PR Roundtable: How Can Bucs Upset 49ers?

A new Pewter Report Roundtable debuts every Tuesday during the Bucs’ regular season. Each week, the Pewter Reporters tackle another tough question. This week’s prompt: How can the Bucs upset the 49ers in Week 11?

Scott Reynolds: Go For Broke, Takes Chances On Offense And Defense

In the old David vs. Goliath tale, we all remember how the young man slayed the giant, right? But notice how David used the slingshot first to fell Goliath then went over with his sword to finish the job. The reason? If he would have led with the sword, the giant would have stomped on him or kicked him and killed David.

The Bucs can’t play conventional football and beat the 49ers – a true Goliath in the NFC again this year. Even before the game starts the Bucs have to know the predictable runs up the middle won’t work against an incredibly stout 49ers defense. They are just a waste of a down. And that playing soft zone coverage on defense will only allow Brock Purdy to pick Todd Bowles’ unit apart one play at a time.

San Francisco is 6-3 and just dismantled Jacksonville, 34-3. The 4-5 Bucs need to attack this 49ers game by … well … attacking. That means using some unconventional tactics and be unpredictable. That might be hard for such a conservative coach like Bowles, but if he flips the script and goes unconventional he might have the element of surprise on his side.

Dave Canales has already rolled out a pass attempt from wide receiver Chris Godwin, a flea-flicker, screens and end-arounds through the first half of the season. Canales needs to bring that bag of tricks as well as some new ones – perhaps a halfback pass from Rachaad White to Trey Palmer? – when he boards the plane from San Francisco. Tampa Bay will need to get a cheap, unconventional touchdown or two in this game to have a chance to score more than the seven points they scored in last year’s 35-7 loss at Levi’s Stadium.

On defense, Todd Bowles needs to go for broke and empty both barrels in this West Coast gunfight. Blitz Brock Purdy the way Will Levis was blitzed last week. Hit Purdy, get strip-sacks or force him to make errant throws and interceptions. The Bucs must be careful because Christian McCaffrey is one of the best running backs on screen passes, so every blitz that Bowles dials up must have the flat defended, too.

Playing conservative football on Sunday will only get the Bucs beat by a better team. Most Tampa Bay fans should venture into Sunday’s game expecting a loss, so Bowles should have his team playing fast, loose and carefree with truly nothing to lose. Go for it on fourth downs and try to capture some momentum and get the 49ers on their heels. That’s the only way the Bucs have a chance on Sunday.

Matt Matera: Bucs Need A Big Special Teams Play

Bucs WR Deven Thompkins – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

In a game like this where the Bucs are fighting an uphill battle, they are going to need to steal a possession or two where Tampa Bay either keeps a drive going, sets itself up with great field position or just keeps San Francisco off the board. The Bucs might be overmatched on offense and defense, but sometimes it’s special teams that can be the great equalizer when teams pull off an upset.

The first person I’m looking at is returner Deven Thompkins. If we believe that Tampa Bay is going to struggle moving the ball against San Francisco’s defense, which I certainly do, then already setting up your team in field goal range with a big-time return can create a spark. Thompkins has averaged 5.9 yards per punt return with his longest going for 16 yards, but that was all the way back in Week 1.

Overall he’s been fine as a returner. I believe he has the potential to break a big return with his agility, and this would be the perfect week to do it.

Big special teams plays always seem to swing momentum in games. Tampa Bay might need to find more creative ways to keep its offense on the field. I know the Bucs had a disaster last season when they tried a fake punt against Cincinnati, but if the Bucs find themselves on a fourth-and-2 or fourth-and-3, would it be crazy to try another fake punt and keep your drive going? It’s all about stealing momentum and holding onto the ball. All I’m saying is – don’t rule it out.

The Bucs have been able to block some field goals and punts in recent years. The 49ers had special teams cost them a game earlier in October when kicker Jake Moody missed a game-winning field goal against the Browns, which was their first loss of the season. Even one opportunity for a missed kick or one that gets blocked can prove to be important.

Meanwhile, the Bucs have all the confidence in kicker Chase McLaughlin and punter Jake Camarda. The Bucs will need the ball to bounce their way in a game like this. Specials teams can help out the Bucs immensely by showing up big in San Francisco.

Bailey Adams: Forcing Brock Purdy Into Mistakes Is The Only Way

Bucs OLB Joe Tryon-Shoyinka and 49ers QB Brock Purdy – Photo by: USA Today

The Bucs have been at their best in 2023 when they’ve won the turnover battle, and doing so against the 49ers will be tough. But if they want to pull off an upset out west, that’s what they’ll need to do.

San Francisco is 100% the better team than Tampa Bay. The ‘Niners just ended a three-game losing streak on Sunday with a resounding 34-3 victory over the Jaguars. Even during their losing streak, they were just on the wrong side of some close ones. They lost 19-17 to the Browns, 22-17 to the Vikings and 31-17 to the Bengals.

What’s the common thread there? Well, the fact that they only scored 17 points in each of their losses. So maybe the simple answer to this question is to hold them to 17 points. But the other commonality throughout each of those losses was Brock Purdy being forced into turnovers.

Mr. Irrelevant of the 2022 Draft has become one of the stories of the NFL over the last calendar year and has largely been a master of Kyle Shanahan’s system. It has resulted in a lot of winning, though it helps that the San Francisco roster is also one of the league’s most talented.

But when the 49ers have lost this year, Purdy has been at the center thanks to some costly turnovers. He threw one interception against the Browns and two against both the Vikings and Bengals. He also lost a fumble in the loss to Cincinnati

Todd Bowles will need to get creative with his defense again and create opportunities for a secondary that struggles to pick off passes. But if the Bucs can rediscover the magic of the “Grave Diggers,” maybe they’ll have a shot at shocking the 49ers and getting back to .500.

Adam Slivon: Scheme Up Ways To Get The Deep Ball Going

One way that the Bucs can catch the 49ers off guard this Sunday is by getting a few deep ball throws to hit and to try it early and often. This is one of the better ways for Tampa Bay’s offense to play to their strengths, and if San Francisco’s elite defense has a weakness, it’s allowing opposing receivers to have big games against them.

Over the past four weeks, here is how their opponent’s leading pass-catcher fared:

Jaguars WR Christian Kirk: 6 receptions, 104 yards
Bengals WR Ja’Marr Chase: 10 receptions, 100 yards, touchdown
Vikings WR Jordan Addison: 7 receptions, 123 yards, two touchdowns
Browns WR Amari Cooper: 4 receptions, 100 yards

Bucs WR Mike Evans – Photo by: USA Today

This season the Bucs offense has been so close to connecting on deep balls, whether they have been thrown to a known commodity in Mike Evans or the still-developing Trey Palmer. Baker Mayfield is known for having a big arm, and Dave Canales would be behooved to game plan him to use it early in an attempt to get some early momentum on the West Coast.

The 49ers’ front seven is stout up front against the run, allowing only 83.1 yards per game, and that was largely before Chase Young joined the mix after being acquired just before the trade deadline. With that said, their secondary is not as strong and it is a group that has shown they can be beaten through the air weekly. Charvarius Ward is their only above-average cornerback, and even Ward has given up a big game, giving up 10 receptions to rookie sensation Puka Nacua and the Rams in Week 2.

With the Bucs being strong in pass protection this season and having established some receiving weapons, they could surprise by taking more deep shots and getting a couple to connect. In what could be an early knockout against a Super Bowl contender, it is one of the few ways they could position themselves to have a fighting chance.