NY Jets: Should Joe Douglas finally make the move he’s avoided?

There’s one thing Douglas has not done in the draft as New York Jets general manager

There has been a trade — the New York Jets are now on the clock.

Jets fans have become accustomed to Joe Douglas’ wheeling and dealing on draft night. In particular, he aggressively moved up twice in the 2022 draft to snag Jermaine Johnson and Breece Hall. He also traded up nine slots to nab Alijah Vera-Tucker the year prior.

One thing Douglas has never done, though, is trade down in the first round.

Douglas has selected Mekhi Becton, Zach Wilson, Vera-Tucker, Sauce Gardner, Garrett Wilson, Johnson, and Will McDonald in the money round, but all were either at or above the Jets’ original draft slot. In 2023, it appeared that the Jets were trying to trade down, but they were forced to take McDonald ahead of where he was slotted on virtually all draft boards.

In 2024, the Jets are short on draft capital after losing their second-round pick in the Aaron Rodgers deal. They’re also strapped for salary cap space, though. Should Douglas try to recoup some of that capital by trading out of the No. 10 overall pick?

Feasibility

In 2023, the Philadelphia Eagles moved up from No. 10 to No. 9 to selected defensive tackle Jalen Carter. The Bears moved back one slot and selected offensive tackle Darnell Wright. The Arizona Cardinals moved up six slots, from No. 12 to No. 6, to select offensive tackle Paris Johnson; the Lions selected running back Jahmyr Gibbs at No. 12.

Those who say that trade-ups in that area of the draft must involve a quarterback are not entirely correct. Even in 2022, Minnesota and Detroit swapped Nos. 10 and 32 for wide receiver Jameson Williams and safety Lewis Cine, and the Commanders and Saints switched Nos. 11 and 16 for WRs Chris Olave and Jahan Dotson.

Even if Bo Nix, Michael Penix Jr., or J.J. McCarthy don’t suddenly rocket up draft boards, there still may be an opportunity to trade back. This draft is not as thin in the middle of the first round as others, and there are mock drafts showing players like Olu Fashanu and Malik Nabers outside the top 10. If a player of that caliber falls, there may well be an opportunity to trade down and nab an extra draft pick.

The return

The problem is that moving down a slot or two at that point doesn’t nab as much as some fans think it will. The Eagles gave up a fourth-round pick to move up one spot for Carter. Fourth-round picks seem par for the course in moving back a slot or two. Sometimes, there can be a pick swap to turn a fourth-rounder into a higher pick.

Of course, the Jets could use another die roll in the fourth round. Still, trying to recoup the second-rounder they’re missing would likely require a more significant trade back. Remember, they gave up two third-rounders, No. 66 and 86, to move up nine spots for Vera-Tucker. It would likely take that kind of move back to receive a second-rounder or something close.

Player difference

A lot can change between now and the draft, especially with the NFL Combine in between. Players’ draft stock can rise and fall significantly. Still, if the Jets are looking for an offensive tackle, it’s conceivable that they might want to trade back from No. 10.

Joe Alt is considered the consensus top tackle in the draft. He is likely to go before the Jets pick, as his most frequent mock draft position is No. 7 to Tennessee right now. Fashanu’s stock seems to be slightly on the decline, though he is currently most frequently mocked to the Jets at No. 10. If Alt is off the board and Fashanu is either also already selected or not the Jets’ next-rated tackle, they could choose to move back a bit.

The next two tackles on the board are J.C. Latham and Taliese Fuaga. Latham is the No. 16 prospect on the consensus big board, while Fuaga is at No. 18. If the Jets want either of those players, especially if they’re comfortable with both, it’s conceivable that they decide to move back.

Right now, Joe Blewett is not high on Fashanu, and he has Latham listed as his No. 2 tackle after Alt (pending watching any Alt film). He thinks Fuaga will be a better guard than tackle. If the rest of the league is not as high on Latham as Blewett is, perhaps the Jets can trade down and still draft him.

Other draft recouping

The easiest way for the Jets to recoup their second-round pick is to tag and trade Bryce Huff. Montez Sweat brought back a second-round pick for Washington, and although he has more of a track record as a full-time player than Huff, he is not nearly the disruptor that Huff is.

If the Jets do choose to keep Huff, they can trade John Franklin-Myers, who could likely bring back a third-round pick. That would also give the Jets another bite at the apple. Considering that they’re projected to receive three seventh-round compensatory picks, Douglas could choose to use some of that excess draft capital to improve his third-rounder(s).

How likely?

As the draft gets closer, we’ll get some more information about the prospects and what the Jets might think of them. Keep an eye on Daniel Jeremiah’s mock drafts as the draft gets closer, as he seems to have his ear to the ground around the NFL and with Douglas in particular. If he stands with Fuaga at No. 10 to the Jets, perhaps a trade down is more likely; that depends on what Fuaga’s stock is at the time.

If Douglas hasn’t traded down until now, I think it’s more likely that he stands pat. In fact, he may try to trade up if Alt survives the Titans, as there is the possibility that the Falcons will go defense and the Jets will try to jump Chicago for the best offensive tackle.

Still, it’s worth keeping in mind and possibly including such a trade in mock draft scenarios.

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