this range was just 4.8 yards, far beneath the league average of 6.9 in this part of the field.

It’s not as if the Jets were too run-heavy in this area. They did pass the ball on 60% of their plays in the shot range, which is above the league average of 56.8%. They just weren’t aggressive enough, too often electing to throw the ball short. The Jets constantly tried to inch their way to the goal line instead of trying to get all of the yards in one go. This made scoring touchdowns harder than it had to be.

While Aaron Rodgers’ injury does not excuse Nathaniel Hackett for his overly conservative red-zone play-calling in 2023, it is something the Jets can hopefully fix with Rodgers under center. Rodgers is a proven gunslinger in the shot range.

Over his three years with Hackett from 2019 to 2021, Rodgers had a 7.3 ADOT in the shot range while throwing 14 touchdowns and one interception on 109 pass attempts. In 2022, Rodgers threw seven touchdowns in the shot range (tied for second-most in the NFL) with no interceptions, posting a 7.1 ADOT on 42 attempts.

Alongside the lack of aggressiveness in the passing game, the Jets’ second-biggest issue in the red zone was their penchant for back-breaking penalties.

The Jets tied for fifth in the league with 10 red zone penalties, according to Pro Football Reference, which trailed only the Colts (14), Cowboys (13), Broncos (12), and Chiefs (11). The Eagles, Seahawks, and Vikings also had 10.

However, we have to consider that the Jets spent far less time in the red zone than most teams. They made 37 red zone trips, more than only the Patriots and Panthers, who had 36 apiece. The league-average team made 53 trips.

On a per-trip basis, the Jets averaged 0.27 penalties per red zone trip, which led the league:

1. Jets (0.270) – 10 penalties on 37 red zone trips
2. Colts (0.246) – 14 penalties on 47 red zone trips
3. Patriots (0.222) – 8 penalties on 36 red zone trips
4. Giants (0.209) – 9 penalties on 43 red zone trips
5. Broncos (0.207) – 12 penalties on 58 red zone trips
6. Cardinals (0.205) – 9 penalties on 44 red zone trips
7. Vikings (0.196) – 10 penalties on 51 red zone trips
8. Seahawks (0.185) – 10 penalties on 54 red zone trips
9. Cowboys (0.183) – 13 penalties on 71 red zone trips
10. Chiefs (0.180) – 11 penalties on 61 red zone trips

It’s by a fairly wide margin, too. The difference between the Jets and the third-ranked Patriots (0.048) is larger than the difference between the Patriots and the 10th-ranked Chiefs (0.042).

Whether the Jets improve in the red zone will come down to coaching. Hackett must be more aggressive at calling shots into the end zone (which, in fairness, will be much easier if Rodgers is healthy). He also needs to make sure his players are more disciplined in the most important area of the field.

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