PFF breaks down the best, worst case scenarios for the Jags

While he inherited a roster that registered one-win, Urban Meyer believes he can turn the Jacksonville Jaguars around immediately. Of course, all the nation’s NFL analysts seem to disagree with him on that, mostly slotting the Jags around five wins.

However, the crew at Pro Football Focus took a different approach by projecting the best and worst-case scenarios for the Jags (and NFL in general). Unsurprisingly, both scenarios were a lot better than last season’s results, which marked the worst season in Jags history.

With an additional game coming in the regular season, PFF had the Jags registering a 5-12 record for their worst-case scenario. This was mostly attributed to a scenario where Trevor Lawrence looked average due to the offensive line struggling, which is a concern PFF has long had.

How they get there: Trevor Lawrence looks more like a typical rookie quarterback than the “generational” prospect he was billed as coming out of Clemson. Part of that stems from an offensive line that struggles to provide clean pockets for him. Cam Robinson (61.7 PFF grade in 2020) and Jawaan Taylor (56.5) don’t show the signs of improvement that Jacksonville is hoping for at tackle in 2021. 

Meanwhile, the offseason additions of Shaquill Griffin, Rayshawn Jenkins, Tyson Campbell and Andre Cisco in the secondary aren’t as impactful as the investment in those players would suggest. 

As for the best-case scenario, the Jags were slotted with an 11-6 record, which PFF felt would be a slim possibility if their skill weapons play to their potential and their young pass-rushers stepped up.

How they get there: The above-average offense Jacksonville flashed early in the 2020 season is back with Lawrence, Marvin Jones Jr. and Travis Etienne added to the mix. Laviska Shenault Jr. is much more than a “gadget” receiver in his second season out of Colorado after seeing an average depth of target of just 6.6 yards downfield as a rookie. 

New defensive coordinator Joe Cullen is able to bring some elements from Baltimore’s defense with him to Jacksonville, as well. That, along with improvement from second-year edge rusher K’Lavon Chaisson, keeps the Jaguars from having one of the league’s worst defenses again in 2021. 

Simply put, Jags fans would be ecstatic about 11 wins, although it seems very unlikely at the moment. That would even best their 2017 run where they almost made the Super Bowl and would match the win totals that got both the Tennessee Titans and Indianapolis Colts into the 2020 postseason.

Right now, especially with so much turnover, registering five to six wins feels more likely than getting 11. However, if the Jags’ defense is drastically better than 2020’s unit, and Lawrence has instant success as he did at Clemson, the team could shock people as they did in 2017.