Offseason Mailbag: Haason Reddick rumors, free agency lulls & The Taylor Swift Factor

You asked. We answered.

Thank you to everyone who submitted questions for today’s Atlanta Falcons mailbag! They are starting to come in bunches, so I apologize if I couldn’t get to all of them today. If I missed yours, I have saved it for next time and I will get to it in the future.

Because today’s mailbag is a long one, I’m going to cut out the preamble and get right to it!

Which Falcons player is most likely to start dating a world-famous singer who persuades the NFL to allow the team to win a Super Bowl? – Andy (@AndySGallagher)

Bijan Robinson and Billie Eilish. Who says no?

If we can’t make the big move on defense that some are mentioning (a certain eagle), what are some other big/medium moves we could make? Also, any news on Campbell? Love to see him suit up for 1 more!!!!! – Gavin Bailey (@biffthejew)

So, unlike some people out there, I’m not really in any hurry to say that I’ve got all these sources telling me things that ultimately don’t come to fruition. Not saying that’s the case here with the Haason Reddick reports, but this offseason has been absolute silly season with people who have questionable credentials reporting rumors with absolute certainty, so I take it all with a grain of salt. My approach is to use my knowledge of how NFL teams operate to connect dots and make educated guesses. But I won’t package any of those thoughts as reports.

Logically, I don’t know if Reddick makes much sense for Atlanta. For starters, a trade for him would also mean trading for his contract—and he’s set to count over $21 million against the 2024 cap. As of Wednesday evening, the Falcons have less than $4.5 million in cap space. Could they clear more relatively easily? Sure. Could they negotiate a new contract with Reddick? Sure. But keep in mind that he’s seeking a pay raise, so he’d still be very expensive.

He will also turn 30 at the start of the 2024 season, which is likely why he’s seeking one last big payout. There’s no doubt Reddick is worth top dollar as a pass rusher; he’s got 50.5 sacks over the last four seasons, which is absurd. After investing as much money as they did in Kirk Cousins, I just don’t see them turning around and giving Reddick a huge contract. Again, maybe it will work out, but if they feel any of the top edge rushers in the draft can become a double-digit sack player, that’s a much more affordable path.

There aren’t many free-agent edge rushers or outside linebackers left who make a lot of sense (to me) as a big splash for the Falcons. So, I do think a trade would be the way they go. Again, maybe that’s for Reddick, but that would likely be their last notable move of the offseason until the draft. I still think the draft offers the best combination of talent and value at this point.

To your point about Campbell, I was really happy to see him break out in Green Bay. He worked really hard to develop his craft here in Atlanta, and I don’t think the Falcons always used him correctly. They tried really hard to make him a pass rusher early on. However, Atlanta is nicely set at linebacker so I don’t foresee him coming back.

Wow, that was a whole lot. I’ll keep these shorter from here on out, but this was a great exercise into the different considerations a team has to make when approaching talent acquisition.

What are the reasons Terry is holding out on making cuts/extensions/restructures? I don’t see why waiting to make a trade would matter, I’m just genuinely confused for any reason(s) to wait. – Obi Marshall (@WiscoDirtyBird)

Totally get the confusion, Obi. I have also wondered why there hasn’t been at least one Schefter or Russini tweet in a little bit mentioning the Falcons making any sort of move. Here are at least a few thoughts I have as to what could be taking a little bit longer than usual.

It could be that the Cousins contract really was the big splash Atlanta was committed to making this offseason. Plus, we know that the Falcons got into a little bit of a bidding war with the Vikings which undoubtedly pushed up the price. This may have been a case of landing one big fish over a bunch of them like last offseason, and they already had less cap space to start with. Adding a receiver by trading away Desmond Ridder also makes sense using that logic, because you aren’t overpaying on the open market. It’s a bit more fiscally responsible.

It could also be that they are being extremely deliberate right now. There are a lot of new people in the building, but plenty of holdovers as well. That means a lot of these conversations are happening between people without years of familiarity to rely upon. So, a player they might have easily extended or cut this offseason under Arthur Smith may no longer be such a black-and-white decision. What is the new vision, and does that player fit? I don’t mind them taking their time on that type of decision.

Finally, it could be that they do feel the roster is pretty complete. That would allow them to be very meticulous in whatever moves remain. And, given the dwindling pool of free agents, I do think trades are seriously in play. Those can drag out, though, because they require two parties agreeing and feeling good about the compensation.

I’d be surprised if we don’t get at least one more move sometime soon, however.

Who would you like the Falcons to draft at 8? – ngray6 (@ngray251)

Ladd McConkey is my adopted draft son, but even I wouldn’t go so far as to say he should be the pick. As much as I love the top receivers in this draft and two weeks ago would have advocated strongly for any of them if they slip, the recent additions at that position change my thinking. I really like Dallas Turner, but I also really like Jared Verse and even Laiatu Latu. All three of those guys have my strongest stamp of approval. But don’t discount the possibility of going with the top corner in their book, be that Quinyon Mitchell, Terrion Arnold or someone else.

Photo by Ryan Kang/Getty Images

At this point, I’m torn between Turner and Verse. Turner plays like a madman and crosses up tackles with his speed and agility. He also fights throughout the whistle to make a play in any way possible. However, Verse offers more pop behind his pads and can run through a player just as easily as he runs around him. It really could be a preference of play style here. Here’s one piece of information to tuck away, though: Dave Huxtable is entering his second year as a senior defensive assistant with Atlanta. Before joining the Falcons, Huxtable was an analyst at the University of Alabama, where he worked directly with Turner.

Which falcon on this roster has the potential to be an all-time favorite of yours? – Kai (@Soverince)

As a kid growing up, my favorite player of all time was Michael Vick. I’m certainly not alone in that regard, and I believe that’s still true in my heart of hearts. However, Grady Jarret is the current Falcons player whom I most admire. I have the utmost respect for how he handles his business. I’ve interviewed him after some gutting losses, and he is just as professional as he is after exhilarating wins.

Jarrett brings it in every practice and in every game. There’s a reason he’s so widely respected throughout the league and why I believe he will one day end up in the Falcons’ Ring of Honor. He’s not just a star on the field, he’s a star off of it.

Broad one for you: What differences in in-game coaching decisions do you expect to see this year? – John Manning (@ObiJohnKenobi_)

Wow, this is a different type of question, John. Kudos! It’s also a very tricky one to answer. The schematic stuff is more straightforward: I expect a lot more passing on offense and more zone coverage on defense with an emphasis on simulated pressures. But the in-game coaching decisions, things like timeout usage, fourth-down aggressiveness, etc…, is hard to predict without a proven track record or speaking directly to the coaches.

Raheem Morris was last a full-time head coach in 2011, and so many aspects of the game have evolved since then. That makes it hard to rely on any trends from his first stint. One aspect of game strategy that I do think will change is a willingness to play freely and aggressively. A fair criticism of Arthur Smith was his tendency to employ a conservative approach against teams the Falcons were better than. He didn’t want his team to lose themselves the game and that backfired a few times last season. I think Morris will come out swinging a bit more—for better and worse.

Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Do you think we make a move in the defensive side of the ball before the draft? – J.R. Clark (@grimm1128)

I do expect at least a couple of moves on the defensive side of the ball, yes. For starters, Calais Campbell and Bud Dupree are still available, and one of them may return on a short-term deal. We’re also in the middle period between the fast start to free agency and the calmer second and third waves. Terry Fontenot built his reputation, in part, on finding players who other teams overlooked or disregarded for one reason or another. That makes me confident they have a few players in mind who we may not even be considering at this point. They aren’t desperate on that side of the ball, but I don’t think they want to cede any of the momentum they built last year, either.

Even if we get an EDGE in Round 1 (Verse/Latu/Turner), isn’t it too risky to count on a rookie and an Ebiketie/Malone breakout as our main pass rushers? Which players (besides Reddick) could the Falcons go after that would bring 10+ sacks? – Falcons Play Action (@FalconsPlayBR)

I guess it depends on what you’d define as too risky. Keep in mind that the Falcons finished with 42 sacks last season. That’s the highest total they’ve had since 2004! Even the defenses that included John Abraham, who is the last true star pass rusher for Atlanta, didn’t match last year’s sack total. Sidenote: We don’t give Patrick Kerney, who led the team with 13 sacks in 2004, nearly enough love.

Your concerns are not unfounded, though. Calais Campbell and Bud Dupree who led the team with 6.5 sacks each are no longer on the roster, and Arnold Ebiketie’s six sacks came on 16 pressures, which is a conversion rate that may not be sustainable if his role increases.

It would be risky to bet on a rookie stepping in and immediately becoming a double-digit sack player. The last rookie to do that was Micah Parsons in 2021, but he’s off to a Hall-of-Fame start to his career and shouldn’t be looked at as the norm. One interesting wrinkle to all of this, though, is that Kobie Turner led all rookies last year with nine sacks for the Rams. And that’s one reason why I think the Falcons could ultimately look to the draft—Raheem Morris’s track record with young players is strong.

If the Falcons do want to address this need with a proven NFL player, which has been their preferred way of operating under Terry Fontenot, I think you’d either see a couple mid-tier moves in free agency (like Campbell and Dupree last year) or they’d make one big trade. But then you factor in price tag and fit. Here are a couple of names I’m just throwing out there who could make sense in a trade.

Jonathon Cooper – Former 7^th-round pick for the Broncos who is entering the final year of his rookie deal after recording nine sacks last season.

Nik Bonitto – Also a member of the Broncos, and he also had nine sacks last season. He is entering his third season as a former 2^nd-round pick.

DeMarcus Walker – He only had four sacks for the Bears last year, but he had 47 total pressures which suggests there’s much more upside there. He’s going into the second year of a three-year deal.

Thanks to everyone who submitted questions for today’s mailbag! If you’d like to submit a question for the future, leave it in the comments below or send to @willmcfadden on Twitter.