Panthers No. 1 in DVOA ratings for first time in franchise history

Carolina Panthers fans, particularly back in 2015, may have thought this whole “DVOA” thing was a farcical stat made up by Seattle Seahawks fans just to make their team look good. Maybe you guys will start to come around to it now, though.

For the first time, the Panthers’ impressive 2-0 start has them atop the weekly DVOA ratings by Football Outsiders. The closest they’ve ever previously been was when they peaked at No. 2 in 1996 and No. 3 in 2015.

If you’re not familiar, DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) is an advanced statistic that quantifies the totality of a performance. This measure considers and calculates a multitude of factors in determining the overall effectiveness of each team.

In Football Outsiders’ words, DVOA “breaks down every single play of the NFL season to see how much success offensive players achieved in each specific situation compared to the league average in that situation, adjusted for the strength of the opponent.”

And also in Football Outsiders’ words . . .

“That’s [the defense] the unit that’s powering the Panthers so far this season,” writes Aaron Schatz, the creator of DVOA. “Carolina has -52.0% defensive DVOA through two games. The Panthers rank No. 1 in both adjusted line yards and adjusted sack rate. This is quite the unexpected improvement, as the Panthers ranked 24th in defensive DVOA a year ago.”

Schatz is right. While many close to the team were prepared for a clear step up in 2021, perhaps not many of them thought they’d this good this quickly.

Carolina’s defense, in some more normal stats, has allowed the fewest points per game (10.5), the fewest yards per game (190.0), the fewest first downs (22), the fewest yards per rush (2.7) and the lowest third-down conversion rate (25 percent).

They’ll have a decent chance at shining up those numbers even more, including that weird one this post is about, this Thursday night against rookie quarterback Davis Mills and the Houston Texans.