Pewter Report’s 2023 7-Round Bucs Mock Draft 3.0

The Bucs have started to make some personnel moves since Pewter Report’s second 2023 7-Round Bucs Mock Draft. With 22 unrestricted free agents and looming salary cap troubles, Tampa Bay currently has the worst cap situation in the league (over by $58,261,621 per OverTheCap.com), but will need to come into cap compliance by the start of free agency on Wednesday, March 15.

The Bucs – and Pewter Report – have returned from the 2023 NFL Scouting Combine in Indianapolis. Let’s look at Tampa Bay’s team needs before deciding which players Pewter Report thinks general manager Jason Licht and head coach Todd Bowles will select in 2023.

Bucs’ Personnel Needs

Quarterback

Tom Brady retired and former second-round pick Kyle Trask is the only quarterback under contract. But entering his third season, Trask has been slow to develop and will now begin learning a second system under new coordinator Dave Canales, which is supposed to be very QB-friendly. Just because this is the Bucs’ top need doesn’t mean they’ll draft a quarterback in the first round – or at all – as the team will turn to free agency for a QB like Jacoby Brissett, Baker Mayfield or Drew Lock to compete with Trask.

Safety

Antoine Winfield Jr. and Nolan Turner are the only safeties currently under contract. Mike Edwards, Logan Ryan and Keanu Neal are unrestricted free agents. It’s likely one or two of those veterans return. The Bucs could certainly draft another safety and nearly selected Georgia’s Lewis Cine with their first pick in the 2022 NFL Draft a year ago. This year’s draft class has a number of quality safeties.

Offensive Tackle

The Bucs are cutting left tackle Donovan Smith, who is coming off his worst season and turns 30 this year. Smith was entering a contract year and Tampa Bay will save just under $10 million by releasing him. He couldn’t be trusted after 12 penalties and six sacks surrendered in 2022. Top reserve Josh Wells is also a free agent and is coming off a torn patellar tendon and won’t be healthy until after the start of the 2023 season. So, tackle becomes a top need – even if the Bucs plan to move Tristan Wirfs to left tackle and insert Luke Goedeke at right tackle, which is where he played in college. The 2023 draft has a decent number of quality tackles.

Cornerback

Jamel Dean and Sean Murphy-Bunting are slated to be free agents, and Dean could be the top cornerback available in March. It will be tough for the Bucs to have two cornerbacks making a combined $28 million or more per year, as the team just re-signed Carlton Davis III last year to a three-year deal worth just over $14 million per season. If Dean returns, cornerback becomes less of a need because the team is still high on Zyon McCollum, a fifth-round pick from last year. This year’s draft class is very deep at cornerback.

Edge Rusher

Tampa Bay’s two starters – Shaquil Barrett and Joe Tryon-Shoyinka – return in 2023. But Barrett will turn 30 and is coming off a torn Achilles. Anthony Nelson, Carl Nassib and Genard Avery are all unrestricted free agents, and the Bucs would like to have at least two of them return. But the Bucs are worried that Tryon-Shoyinka might not live up to his first-round billing and will likely want to add another edge rusher. The 2023 NFL Draft is quite deep at Edge.

Interior Defensive Line

Tampa Bay has two starters under contract in 2023 in Vita Vea and Logan Hall, who was last year’s top pick. Hall was a reserve last year and needs to add about 20 pounds of muscle and bulk in order to be ready to start this season. But there are a host of other veterans who are slated for free agency, including Akiem Hicks, Will Gholston, Rakeem Nunez-Roches, Pat O’Connor and Deadrin Senat. Some, but not all of those veterans will return. How high of a need defensive line is in this year’s draft will be predicated on how many veterans return. There are some decent defensive tackles, but it’s not a deep draft at the position.

Tight End

Bucs TE Cade Otton – Photo by: USA Today

The Bucs are moving on from veteran Cam Brate, who turns 32 this summer, in order to save $2 million in cap room. Seldom-used veteran Kyle Rudolph is a free agent and won’t return. Tampa Bay drafted two tight ends last year in Cade Otton and Ko Kieft, but will likely have to add two more this year. One could come in a very deep and talented draft at the tight end position.

Linebacker

Lavonte David will be an unrestricted free agent at age 33. The Bucs would like to re-sign him, but it will have to be for less than the $12.5 million he made last year. If David, who was the Bucs’ best and most consistent defender in 2022, doesn’t return, then linebacker becomes a huge need in Tampa Bay. K.J. Britt, J.J. Russell and Ulysses Gilbert III are special teamers and reserves, and none of them have the athleticism and instincts to start and replace David. There are a few good linebackers in this draft class, but it’s not deep.

Running Back

The Bucs are cutting Leonard Fournette, who turns 28 this year, to save over $3 million this offseason. Giovani Bernard is a free agent and won’t be back. That leaves just Rachaad White, who was in last year’s Pewter Report Bucs mock draft, and Ke’Shawn Vaughn on the roster. Look for the Bucs to add another running back with speed in April, as there are a fair amount of good runners in this year’s draft.

Wide Receiver

Mike Evans turns 30 in August and is entering a contract year, while Chris Godwin continues his road back from a torn ACL at the end of the 2021 season. Both combined for just nine touchdowns last year after totaling 19 together in 2021. Russell Gage signed a three-year, $30 million deal last year, but was a huge disappointment, averaging a pedestrian 8.4 yards per catch. The Bucs might move on from Gage this offseason, and if they do, receiver becomes a huge need as Deven Thompkins, an undrafted free agent, would be the current No. 3. Julio Jones, Breshad Perriman and Scotty Miller are free agents and likely won’t return. This is not a deep draft at receiver.

Bucs’ 2023 NFL Draft Picks

The Bucs currently have seven picks in the 2023 NFL Draft. Tampa Bay traded its fourth-round pick to Jacksonville last year to trade up to select McCollum in the fifth round. The Bucs turned a seventh-rounder into a sixth-rounder by sending linebacker Grant Stuard to Indianapolis in August of 2022. Tampa Bay also gets the New York Jets’ seventh-round pick from the 2020 trade for defensive tackle Steve McLendon.

The Bucs are expected to receive two additional compensatory picks – a fifth-rounder and a seventh-rounder – from the league later this spring, but Pewter Report has included them into this third edition of the Bucs Mock Draft.

Pewter Report’s 2023 7-Round Bucs Mock Draft 3.0 is presented by CELSIUS, the official energy drink of Pewter Report. Try the new Fantasy Vibe flavor, which is a refreshing mix of mandarin orange and marshmallow, and the new crisp Lemon Lime. To find CELSIUS near you, visit CELSIUS.com and click on the store locator. To purchase CELSIUS online visit Amazon.com and click on the subscribe and save feature to save money and have CELSIUS shipped right to your door.

2023 7-Round Bucs Mock Draft 3.0

Round 1: Alabama S Brian Branch
Junior • 6-0, 190

Sometimes, NFL teams’ general managers, scouts and coaches aren’t disappointed with slow 40-times from great players when the tape suggests otherwise. That’s because there is a greater chance that player could slide down the draft board a little, as opposed to rise up the draft board with a blazing 40-time.

Such is the case with Alabama safety Brian Branch, who ran a slightly disappointing 4.57 at the NFL Scouting Combine. Compare that with Bucs safety Antoine Winfield Jr., who ran a 4.45, and Winfield is a tenth of a second faster. Winfield’s 10-yard split was 1.53, yet Branch’s wasn’t far behind at 1.57. Branch is fast enough to play in the NFL, evidenced by a 68-yard punt return for a touchdown this year against Louisiana-Monroe.

Branch’s Career Defensive Stats
2020: 27 tackles, 0.5 TFL, 7 PBUs, INT
2021: 55 tackles, 5 TFLs, 9 PBUs, sack, FR
2022: 90 tackles, 14 TFLs, 7 PBUs, 2 INTs, 3 sacks

The tape shows that Branch is one hell of a football player. He’s incredibly intelligent and would be a perfect fit in a Todd Bowles’ meeting room. Bowles wants to move Winfield out of the slot and back to free safety, where he can get more interceptions roaming the secondary.

Branch played more in the slot at Alabama with 569 snaps there last year and 411 in the slot the year before, compared to 136 snaps in the box and 25 deep in 2022 and 123 snaps in the box and 49 deep in 2021. The Crimson Tide star is one of the best tacklers in the draft with just four missed tackles in his entire three-year career.

Round 2: Iowa TE Sam LaPorta
Senior • 6-3, 245

With Cam Brate’s release and Tampa Bay moving on from free agent Kyle Rudolph, the Bucs could use another tight end. This year’s draft class is super talented and super deep, so why not take advantage of it? Cade Otton, last year’s fourth-round pick, is a solid No. 2 tight end with the potential to be a starter. But Otton is not the athlete that LaPorta is.

LaPorta has the potential to be a Travis Kelce/George Kittle-type receiving tight end in Tampa Bay. He crushed the athletic drills at the Combine, posting a 4.59 time in the 40-yard dash, which was the third-fastest time in Indianapolis.

LaPorta’s Career Receiving Stats
2019: 15 catches, 188 yards, 12.5 avg.
2020: 27 catches, 271 yards, 10 avg., TD
2021: 53 catches, 670 yards, 12.6 avg., 3 TDs
2022: 58 catches, 657 yards, 11.3 avg., TD

LaPorta posted back-to-back years with 50 catches and 650 yards receiving while averaging 11.5 yards per catch. He’s an above-average blocker and would team with Otton to make a nice 1-2 punch in the Bucs’ passing game out of 12 personnel sets.

Round 3: Kansas State CB Julius Brents
Senior • 6-3, 195

Brents is a prototypical Todd Bowles cornerback at 6-foot-3, 195 pounds. He’s physical and highly competitive, and he had the longest wingspan in Combine history at the cornerback position at nearly 83 inches. His stock is on the rise after a very athletic testing session at the Combine, where he had a 41.5-inch vertical, an 11’6” broad jump and a 3-cone time of 6.63, which was the fastest of all defensive backs.

On the field, Brents is an up-and-comer, evidenced by career highs in pass breakups (four) and interceptions (four) last year. None were bigger than his end zone INT against TCU’s Quentin Johnston in K-State’s Big XII Championship win.

Brents’ Career Defensive Stats
2019: 13 tackles, 3 PBUs, INT (Iowa)
2020: 4 tackles, PBU (Iowa)
2021: 49 tackles, 3 TFLs, 2 PBUs, INT
2022: 45 tackles, 3.5 TFLs, 4 PBUs, 4 INTs, FF

Brents, who shined at the Senior Bowl, could step in as a starter and replace Jamel Dean, who is expected to depart in free agency. The Bucs just don’t have the salary cap room to pay two cornerbacks over $14 million per year after signing Carlton Davis III to a long-term extension last year.

Round 5: Louisville OLB YaYa Diaby
Senior • 6-3, 263

Diaby’s stock is on the rise from a good showing at the Senior Bowl in Mobile. After spending his time at Louisville as an edge rusher and a 4i defensive lineman, Diaby would bring the versatility to be an outside linebacker and an inside rusher in nickel defense.

The Cardinals’ second-leading sacker turned heads at the Combine after running a 4.51 with a dazzling 1.56 10-yard split. Diaby had a breakout season with 14 tackles for loss and nine sacks last year.

Diaby’s Career Defensive Stats
2018: 19 tackles, 4 TFLs, 2 sacks (Georgia Military Academy)
2019: 58 tackles, 16 TFLs, 5 sacks (Georgia Military Academy)
2020: 18 tackles, 2.5 TFLs
2021: 39 tackles, 3 TFLs, 1.5 sacks
2022: 37 tackles, 14 TFLs, 9 sacks, 2 PBUs, 2 FRs

He’s not ready to be an every-down starter yet because he’s still raw, but Diaby could replace Anthony Nelson and/or Carl Nassib and give the Bucs a younger, cheaper and more athletic pass rusher off the bench. And Diaby could contribute on special teams coverage units right away.

Round 5: Indiana LB Cam Jones (Expected compensatory pick)
Senior • 6-1, 226

Lavonte David may or may not be re-signed and the Bucs need another starting-caliber linebacker. As a four-year starter, Indiana’s Cam Jones is as experienced as they come. Jones missed all but five games last year due to a foot injury, and the recovery from that injury might have affected his 40 time at the Combine. His 4.69 time was the slowest of all linebackers in Indianapolis.

Jones, who had a formal interview with the Bucs, has a high football I.Q., is assignment sound and only missed four tackles last year. He proved he can be a do-it-all linebacker for the Hooisers, evidenced by seven career sacks, eight pass breakups and a pair of interceptions in his career.

Jones’ Career Defensive Stats
2018: 20 tackles, PBU, INT, FF, FR
2019: 35 tackles, 4.5 TFLs, 2 sacks, 2 PBUs, INT, FF, TD
2020: 35 tackles, 4 TFLs, 3 sacks, 3 PBUs
2021: 60 tackles, 2 TFLs, sack, 2 PBUs
2022: 54 tackles, 3 TFLs, sack, PBU, FF, FR

Jones will have another chance to run the 40 at his pro day. If it’s not in the 4.5-range, the Bucs may pass on him for a faster, more athletic linebacker prospect. But if he does run a faster 40-time that better resembles his play speed, he could be in play.

Round 6: East Carolina RB Keaton Mitchell
Redshirt Sophomore • 5-8, 179

The Bucs are looking for angry runners, but already have a couple on the roster in starter Rachaad White and Ke’Shawn Vaughn, who is entering a contract year. What Tampa Bay needs is an injection of speed on offense, and East Carolina’s Keaton Mitchell can bring it. His 4.37 in the 40-yard dash was the third-fastest 40-time in Indy at the running back position.

Despite his small stature, Mitchell is one of the toughest runners in this year’s draft class. Bucs fans might be reminded of Warrick Dunn when watching Mitchell run. He’s not quite as big as Dunn (5-9, 187) was, but he’s certainly faster. Mitchell’s 31 runs of 15 yards or more was the most in college football last year.

Mitchell’s Career Rushing Stats
2020: 88 carries, 443 yards, 5.0 avg., 2 TDs
2021: 174 carries, 1,132 yards, 6.5 avg., 9 TDs
2022: 201 carries, 1,452 yards, 7.2 avg., 14 TDs

Mitchell’s Career Receiving Stats
2020: 11 catches, 75 yards, 6.8 avg., TD
2021: 22 catches, 253 yards, 11.5 avg., TD
2022: 27 catches, 252 yards, 9.3 avg., TD

Pro Football Focus gave Mitchell an 89.1 overall grade last year after he ran for 1,452 yards and 14 touchdowns while averaging 7.2 yards per carry. Mitchell thrived in East Carolina’s outside zone scheme, where he earned a 93.4 grade. He had 724 yards after contact and his 75 forced missed tackles were the 13th-most in the nation last year.

Mitchell is also a great receiver and finished his Pirates career with 60 catches for 580 yards and three touchdowns. He is effective on screens as well as wheel and angle routes out of the backfield. Mitchell met with running backs coach Skip Peete at the Combine.

Round 7: Oregon OT T.J. Bass
Senior • 6-4, 317

The Bucs address offensive line later than they would like, but T.J. Bass is a versatile lineman who played 879 snaps at left tackle last year and split time between left tackle (500) and left guard (431) in 2021.

A three-year starter, Bass has positional versatility and could be an ideal replacement for former Bucs swing tackle Josh Wells, who suffered a severe knee injury on Christmas in the win at Arizona. Wells, who is a free agent, won’t be ready until midseason in 2023, so the Bucs will need a new swing tackle candidate.

Bass, who had two informal meetings with the Bucs (scouts and position coaches) at the NFL Scouting Combine, brings toughness and physicality to the table. He’s a mauler in the run game and posted Pro Football Focus blocking grades of 78.2 (2022) and 86 (2021) over the last two seasons.

Round 7: Florida WR Justin Shorter (Expected compensatory pick)
Senior • 6-4, 229

The Bucs finish the draft by selecting Florida receiver Justin Shorter, who played with Kyle Trask in 2020. At 6-foot-4, 229 pounds, there isn’t anything short about Shorter, who ran an impressive 4.55 at that size.

Shorter is a developmental receiver who didn’t have the most accurate quarterbacks throwing him the ball over the last two years in Emory Jones and Anthony Richardson. But he did average 19.9 yards per catch his final year at Florida and won six contested catches as a deep threat.

Shorter’s Career Receiving Stats
2018: 3 catches, 20 yards, 6.7 avg. (Penn State)
2019: 12 catches, 137 yards, 11.4 avg. (Penn State)
2020: 25 catches, 268 yards, 10.7 avg., 3 TDs
2021: 41 catches, 550 yards, 13.4 avg., 3 TDs
2022: 29 catches, 577 yards, 19.9 avg., 2 TDs

Shorter brings a bigger body to Tampa Bay’s receiving corps and he can learn from one of the best big receivers in Mike Evans while he develops. With his size-speed ratio, Shorter can also be a factor on special teams coverage units as a rookie.

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