Offseason Mailbag: Draft sleepers, ‘Sunday Night Football’ in Atlanta & Falcons rookie numbers

You asked. We answered.

The Falcons have been a mainstay in the national media thanks to their decision to draft Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr. with the No. 8 overall pick. It’s a pick that has fueled furious debate about the right way to build a team.

We’re not here to talk about that, though. That conversation has overshadowed the rest of Atlanta’s draft class, and I was happy to see some questions that will allow me to share my thoughts on the other seven players in the Falcons’ 2024 rookie class.

If you’d like to read more about the decision to draft Penix, however, here are some Falcoholic stories that will certainly scratch that itch:

• Falcons’ QB plan puts them in ‘All-Madden’ mode
• Why Atlanta’s quarterback dance is a delicate one
• How Penix’s skillset fits with the Falcons

Alright, let’s get to today’s mailbag!

In your opinion, which Falcons draft pick is the sleeper of the bunch and who will significantly contribute this season? – Ed Helinski (@MrEd315)

I’m not sure if Brandon Dorlus counts as a sleeper at this point, given that he has received a lot of praise as possibly the Falcons’ best pick in the draft. He’s certainly considered the best value. But I really like Dorlus, and I could easily see him being the most significant contributor from this class in Year 1 In fact, I think the first three defensive line picks will be strong contributors this Fall.

The sleepers of this group are Casey Washington and JD Bertrand. I think Washington’s game will fit nicely in Atlanta’s new-look offense. He’s sneaky shaky and has the tools to turn underneath routes into big gains after the catch. As for Bertrand, he’s just fun as heck to watch. He has an excellent nose for the football and a knack for showing up where offenses least expect him. It’s really only his size that could limit him at the next level, but his intangibles and instincts are superb.

Will one of those guys turn out to be this year’s DeMarcco Hellams? Time will tell.

Is it time for the city of Atlanta to host a Sunday night game again? – Falcao Brasil (@RiseUp_BR)

I was stunned to learn in my research for this question that the last time the Falcons hosted a game on Sunday night was in Week 2 of the 2019 season. It’s a game I remember extremely well, because I was working for the team at the time and it ended in the most spectacular fashion. You might recall Julio Jones’ improbable and incredible screen touchdown late in the fourth quarter.

I was thiiiis close to breaking the no-cheering rule in the press box on that play. So, yeah, I’d say it’s high time Atlanta hosts another night game to close out the NFL weekend. But here’s the thing: Sunday Night Football gets first dibs of the action when selecting games, and given the Falcons’ lack of success, it’s not surprising they’ve been denied that coveted spot. A lackluster NFC South doesn’t help matters there either. However, if the Falcons do get something going this season, they have the type of young starpower to warrant a flex into that primetime matchup. Let’s hope it happens because it’s long overdue. And the city of Atlanta can absolutely turn up on Sunday night.

How much success would the Falcons need to have for Zac Robinson to receive a head coaching offer? – SpecsTar (@TarSpecs)

You can never say never in this league, especially when it comes to coaches from the Sean McVay tree, but I’d be shocked if Robinson got that kind of look after just one season. That’s not a knock on Robinson at all—I haven’t seen nearly enough of his work to render judgment either way—but more about his lighter coaching history and lack of play-calling experience.

The latter isn’t necessarily disqualifying anymore after we just saw Dave Canales get the top job in Carolina after just one year as a play caller, but his situation is slightly different. Canales was the quarterbacks coach in Seattle two years ago when Geno Smith had easily the best year of his career and was maybe the surprise player of the league. This past year, Canales helped Baker Mayfield get his career back on track with a season few saw coming. So he makes sense for a franchise that needs Bryce Young to show rapid improvement.

In Atlanta, Robinson will work with an established veteran in Kirk Cousins with an offense that is largely recognized to have a lot of young talent. That feels like a recipe for the quarterback to get a lot of credit in the turnaround and players like Drake London, Kyle Pitts and Bijan Robinson sharing the national spotlight. Maybe the best case for Robinson would be a deep playoff run with Michael Penix Jr. starting a majority of the season.

I guess it’s not impossible, but it feels like a long shot.

How about the rookie numbers… – Al deGroat (@AldeGroat)

No official word from the team yet on that front, but I’d imagine it’s coming sometime soon. While I don’t have any information right now, here are the numbers that aren’t currently assigned to a player:

Nos. 2, 10, 11, 14, 15, 16, 30, 31, 36, 37, 40, 42, 46, 47, 48, 54, 57, 58, 59, 60, 61, 72, 78, 79, 82, 83, 84, 85, 86, 88, 93 and 98.

Just because I think it’s kind of fun, I’ll take a stab at predicting the draft picks’ numbers.

• Michael Penix Jr. – No. 10 (He wore No. 9 in college, but that currently belongs to Rondale Moore.)
• Ruke Orhorhoro – No. 93 (He wore No. 33 in college, but NFL rules won’t allow that.)
• Bralen Trice – No. 48 (He wore Nos. 45 and 8 in college. Both are currently taken so this feels like a nice compromise.)
• Brandon Dorlus – No. 98 (He wore Nos. 97 and 3 in college, but both are taken. If I’m sticking to the logic above, he and Orhorhoro should flip a coin for 93. I like him in this number, though.)
• JD Bertrand – No. 47 (He wore No. 27 in college, so it’s a toss-up between 37, 47 and 57 for me. Sensing a pattern here?)
• Jase McClellan – No. 11 (He wore No. 2 at Alabama, but I’m just not sure the Falcons are ready to put Matt Ryan’s number back out there yet. In high school, McClellan wore No. 9. Combine those two, and you get 11. If only my math teachers could see me now.)
• Casey Washington – No. 14 (He wore Nos. 8 and 14 in college. Feel pretty good about this one.)
• Zion Logue – No. 79 (He wore No. 96 at Georgia, which currently belongs to Zach Harrison. Logue had No. 9 in high school. This one could go in a bunch of directions.)

What’s your opinion on the Falcons DL rotation? With Raheem rushing 5 on a bunch of nickel downs, what would your ideal 5 man pressure package — what role do you believe Ruke/Trice/Dorlus will have year 1? – Damski (@Damski32)

I love this question, and it felt like a great one to end on. I expect you’ll see a mix of well-timed five-man pressures mixed in against certain teams and in advantageous situations, but I also expect simulated pressures to be the primary way Atlanta looks to attack the quarterback. I’ll give you my thoughts on each.

For the blitz packages, I think you’re looking at a heavy mix of Kaden Ellis and Troy Andersen along with the front four. Ellis rushed the passer on 15.9 percent of his passing downs, which led all non-linemen and edge defenders for Atlanta last season—and he was effective when doing so. Despite playing only two games, Andersen ranked just behind Ellis with a 12 percent rush rate on passing downs. The interesting player here is rookie JD Bertrand, who was an adept pass rusher at Notre Dame from the inside linebacker position. His 82.6 pass-rush grade ranked 13^th among all linebackers with at least 50 pass-rush snaps last season, per Pro Football Focus.

Along the front in nickel downs, I think you’ll of course see Grady Jarrett and David Onyemata on the inside. Brandon Dorlus could be someone who carves out a role here given his versatility and consistent pressure production in college. That final premium rusher spot will likely be a mix of Arnold Ebiketie, Bralen Trice and Lorenzo Carter. It’s also very possible one of the interior linebackers comes off the field for the pure five-man blitz front you’re talking about, but I think Raheem Morris likes to disguise things a bit more than that.

The Simulated pressures will likely involve many of the guys I previously mentioned, but I think early-down packages would also include Zach Harrison and Ta’Quon Graham quite a bit. Ruke Orhorhoro is a bit of a wild card to me because I think his best use early on will be in run defense, but he also has upside as a pass rusher.

In the secondary, keep an eye on how Richie Grant is used. I think he’s far better in the box than he was in man coverage 35 yards downfield, and a reason for that is his ability to rush the passer. He and Mike Hughes are two players who could be used sparingly but effectively on simulated pressures.

Following the draft, I’m a big fan of Atlanta’s front seven. There are a lot of interesting players on this roster now, which will give the coaching staff some mix-and-match looks throughout camp to get it sorted. I’d expect the competition there to be off the charts, which should only help the growth of the team’s young players.

Thanks to everyone who submitted questions for today’s mailbag! If you’d like to submit a question for the future, leave it in the comments below or send to @willmcfadden on Twitter.