Pewter Preview Week 1: Bucs at Vikings

The Bucs open the 2023 regular season Sunday afternoon in Minnesota, taking on the Vikings to get a new era underway. Tampa Bay had a busy offseason, with the retirement of Tom Brady, a change in offensive coordinator, a training camp quarterback competition and a recent ultimatum laid out by Mike Evans’ agent dominating headlines. But now it’s time for real football as Todd Bowles and his team look to get started on their quest toward extending the NFC’s longest active playoff streak to four years.

The Last Time…

The last time the Bucs and Vikings met was in 2020, with Tampa Bay coming away with a 26-14 victory at Raymond James Stadium. It was the first win of the Bucs’ eight-game winning streak that culminated with their victory over the Chiefs in Super Bowl LV.

It was a big afternoon for Todd Bowles’ defense, which racked up six sacks and 12 quarterback hits. That, combined with a couple of Tom Brady touchdown passes and three missed field goals by Minnesota kicker Dan Bailey, helped Tampa Bay coast to a much-needed victory coming off its bye week.

All time, the Vikings lead the series 33-23, though the Bucs have won seven of the last 10. This will only be Tampa Bay’s second trip to U.S. Bank Stadium, as the venue opened in 2016.

How The Bucs And Vikings Are Trending

Tampa Bay is ushering in something of a new era in 2023. While Todd Bowles heads into his second year as the team’s head coach, this will be the first year post-Brady, plus the team has some new assistant coaches and a whole lot of youth and inexperience throughout the roster. After going 8-9 and crashing out of the playoffs at home in the NFC Wild Card round with Brady, the Bucs aren’t a hot pick to do much this season without him. But in a downtrodden NFC South, it’s hard to rule Tampa Bay out from three-peating as division champions.

The Vikings are in a different spot. They went 13-4 last year, but the fact that 11 of their wins were by one score coupled with their first-round playoff exit – also at home – means there are some questions about Kevin O’Connell’s team heading into 2023. Still, led by Kirk Cousins and Justin Jefferson, Minnesota is still bound to be the favorite in the NFC North.

What Might Decide This Bucs-Vikings Matchup?

Bucs RB Rachaad White – Photo by: USA Today

There’s actually an interesting parallel between the Bucs and Vikings in terms of their respective run games — and their respective run defenses. Tampa Bay had the league’s worst rushing offense last year, and righting that wrong is going to be a big focus of the new season.

With his wide zone run scheme, Dave Canales is committed to helping the Bucs run the ball more effectively this year. It’ll be second-year running back Rachaad White leading the way for the backfield, with undrafted rookie Sean Tucker also primed to make an impact as Tampa Bay’s RB2.

The Vikings’ run defense was a problem last year, as it allowed 123.1 yards per game. Minnesota has a new defensive coordinator in Brian Flores, and his unit will be relying on some young and unproven players this year. Gone is veteran cornerback Patrick Peterson, as well as linebacker Eric Kendricks — the team’s leading tackler from a year ago. The Bucs’ revamped rushing attack will be going up against a retooled Minnesota defense that will be looking to improve against the run in 2023.

Vikings RB Alexander Mattison Photo by: USA Today

On the flip side, the Vikings’ rushing attack will be extremely different this year. They released four-time 1,000-yard rusher Dalvin Cook this offseason, and it’ll be up to Alexander Mattison to fill his shoes. Mattison has looked good in a reserve role in the past, but he’s never topped 500 yards in a season due to his limited workload. Can he make Minnesota’s backfield transition seamless?

At one time, the calling card for Tampa Bay’s defense under Todd Bowles was how well it defended the run. That changed in 2022. With some personnel changes that were geared more toward rushing the passer, the Bucs were 15th against the run last year. That’s not awful, but it’s a far cry from being No. 3 in 2021, No. 1 in 2020 and No. 1 in 2019.

Bowles and his defensive players have talked all offseason about getting back to their roots and stopping the run, and doing so on Sunday will be important. With both offenses having new-look run games and both defenses intent on improving against the run in 2023, there’s a chance that Sunday’s game could be decided by how quickly each side shows the improvements they’ve been building toward all offseason.

Key Players To Watch

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: USA Today

For the Bucs, all eyes will be on Baker Mayfield, who will be making his regular season debut with the team under center. After being shipped from Cleveland to Carolina ahead of last season, the 2018 No. 1 overall pick ended last season in Los Angeles with the Rams. Now with yet another new team, he’s looking to revive his career under new Tampa Bay offensive coordinator Dave Canales.

Defensively for Tampa Bay, the debut of Ryan Neal promises to be exciting. Pro Football Focus’ top-graded safety of 2022, Neal will be playing alongside Antoine Winfield Jr. and is a major threat to blitz on any given down. The 6-foot-3, 200-pounder had a great preseason and should be a big part of Todd Bowles’ defense in 2023. Expect Neal to be heavily involved in stuffing the game. Bowles likes to blitz players out of the slot quite a bit, and Neal will be attacking the line of scrimmage either on run blitzes or coming after Kirk Cousins.

On the Minnesota offense, Justin Jefferson is certainly the player to keep an eye on. The former LSU star been the NFL’s top wide receiver over the last few years, having hit the 1,400-yard mark in each of his first three seasons. He’s coming off a career year, which saw him catch 128 passes for 1,809 yards and eight touchdowns. How Tampa Bay elects to deal with Jefferson will be one of the biggest deciders of Sunday’s game.

Harrison Smith is one of the top playmakers on the Vikings defense, manning the back end of Brian Flores’ defense. The veteran safety posted 85 tackles (third-most on the team) in 2022 while tying for the team lead in interceptions with five. The No. 97 player in NFL Network’s Top 100 Players of 2023 has the potential to disrupt Tampa Bay’s new-look offense as it looks to get off to a good start.

Bucs at Vikings Game Information

When: Sunday, Sept. 10
Where: U.S. Bank Stadium (Minneapolis, MN)
Kickoff: 1:00 p.m. ET
TV: CBS – Andrew Catalon (Play by Play), Tiki Barber (Analyst), Matt Ryan (Analyst), AJ Ross (Reporter)
Bucs Radio: 98Rock – Gene Deckerhoff (Play by Play), Dave Moore (Color), T.J. Rives (Reporter)
Spanish Radio: 96.1 Caliente – Carlos Bohorquez (Play by Play), Martín Gramática (Analyst)