Opinion: Setting the odds for the Bills’ decision in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft

Where’s your (completely fictional) money going?

Buffalo Bills general manager Brandon Beane continued his work fine-tuning the team’s roster this past week, signing defensive tackle DeShawn Williams to a one year deal. Williams’ signing adds another body to a defensive line that’s seen the re-signing of edge rusher A.J. Epenesa and interior defensive lineman DaQuan Jones along with the addition of former Washington Commander Casey Toohill and former Los Angeles Charger Austin Johnson — to provide depth in the edge rusher and defensive tackle rooms respectively.

With Beane seemingly checking off boxes in regards to numbers at positions of need, the Bills once again head into the NFL Draft without one singular glaring immediate hole on the roster. At least to such a degree that would lead fans to believe strongly that one particular position, based upon urgent need, will clearly be the team’s first pick.

Let’s put our (entirely fabricated) money where our mouths are.

I’m going to lay out odds for each of the following positions being the Buffalo Bills’ first pick in the 2024 NFL Draft (which could occur at 28 overall, earlier, or later), and you can tell me what you’re putting on which bet in the comments section. We can revisit after the draft to see who hit it big with their Bruce Bucks.

Edge Rusher (+100, $100 Bruce Bucks bet nets you a pretend $100 payout)

The Bills made the personnel moves mentioned above, but none of them pushes the pass rush for the team forward in a meaningful way. Beane outlined earlier this offseason that if he’s going to “stretch (himself) financially, it’s going to be in the trenches,” which tracks with previous comments from the team’s head of personnel acquisition. Previous free-agency splash Von Miller is 35 years old, and Buffalo’s pass rush has let the team down in big spots in the playoffs recently. Given the team’s leaning toward stellar athletes high in the draft, the Bills taking edge rusher Chop Robinson from Penn State feels like a possibility at either 28 overall or wherever Beane ends up landing after a highly probable trade.

Wide Receiver (+150, $100 Bruce Bucks bet nets you a pretend payout of $150)

Something else has been said from the Bills’ decision makers this offseason that might tip their hand on their mindset surrounding the early portions of the 2024 NFL Draft.

Head coach Sean McDermott outlined the importance of “explosive plays” when he had his end-of-season press conference, even going as far as to cite data indicating that scoring drives typically contain explosive plays rather than slow and methodical movement down the field. With the offseason personnel acquisition phase of the NFL calendar in full swing, McDermott doubled down on that, per Sal Capaccio of WGR550:

“You’ve got to be able to get the ball either thrown down the field, or you’ve got to be able to complete it short and then have it run down the field,” said McDermott with reporters. “Whether it’s via RAC (Run After Catch) or throwing the ball down the field and completing it on deeper passes.”

The NFL Draft in 2024 has no shortage of talented wide receivers, and with the emphasis on explosion, Texas’ Xavier Worthy feels like he could be the explosive play-in-a-bottle the team would covet with their first pick.

Interior Offensive Lineman (+300, $100 Bruce Bucks bet nets you a pretend payout of $300)

The Bills have seemingly made former left guard Connor McGovern their new center (and perhaps the largest center in NFL history), with the re-signing of previous utility lineman David Edward being a signal that he’ll be the first man up at McGovern’s vacated spot on the offensive line. But Edwards’ two-year, $6.195 million contract doesn’t scream “we’d pass up on a really great player because we have him”-type money. Beane’s affinity for the trenches is well-established by now, and they may prefer to have a four-year rookie contract (with maybe a fifth-year option if the Bills’ pick is in the first round) in that spot to replenish the talent that went out the door with the trade of former do-everything lineman Ryan Bates to the Chicago Bears and the release of previous Pro Bowl center Mitch Morse.

If the Bills stand pat at 28 and Oregon interior offensive lineman Jackson Powers-Johnson is there, I wouldn’t be surprised if they put the card in. If they traded back (which has never happened with their first-round pick in the Brandon Beane era), Zach Frazier out of West Virginia has the type of background that has historically appealed to this regime.

Interior Defensive Lineman (+300, $100 Bruce Bucks bet nets you a pretend payout of $300)

Take everything I said about pass rusher above, but then add less of a “bodies” need. The Bills’ elder statesman in the DT room (a recently re-signed DaQuan Jones) was still playing at a high level after returning from a pectoral injury late in 2023, which differentiates this perceived need from that of edge rusher. The combo of Jones and Ed Oliver (coming off his best season as a pro), takes the odds on this down, but Buffalo’s third and fourth defensive tackles in 2023 (Jordan Phillips and Tim Settle Jr.) combined to play 771 snaps for the Bills’ defense in 2023 per Pro Football Reference (36.57% and 35.35% respective), and the team may not feel like Austin Johnson and DeShawn Williams move the needle forward on those 771 snaps as much as they’d like.

If Jer’Zhan (Johnny) Newton from Illinois or Byron Murphy out of Texas is there at 28, both of them are likely “run to the podium” values for the Bills, but with both projected to be drafted higher and a defensive tackle not sticking out as great value at exactly 28, this may be a position that’s most likely in play if Buffalo trades down and potentially targets a versatile inside/outside player like Ruke Orhorhoro from Clemson or Darius Robinson from Missouri.

Offensive Tackle (+400, $100 Bruce Bucks bet nets you a pretend payout of $400)

The Bills re-signed left tackle Dion Dawkins, who put pen to paper after sending a scare through the entire fan base right at the beginning of the NFL’s free agency period. But right tackle Spencer Brown is entering the final year of his rookie contract and given his bounce-back year in 2023, could be looking at a $12 million average annual value contract or more after Miami Dolphins tackle Austin Jackson signed a three-year, $36 million deal with Buffalo’s AFC East competition. The team may decide they’d rather have a highly drafted player on the roster when and if Brown departs while taking advantage of a strong offensive tackle class in 2024.

Alabama’s JC Latham is a natural right tackle who’d be good value at 28 overall, and could see to it that Buffalo has bookend tackles under contract for the next few years.

Cornerback (+450, $100 Bruce Bucks nets you a pretend payout of $450)

Christian Benford may be the NFL’s best-kept secret at cornerback for the Bills, but Rasul Douglas is about to turn 30 in August and the Bills decided not to extend him after he made an immediate impact to the defense following their addition of him at the trade deadline, electing instead to restructure his deal. That means the contractual cliffs for both Douglas and Benford are coming up at the same time, and the Bills may choose to get ahead of it by drafting a cornerback early in 2024. In addition, they lost veteran Dane Jackson as an unrestricted free agent and haven’t replaced him, so there’s a bodies need to consider here as well as a talent/age cliff discussion.

Kool-Aid McKinstry comes off the board in the 20s in many mock drafts and is the type of heady and versatile cornerback that the team has seen success utilizing.

Safety (+500, $100 Bruce Bucks nets you a pretend payout of $500)

I’m not sure there will be a safety there who’s the best value at 28 despite the Bills saying goodbye to both Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde this offseason, so this may be a scenario that only makes true sense with a trade back (which we’ve established is not something we should expect from Brandon Beane), hence its location on this list.

Iowa’s Cooper DeJean may fall if the NFL thinks of him too much as a “tweener” and can’t decide whether to play him at corner or safety, but Maryland’s Tyler Nubin makes the most sense as a player who could be a target in the event of a trade back by Buffalo.

Quarterback (+8400. $100 Bruce Bucks nets you a pretend payout of $8,400)

Buster Douglas was a +4200 underdog against Mike Tyson when he unbelievably knocked out Tyson in 1990.

It feels like at least twice as unlikely the Bills take a quarterback high in the 2024 NFL Draft.

…and that’s the way the cookie crumbles. I’m Bruce Nolan with Buffalo Rumblings. You can find me on Twitter and Instagram @BruceExclusive and look for new episodes of “The Bruce Exclusive” every Thursday on the Buffalo Rumblings podcast network!