NY Jets Week 18 rooting guide: For both pro-win and pro-tank fans

There are many different ways to approach your New York Jets fandom in Week 18

An NFL fanbase sticks together through thick and thin – until the team is eliminated from the playoffs, that is.

Once a team’s Super Bowl hopes are officially squashed, the fanbase splits into two factions. One side opts to root for losses in hopes of seeing the team improve its future draft position. The other side opts to continue rooting for victories regardless of how it affects draft position. (You could also argue there is a third faction of fans that are completely indifferent to the results.)

This is where the star-crossed New York Jets find themselves entering Week 18 of the 2023 regular season.

On one hand, this is a massive game for the Jets’ draft position. New York could finish anywhere from No. 5 to No. 12 in the first-round draft order depending on how this week’s games play out. But on the other hand, the Jets have an opportunity to snap their 15-game losing streak against the Patriots and send Bill Belichick on his way out of Foxboro with one final loss.

Regardless of which side you fall on, we have you covered with the perfect rooting guide for Week 18.

Let’s start with the pro-tank fans. After that, we’ll break down the path to success for fans who are itching to see a victory over The Hoodie, and we’ll wrap up by identifying some storylines that will be intriguing to follow even if you are indifferent about the final result.

How the Jets can move up to No. 5 in the draft order (And foil New England’s hopes of drafting a franchise QB)

The Jets are currently situated in the No. 8 slot of the draft, although they still have plenty of room to rise. They could leap as many as three teams this week if they lose to New England. However, with a victory, the Jets could be leap-frogged by as many as four teams.

This is also a crucial game for Patriots fans who have embraced the tank. Currently situated in the No. 3 slot, New England has a chance to secure the No. 2 pick with a loss plus a Commanders win (vs. Dallas). At the very least, a loss would secure their current position at No. 3. If the Patriots defeat the Jets, they could slide down to the No. 5 slot if Arizona (vs. Seattle) and the Giants (vs. Philadelphia) both lose.

Here is how the top 16 looks at the moment:

1. Chicago (via CAR): 2-14 (.518 SOS)
2. Washington: 4-12 (.515)
3. New England: 4-12 (.518)
4. Arizona: 4-12 (.562)
5. NY Giants: 5-11 (.511)
6. LA Chargers: 5-11 (.526)
7. Tennessee: 5-11 (.529)
8. NY Jets: 6-10 (.507)
9. Atlanta: 7-9 (.423)
10. Chicago: 7-9 (.463)
11. Las Vegas: 7-9 (.489)
12. Minnesota: 7-9 (.507)
13. New Orleans: 8-8 (.430)
14. Denver: 8-8 (.485)
15. Seattle: 8-8 (.515)
16. Cincinnati: 8-8 (.581)

The Jets – who sit alone as the only six-win team – own the strength-of-schedule tiebreaker over each of the three five-win teams ahead of them. So, if the Jets lose, they will rise one spot for each win by a five-win team, giving them a best-case scenario of rising three spots to land at No. 5. Worst-case scenario, all three teams lose and the Jets protect their No. 8 slot.

All three of those teams are playing at home, although they are each facing a team that is currently in playoff position. The Giants will host the Eagles, the Chargers will host the Chiefs, and the Titans will host the Jaguars. Jets fans will want to root for these teams to win.

If the Jets win, there is a strong possibility they will fall from the No. 8 slot. There are four seven-win teams trailing the Jets, and three of them own the strength-of-schedule tiebreaker over New York. Minnesota is tied with the Jets at .507 and may or may not take the tiebreaker depending on how this week’s games play out.

In the event of a victory over New England, the Jets will slide one spot for each loss between Atlanta (at New Orleans), Chicago (at Green Bay), and Las Vegas (vs. Denver). Minnesota is playing in Detroit and would pass the Jets with a loss if their strength-of-schedule ends up lower than the Jets’. So, Jets fans should root for these teams to win, as each victory would help limit the Jets’ fall in case they defeat New England.

Here’s a summary of which teams Jets fans should be rooting for to help improve the team’s draft outlook:

For Jets to rise:

• Giants (vs. Eagles)
• Chargers (vs. Chiefs)
• Titans (vs. Jaguars)

For Jets to avoid falling if they beat New England:

• Falcons (at Saints)
• Bears (at Packers)
• Raiders (vs. Broncos)
• Vikings (at Lions)

How Jets can walk out of Foxboro with a win

If you’re a fan who wants to see the Jets give Belichick a sendoff to forget, let’s briefly go over some keys to victory.

This is the worst Patriots team since 1992, but the Jets still couldn’t take them down back in Week 3 despite having home-field advantage. New England’s defense completely smothered the Jets, allowing 171 yards of offense. That remains the Patriots defense’s best mark of the season by nearly 50 yards compared to the closest game.

New England also generated 358 yards of offense in that game, which remains their third-best mark of the year. The game was not nearly as close as the 15-10 score would suggest. Robert Saleh‘s squad was out-coached and out-played by a team that, unbeknownst at the time, would establish itself as the AFC’s bottom-feeders.

Luckily for the Jets, it’s actually preferable to play this Patriots team in New England. Three of their four wins came on the road. At home, they are 1-7 with a brutal average of 13.3 points per game.

The Patriots defeated the Bills 29-25 in their lone home win. Outside of that game, they were held to 20 points or less in their other seven home games, going 0-7 in those contests.

As long as the Jets defense takes care of business and doesn’t let New England embark on a surprising offensive outburst, the offense should be able to do enough for the victory. While the Patriots have been solid defensively this season, they have cooled down a little bit recently, allowing at least 20 points in three consecutive games.

20 seems to be the magic number. If the Jets can hold New England under that mark, there should be a window for the Jets to reach 20 points themselves and get the win.

But as we know, scoring 20 points is asking a lot of this anemic Jets offense. New York’s offense has produced 20 points in just five of its 16 games this year. On the road, they’ve done it once out of seven games.

It will be crucial for the Jets’ defense and special teams to aid the offense in putting up points. Defensively, forcing turnovers will be essential. When the Patriots turn the ball over at least twice, they are 0-7 while scoring 9.6 points per game on offense. They also allow 24 points per game when turning the ball over multiple times, compared to 20.1 points per game with fewer than two turnovers.

The Jets have a great chance to create short fields for the offense via takeaways. New England’s defense ranks 30th in average starting field position this season, which is a product of the offense’s turnover issues. On top of that, the defense will also have an unusually strong chance of scoring points on its own. The Patriots have allowed five defensive touchdowns this year.

There is also an opportunity for New York to gain advantages on special teams. The Patriots are 31st in special teams DVOA while the Jets are fifth-best.

It’s foolish to expect anything from this broken Jets offense, especially against a Patriots defense that ranks ninth-best in DVOA. However, the Jets’ defense should be able to hold the Patriots’ abysmal offense in check on the scoreboard, which will likely result in the two offenses looking equally inept.

From there, the Jets need their defense and special teams to generate points by either creating short fields for the offense or scoring points on their own. Without that extra edge in the Jets’ favor, the Patriots could easily grind out another ugly victory as they did in their last two wins over New York.

The Patriots scored one offensive touchdown and 16 offensive points across their last two games against the Jets and still won both contests. They did it through classic Patriots principles. New England never turned the ball over in either of the two games, and in last year’s Foxboro win, they were the team to make the game-changing special teams play, sealing the win with a late punt return touchdown. These things were all the Patriots needed against a terrible Jets offense.

If the Jets can flip the script in the turnover margin and on special teams, they should be able to defeat the Patriots on Sunday even if their offense remains as horrendous as it has been all year.

Young players to watch in Foxboro

Whether you are a pro-tank fan, anti-tank fan, or indifferent fan, it is always intriguing to monitor the performance of key young players who figure to play an important role in 2024.

Rookie center Joe Tippmann will get another start in what has been an up-and-down debut campaign. Tippmann has shown some high-level flashes, including four starts where he allowed zero pressures (the most by a rookie Jets lineman since Nick Mangold had 12 in 2006), but he’s also had quite a few low points.

Since Week 13, Tippmann has allowed the seventh-most pressures among centers (10) and is tied for the most penalties (5). Tippmann’s snap accuracy has also been a problem, including an errant snap that caused a turnover in Week 16.

Tippmann clearly has the talent to become an elite center but must establish better consistency in his second season. Sunday will be an excellent challenge for him to close out his first year. On the road against Bill Belichick’s complex blitz schemes, Tippmann will be tested. Whether he performs well or poorly, this is an experience Tippmann will learn a lot from as he watches his tape throughout the offseason.

In what will be his fourth consecutive game with a decent-sized role in the offense, rookie running back Israel Abanikanda will be looking to bounce back from a tough game in Cleveland last week. Abanikanda gained only 30 yards on nine plays (2 carries and 7 targets) and also lost a fumble on a kickoff return.

Will McDonald‘s strange rookie year will come to a close. Despite the Jets being out of the playoff picture for a while now, they have refused to boost the playing time of their first-round pick, even though his progress and future outlook will play an integral role in their upcoming decision on free-agent edge rusher Bryce Huff.

In 14 games this year, McDonald has only played 167 defensive snaps, which is 11.9 per game and approximately 18% of available snaps. Looking specifically at the passing game (which is where the bulk of McDonald’s upside lies), McDonald has only played 89 pass-rush snaps all year – just 6.4 per game. That is an incredibly small sample size for the Jets to evaluate as they head into McDonald’s second year, where he will already be 25 years old.

Nothing has changed recently. Last week, McDonald played 10 snaps (17%) while tying his season-low with four pass-rush snaps.

McDonald has displayed solid efficiency in his limited playing time this year, recording 10 total pressures on 89 pass-rush snaps (11.2% pressure rate). He has also been in on three sacks (one full and two half), giving him a stellar 3.37% sack rate. For perspective, if you project that rate over 300 pass-rush snaps, it equates to 10 sacks. In addition, McDonald has generated a 15.3% pass-rush win rate, per PFF, which ranks 26th among the 130 edge rushers to play at least 80 pass-rush snaps (putting McDonald at the 81st percentile).

None of these rookies will make or break their futures with one game, but it will be interesting to see where they stand heading into their first full offseasons as NFL players.

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