Opposing QB Stat Tracker: Week 14

Thanks to the nflFastR project and NFL NextGen Stats for the timely sources of data.

For those of you new to this, I will publish key QB stats each week judging how well the Colts passing game performed. Yes, O-Line, receivers, and play-calling impact these numbers but they are primarily QB measures. I will probably modify the charts throughout the season. Commentary will be brief but feel free to let me know in the comments that stats aren’t everything. (click charts for larger view)

NOTE: All references to rankings are of the top 32 QBs by attempts through current week.

DASHBOARD

Here is what Mac Jones has looked like on the season.

He has faced higher than average passing defenses (10th opd) on a run-first team (27th ed%) that has been very successful on the ground (8th arsr). He gets rid of the ball very quickly (29th ttt), which helps manage opponent pressure (26th pr%), but that is at the cost of below average passing length (21st aDOT).

His receivers primarily catch the shorter passes (22nd ay/c) and accumulate average yac (16th yac, 14th yacoe), but they don’t have much success downfield (21st 20+e). However, Jones’ accuracy is very good (4th cpoe), which turns those short passes into decent yards per attempt (12th 7.5).

His sack rate is high relative to the amount of pressure he sees (18th sk%, 26th pr%), but it is still below league average. He doesn’t scramble much (25th scr%), opting to throw the ball away instead (18th ta%) . However, his overall reactions to pressure dilutes his yards per attempt and so his net yardage efficiency is just average (17th ny/d).

His turnover rate is below average (20th to%), but so his is TD rate (19th td%). He makes up for that a bit, by being OK at getting first downs (15th 1st%). Combined with his average yardage, that results in an overall efficiency and success rate that is slightly better than the average QB (14th psr, 15th epa/d).

HOW WELL?

He has similar efficiency to Carson Wentz, but his success rate is higher. This implies that Jones does not rely as much as Wentz on explosive plays for efficiency.

I hesitate to include week 13 in these next charts as Jones had only 3 passing attempts all game. I wonder if NE fans were yelling at Belichick to throw the damn ball?

Overall, Jones has been trending better throughout the year but has been highly volatile resulting in overall average numbers. Why does that sound familiar?

HOW FAR?

His passing depth has been declining since early in the season.

TO WHO?

He spread out his passes well in week 13 . . . all 3 of them. When Jones is actually passing the ball, Jakobi Meyers receives the most targets by far, but Kendrick Bourne gets almost the same yards.

Jones’ range on TD passes isn’t anything unusual.

HOW ACCURATE?

This is where he shines. Even accounting for the shorter pass distance, his accuracy has been very good.

HOW FAST?

Much like a previous Belichick QB, Jones wastes no time in getting rid of the ball.

TO WHERE?

This reinforces the lack of success downfield. He is about average in mid-range throws and the team executes screens well.

GLOSSARY

drop-back: Attempts + Sacks + Scrambles + accepted Defensive Pass Interference (DPI)

opd: The epa/d given up by opponent defenses in all games other than the QB/team being measured

ed%: The % of plays on early downs(2) that are QB drop-backs.

wrsr: The % of designed carries that earn more epa than the median league value in similar game situations (down, distance, field position etc.) adjusted for 4th qtr game script and weighted by result (TD, first down, other)

ttt: The average time from snap to the point when a QB throws.

pr%: The % of drop-backs where the QB was pressured (per Pro Football Focus)

adot: The average air yards thrown per attempt.

20+: The % of attempts >+ 20 air yards

ay/c: The distance between the line of scrimmage to the point of reception.

cpoe: Completion % over an expected amount based on game situation (air yards, down, distance, field position etc.)

yac: The distance between point of reception and the spot of the football at the end of the play.

yacoe: The yac over the league average yac for a given game situation (yards thrown, down, distance, field position etc.)

ypa: Yards per Attempt

aa%: The % of drop-backs that result in a throw-away, sack or scramble.

ta%: Throw-Aways as a percentage of drop-backs

scr%: Scrambles as a percentage of drop-backs

sk%: Sacks as a percentage of drop-backs

to%: Interceptions and QB lost fumbles as a percentage of drop-backs

ny/d: Net Yards per drop-back. (Passing Yards – Sack Yards + Scramble Yards ) / (Att + Sacks + Scrambles)

1st%: Passing first downs as a percentage of drop-backs

td%: Touchdown as a percentage of drop-backs

rze: Expected Points Added per drop-back in the red zone

orze: Expected Points Added per drop-back outside of the red zone

20+e: Expected Points Added per drop-back on passes >=20 air yards

psr: The % of drop-backs that have epa> 0

epa/d: Expected Points Added per drop-back.