Offseason Mailbag: Grady Jarrett’s impact, NFL Draft depth & defensive pressure

You asked. We answered.

All has been quiet on the Falcons’ front for a few weeks now, giving us all an opportunity to bask in the glow of signing Kirk Cousins. That’s got to be the reason no moves have been made, right? RIGHT???

Who knows what the master plan is at the moment, but I think it’s fair to say the roster is in a pretty settled spot barring the draft still to come. There may be a few lower-level moves to come, but Atlanta has essentially cleared the deck to go defense-heavy in the draft, and they may now be focused on internal financial maneuvering. We’ve got a few questions about the defense and the draft below, so let’s move right along to the mailbag shall we?

Do you know the advanced stats for how the defense did before and after Grady got hurt? – Nick Penticoff (@NickPenticoff)

In my experience, there’s not yet a great way to determine the impact that a single defensive player has on a game. Sure, PFF grades each individual player and we know the stats that matter most for each position. But in terms of how a player’s absence ripples out across the rest of the unit, the data isn’t really there yet. However, I do like this question and tried my best to provide some numbers to help back up the eye test.

Below, I’ve compiled some key metrics for Atlanta’s defense from RBSDM.com, which is an excellent stat site from Ben Baldwin. I encourage you to play around on the site if you’re interested in analytics, but here are some numbers that I think give us a small piece of the story.

Grady Jarrett suited up for the first eight weeks of the season before tearing his ACL very early in Week 8. This means the Falcons had their star defensive tackle for half the season, which is a tidy split for us to analyze. I sorted these numbers by down, because a defender’s role can change based on down and distance. I also leaned on the dropback success rate as a better metric than EPA for this exercise, because the secondary plays a large role in the points added for an offense through the air and I wanted to mitigate that.

You’ll notice a slight downtick in the metrics I’ve identified on first and third down. Second-down performance improved slightly, but that could also be a natural regression to the mean or a product of the offenses Atlanta played late in the year. The absence of Jarrett may have also been mitigated by David Onyemata, who is also an outstanding player in his own right. I wish I had a better answer to give you, but I’m no true statistician.

But none of us have to be to know how good Jarrett really is. Even in a year when he got off to a slow start, he was a part of the defense’s fast one.

What receivers will you be looking at on day 3? – Antwon Smitty Smith (@FatboiSlim_21)

My preference would be to grab a receiver on Day 2, because I think you can find a star-caliber player in this year’s draft in the second or third rounds. However, Puka Nacua was perhaps the biggest breakout player in the league last year as the final pick of the fifth round. The year before that, Romeo Doubs and Khalil Shakir each made an impact as Day 3 picks. It can be done, and this year’s crop of receivers is very deep. Here are a few names that I like.

Tahj Washington – A slot receiver who has the toughness to be a positive factor in the run game and would be an excellent special teamer on multiple units.

Javon Baker – He could potentially slide up to Day 2, but he possesses a strong combination of NFL traits. An Atlanta native, Baker is a great route runner who could develop into a WR3.

Malik Washington – He had a huge year after transferring to Virginia, and he plays like a running back from the slot. Get the ball in Washington’s hands quickly and let him go to work.

Edge should receive attention, but does anyone know about potential corners in the upcoming draft? Is the class deep? Can we get a good one in the 2nd round? Are there good FA corners we can rent for a year? – MrMustard2023

This was a question posed in the comments, but I thought it would be a good one to address here. The Falcons could absolutely land a good cornerback in the second round with players like Ennis Rakestraw Jr., T.J. Tampa, Max Melton and Mike Sainristil standing out on my list. I also like Renardo Green as a player just below that tier, but this position isn’t as deep as some of the others. Kalen King is also an interesting name in this year’s draft because he’s got a lot of the tools and production you’d typically look for on Day 2, but his tape against Ohio State could scare people off.

As for the free agent corners remaining, Xavien Howard is perhaps at the top of the list and would have experience in the Vic Fangio style of defense coming from Miami. But the 30-year-old would likely cost a pretty penny and is fresh off the worst season of his career. Ahkello Weatherspoon has been a popular name connected to the Falcons because he played with the Rams last season. My issue with the free agent options left is primarily age. The Falcons could use a young, talented corner to add to the mix.

Is it true that the new defensive system rushes more with linebackers and corners than edge rushers? – jajuanm2

I completely understand where you’re coming from with this question, but no. Even in blitz-heavy defenses, your edge rushers are going to be the primary pass rushers for a defense. Some players like T.J. Watt or Micah Parsons may be labeled as linebackers, but for all intents and purposes, they are edge rushers. More specifically to this new defensive system, what you’ll likely see are simulated pressures, which are still four-man rushes but a different group of four could be coming from one snap to the next. It’s an illusion of simplicity for the offense pre-snap that will change dramatically post-snap.

That will of course involve using linebackers, corners and safeties as pass rushers, so you’re definitely going to see that. They just won’t be used to rush the passer more than the actual edge rushers. Linebacker Ernest Jones was the most utilized pass rusher for the Rams who wasn’t a defensive lineman or edge rusher. According to PFF, he had 141 pass rush snaps, which resulted in 37 pressures and 4.5 sacks. By contrast, Kaden Elliss had 101 pass rush snaps, amounting to 26 pressures and four sacks.

For their respective teams, Jones and Elliss were the primary second-level defenders tasked with rushing the passer. A lot of that likely has to do with their specific skills, which is oftentimes what coaches most take into account. I expect this defense to rush four players more often than not, and for those four players to be a combination of the three down linemen and two edge defenders/outside linebackers.

Thanks to everyone who submitted questions for today’s mailbag! If you’d like to submit a question for the future, leave it in the comments below or send to @willmcfadden on Twitter.