PR Roundtable: Bucs 2023 Record Prediction

A new Pewter Report Roundtable debuts every Tuesday during the Bucs’ regular season. Each week, the Pewter Reporters tackle another tough question. This week’s prompt: What is your record prediction for the 2023 Bucs?

Scott Reynolds: Bucs Show Improvement With 9-8 Record

I already posted my Bucs season record prediction in last Friday’s SR’s Fab 5 column, along with the wins and losses forecast as I see it. For some reason, we in the media didn’t really realize this, but there was a pall cast on this team coming out of training camp last year.

A surprise 2-0 start with a pair of road wins at Dallas and at New Orleans kind of covered it up, but there was a dark cloud over Tampa Bay coming out of training camp and the preseason last year. Ryan Jensen’s season-ending injury deflated the offense a bit, and Tom Brady’s divorce served as a big distraction for the 45-year-old quarterback.

Fast forward to 2023 and Brady is gone, but the arrival of new offensive coordinator Dave Canales has energized the whole building at the team’s headquarters. Despite not having any play-calling experience, Canales paid his dues in Seattle for 13 years and is ready.

Canales has a believable quality about him, and will actually scheme his players into the open field instead of counting on Tampa Bay’s weapons to out-talent the competition down in and down out like Byron Leftwich asked of them last year. The bet here is that Baker Mayfield and Dave Canales improve the scoring from 18 points per game last year to 21 points per game this year.

On defense, Todd Bowles’ defense should feast on a bunch of rookie and less-experienced quarterbacks this year. The Bucs defense is thin on experienced depth, especially in the secondary, which is concerning. But Bowles is hoping that more speed on defense will result in more tackles for loss in the backfield to help the run defense rebound, in addition to more pressure on the quarterback. A supposedly easier schedule – featuring the AFC South as well as the NFC South – should help Tampa Bay get one more win this year than a year ago in a transition season in the post-Brady era.

Matt Matera: Bucs Reach The Same Record Of 8-9

In understanding the complexion of the 2023 Tampa Bay Buccaneers, you have to look at all the variables surrounding this team. It’s easy for someone with an outside perspective to say that the change at quarterback for the Bucs is going to doom them from the start. I get the notion, but you have to factor in many other parameters. While going from Tom Brady to Baker Mayfield is a downgrade, adding Dave Canales as offensive coordinator is a major upgrade. Canales brings an upbeat personality and a new offense that brings motion, favorable routes and unpredictability, which is exactly what Tampa Bay needs.

Bucs ILB Devin White and OLB Shaq Barrett – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

The key in all of this season for the Bucs, though, is going to be the defense. On every level, you still have defensive players from a 2020 Super Bowl winning team. The Bucs found a steal in free agency with Ryan Neal at safety and there’s a lot of excitement about draft picks Calijah Kancey and YaYa Diaby. This defense, which missed Shaq Barrett for nine games last season, still only allowed 21 points per game. And that was with a struggling offense. The Bucs’ defense should be even better rushing the passer this season, which can keep them in every game.

When breaking down the schedule, there are a number of opponents this year that fall in the Bucs’ favor. Let’s start with their division opponents in the NFC South. This division is up for grabs, and you would be hard-pressed to say that anyone is the clear-cut favorite.

I do believe that the Panthers are going to struggle heavily this season with Bryce Young, more because there’s not a lot of talent on offense outside of him. If the Bucs can sweep the Panthers and split with their other rivals, you’re already looking at 4-2. The Bucs also have the benefit of playing against the AFC South, which should have a lot of struggling teams in that division outside of the Jaguars.

Should Tampa Bay split with that division, that’s 6-4. The other division that the Bucs will face this season is the NFC North. Many people are high on teams such as the Lions and Bears, but there’s still questions to be answered about Chicago and how the Green Bay Packers will look with a new quarterback.

Going 2-2 finds the Bucs at 8-6 with three more games up for grabs. Saying that Tampa Bay can win double digit games this year would be a bit far fetched, but winning 8 games again is quite possible, and depending on how the division looks, it could get the Bucs back into the playoffs again.

Josh Queipo: Call Me Mr. Negative, As Bucs Drop To 7-10

Bucs WR Trey Palmer – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

If you were to promise me the Bucs would be able to play the season with the Madden injury sliders turned off, my prediction would look a good bit different (probably inverted at 10-7). But the truth is, the team will face injuries this year. They already have, with the squad currently dealing with the loss of both starting center Ryan Jensen and No. 3 wide receiver Russell Gage.

While backup center Robert Hainsey is a capable starter in his own right, there is still a drop-off from the play they paid for when they re-signed Jensen in 2022 and what Hainsey can provide. Similarly, there is a chance Trey Palmer, Deven Thompkins and Rakim Jarrett could out-produce what Gage would have likely given them. But that bet isn’t a better than 50% proposition.

If there are additional injuries to either the offensive line or receiver positions, the Bucs’ lack of depth will be exposed. Similarly, if the team has any starters go down in the secondary or at linebacker, the group it would field at that point would feature glaring holes. Those holes will cause the team to lose a couple of games others may be penciling in as wins (at Houston, at Indianapolis).

But all hope isn’t lost. I see Tampa Bay jumping out to a quick 2-0 start, which will give fans and analysts pause in writing them off throughout the season (especially in a down NFC South). With wins at home against Atlanta and Tennessee, I have the team 4-5 through Week 10. But two straight losses to San Francisco and Indianapolis ultimately sinks their season. Speaking of a down NFC South, I do see the Bucs going 4-2 in division, while struggling mightily outside of division.

Bailey Adams: Bucs One-Up Win Total From Last Year, Finish 9-8

Bucs OC Dave Canales – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

With Tom Brady retiring and a wave of veterans being released this offseason, the Bucs seem primed to take a step back in 2023. After all, the greatest quarterback of all time is no longer under center for them, and their once-proven offensive line suddenly has a second-year starter at center, a rookie right guard and a second-year player (who played left guard as a rookie) at right tackle. Even the proven commodity on the line, one-time All-Pro and two-time Pro Bowler Tristan Wirfs, is playing a new position.

Tampa Bay is betting on youth behind Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, and the depth chart features double-digit rookies, many of which are undrafted free agents. So, how could the Bucs possibly surpass their win total of eight from a year ago? The path involves improving their efficiency on offense and maintaining (if not improving upon) the standard they’ve set on defense under Todd Bowles.

The firing of Byron Leftwich and the subsequent hiring of former Seahawks quarterbacks coach Dave Canales should do a whole lot for Tampa Bay offensively. Even if it’s Baker Mayfield now taking snaps instead of Brady, the scheme that Canales has installed and the talent on offense — Evans, Godwin, Rachaad White, Cade Otton, Trey Palmer, etc. — could net more than the 18.4 points per game the team averaged last year.

Scoring more points and letting a talented defense – which features Vita Vea, Shaq Barrett, Lavonte David, Devin White, Carlton Davis, Jamel Dean, Antoine Winfield Jr. and Ryan Neal – take care of the rest could have Tampa Bay threatening to three-peat in a weak NFC South. The schedule should help the Bucs, too, as they’ll face a slate full of unproven quarterbacks.

Wins against Chicago, Houston, Tennessee and Indianapolis and a split of the Minnesota and Detroit games would put them at five wins. That means sweeping one divisional opponent (likely the Panthers or Falcons) and splitting with the other two gets them to 9-8. It may be lofty and glass-half-full of me, but I like their chances with that track.

Adam Slivon: Bucs Go On The Offensive, Battle To Finish 9-8

Bucs RB Rachaad White – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

With Tom Brady now living the retired life, many outsiders have the Bucs pegged for a losing season, one where they are competing for the No. 1 pick instead of a playoff spot. 

I don’t see that happening. 

With plenty of established talent and Pro-Bowl caliber players still on the roster, there is reason to believe the Bucs will actually end up with a better record than last season. Playing in a top-heavy NFC and a weak NFC South – along with facing at least a couple of rookie quarterbacks in the AFC South – will lead to a few extra Ws in the win-loss column.

There has been a different feeling surrounding the team this offseason, and much of that starts with the offense evolving and having a different feel under new offensive coordinator Dave Canales. For all of the struggles the offense had under Byron Leftwich, that side of the ball should be improved under the more creative and energetic Canales. After averaging just 18.4 points a game last season, that mark increasing by a couple of points will keep them in more games.

Quarterback Baker Mayfield has the weapons and supporting staff around him to get his career back on track, and having sophomore running back Rachaad White as the starter will surely inject life into a dead-last rushing attack. Two statistical predictions I have for them are Mayfield setting a career-high in passing yards (surpassing 3,827 in 2019) and White breaking the 1,000-yard threshold playing in a more efficient run scheme.

The offensive line does have its question marks with players moving positions (Tristan Wirfs, Luke Goedeke) and new players filling in (Matt Feiler, Cody Mauch), but it should at least be an average unit held up by Wirfs at left tackle. 

On paper, the defense looks to be a solid unit under head coach and defensive play caller Todd Bowles. The front seven is led by familiar faces Vita Vea, Devin White, and Lavonte David, and it will be buoyed by Shaq Barrett’s return. With the potential of Joe Tryon-Shoyinka, Logan Hall, and Calijah Kancey, the Bucs have put a lot of young eggs into the pass rush basket in hopes that they hatch.

In the secondary, cornerbacks Carlton Davis III and Jamel Dean are one of the better duos in the NFL. With Antoine Winfield Jr. returning to free safety and Ryan Neal being a potential free agent steal, the secondary looks primed to increase their turnover output. And overall, the floor for the defense is at least finishing in the top half leaguewide, with the potential to be in the top ten.

Taking a look at the schedule, my prediction is that the Bucs get off to an above .500 start at 3-2, with their lone losses being a road defeat to the Saints and succumbing to the juggernaut Eagles on Monday Night Football.

Although the Lions are a formidable foe in Week 6, there is no way the Bucs lose the Creamsicle game, right? 

After that game, the team falls back down to earth, losing four of their next five games to the Falcons, Bills, Titans, and 49ers, dropping to 4-6. They get back on track against the Colts and rip off three straight wins, but then lose to the Packers and Jaguars.

At 7-8 and needing to win out, they battle the Saints and Panthers to emerge victorious, finishing the season 9-8 and in the driver’s seat to threepeat as division champions. By all measures, that would mark a successful season and make them one of the biggest surprise teams in the league.