PFF says Texans’ 6.0 win projection is ‘reasonable’

The Houston Texans have plenty of new aspects to their team, but it also means there are plenty of question marks.

The Texans have a rookie coach with DeMeco Ryans, new offensive coordinator in Bobby Slowik, rookie first-round quarterback in C.J. Stroud, and a retooled roster that is a meld of Ryans’ vision and young talent. While there is excitement, there is also trepidation.

According to Amelia Probst from Pro Football Focus, the Texans rank No. 31 in their power rankings and also are at a win total threshold that doubles 2022’s output.

The Texans simply don’t have enough weapons to support rookie QB C.J. Stroud. This receiving corps ranked 31st in EPA per play in 2022 (-0.165). The team has since traded away Brandin Cooks, and the additions of Robert Woods, Noah Brown and Tank Dell don’t figure to bring the production they need. On top of that, they also had the sixth-lowest-graded offensive line in the league (62.3) in 2022.

The Texans had the second-lowest-graded defense in 2022. For now, 6.0 projected wins seems reasonable.

While the Texans had a bottom-5 defense in terms of PFF’s grades a year ago, the scheme has changed. No longer will Houston run Lovie Smith’s Tampa 2, but a more attacking 4-3 front. Nevertheless the newness factor invites skepticism until the Texans can prove it.