Predicting Bucs’ D-Line 2023 Sack Totals

The Bucs’ pass rush looks slightly different in 2023 than it did in 2022. Gone is older players like Akiem Hicks, Carl Nassib and Rakeem Nunez-Roches. In their place stand Greg Gaines, YaYa Diaby and Calijah Kancey. The Bucs are hoping the infusion of youth will help increase the sack and pressure numbers their defensive line and outside linebackers produce this season. In 2022 those units combined for 30 sacks and 190 pressures. This year I see both of those numbers increasing.

Before we get into my predictions for 2023 it is important that we look at the results of my 2022 predictions. A good scientist evaluates his or her work and adjusts the process in the pursuit of a more perfect process. Keep in mind I work off of Pro Football Focus numbers. They credit half sacks as full sacks, so some of the numbers I reference will differ from traditional official NFL stats.

Evaluating My 2022 Bucs Pass Rush Predictions

Last year I predicted Shaq Barrett to generate 78 pressures and 14 sacks on 550 pass rush snaps. The reality was quite different. Barrett suffered a season-ending injury half-way through the season. He finished the year with three sacks and 22 pressures on 211 pass rush snaps. Even if you were to assume Barrett’s full health, he still would have fallen very short of my predictions.

Taking his pressure and sack numbers out to my predicted pass rush snaps would have only had him hit 57 pressures and eight sacks. Even before his Achilles tear, Barrett was struggling as compared to his own lofty standards.

Joe Tryon-Shoyinka fell short of the 500 pass rush snaps I predicted this time last season. He did improve his pressure rate over my 9.5% prediction (10.7%). But for the second consecutive season JTS could not convert at an even near league average rate. His five sacks trailed my prediction of 8.5 sacks by 3.5.

Anthony Nelson bested my five-sack prediction (6) due to an even higher and even more unsustainable conversion rate. Vita Vea hit my seven-sack prediction but through a slightly different route than I envisioned. Less pass rush snaps and a lower pressure rate, but Vea had a conversion rate almost twice that of the average interior defender. Meanwhile, Will Gholston had an extremely disappointing season as a pass rusher, underperforming my four-sack estimate.

Adjusting The Process

Part of my learning from performing this exercise for the second consecutive year is that I was too generous in my projections for pass rush snaps. The only player I came close to was Anthony Nelson (275 predicted vs 283 actual). This year I am taking that into account, and you will see that reflected in this year’s projections.

Bucs Player Predictions For Sacks In 2023

Now onto my predictions for 2023. Last year the Bucs had around 2,360 snaps from the interior and 2,440 from the edge. I will be using those numbers as a basis for this year’s projections.

Shaq Barrett

Starting with the Bucs’ most prolific pass rusher, I have Barrett disappointing many Bucs fans’ hopes. Given the severity of his injury, and that full recovery comes in year two, I have Barrett with a depressed pass rush snap count (322) and a lowered pressure rate (10.5%). At a league average conversion rate (percentage of pressures converted to sacks) of 16.5% I have Barrett recording 5.5 sacks and 34 pressures in 2023.

Vita Vea

After leading the Bucs in sacks in 2022 I have Vea taking a step back in 2023. That’s not to say he doesn’t have a productive season. With 371 pass rush snaps and an 11.25% pressure rate, I predict Vea will improve his pressures from 34 in 2022 to 42 in 2023. But I see Vea’s conversion rate dropping from the +20% he ran last year to 12.5% this year. The result? Five sacks. Still good for a big nose tackle, whose best move is still his simple, yet powerful, bull rush.

Joe Tryon-Shoyinka

The most polarizing pass rusher on the Bucs is poised for a make-it/break-it season. He made several positive strides last year, outperforming the pressure rate I estimated for him. But his lack of finishing plagued JTS’s final sack line for the second consecutive season, much to Bucs fans’ chagrin.

I see Tryon-Shoyinka leading the team in sacks this year. How? A team-leading 390 pass rush snaps and team-best 11.75% pressure rate. His 46 pressures would match his total from 2022 (on less opportunities). But I am calling my shot that JTS finally hits a league average conversion rate. This would give him a team-high eight sacks.

Calijah Kancey

Bucs DT Calijah Kancey – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

The Bucs’ major draft investment comes out of the gate swinging from my perspective, although it may not look like it from a total sack point-of-view. League average pressure rate from interior linemen is 7.4%, so when I peg Kancey to run a 9.5% pressure rate that’s a big deal for a rookie. Over 286 pass rush opportunities I have Kancey finishing the year with 27 pressures. At a league average conversion rate I predict Kancey will end the year with 3.5 sacks, but a lot of “wow” pressures.

Keep in mind with Kancey there are several factors that will make his final sack production look low. One, he is already dealing with an injury that will hurt his ability to operate at a peak level. Two, he will be in a major rotation that will reduce his opportunities.

And three, Kancey is playing a position that is notoriously difficult to generate big sack numbers as a rookie. Keep in mind that Warren Sapp, Gerald McCoy and Vea – all Bucs Pro Bowlers – only had three sacks as a rookie.

Greg Gaines

Gaines has never been a pressure/sack monster. For his career he has 64 pressures on 1,106 pass-rush snaps. That 5.8% pressure rate is below average for an interior defender. But Gaines was brought in to be primarily a backup nose tackle, although he can move along the line a fair amount.

I have him pegged for slightly lower than his career pressure rate at 5.5%. But with less than 200 pass rush snaps I have him earning just 1.5 sacks. A backup nose with 1.5 sacks should not in any way be considered a disappointment though.

YaYa Diaby

Bucs OLB YaYa Diaby and DT Calijah Kancey – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Diaby is quickly becoming the talk of Bucs training camp. The power is real. The speed is real. The biggest thing that will hold him back will be opportunities. I am bullish on the Bucs’ third-round pick and project him for a 9.75% pressure rate and a slightly higher than normal conversion rate at 17.5%. The result would be four sacks from a rotational edge with 23 pressures. That would be a good season assuming health from the majority of the rest of the line.

Logan Hall

After a disappointing rookie season, Hall is a bit of an enigma. He has bulked up to nearly 300 pounds, adding much needed weight to be able to survive against NFL offensive linemen at his height. But we can’t just write off his 2022 because he was playing too light. I see growth in his productivity with 20 pressures and three sacks over about 300 pass rush snaps as a rotational piece.

Will Gholston

Gholston was a late signing, but now enters his 11th year with the Bucs. He is still a stout run defender and will be an invaluable veteran presence for Hall and Kancey to learn from. But following his high-water pass rush season in 2020, he has steadily declined. Last season he had almost no impact as a pass-rusher. At 32 years old I see the decline continuing. However, with the offseason additions the Bucs made I feel good that the team will limit his exposure to pass rush situations. But that will undoubtedly show in his final sack number of just half a sack.

Anthony Nelson

Bucs OLB Anthony Nelson – Photo by: USA Today

Here is where Bucs fans come for my neck. Nelson posted six sacks per PFF last year (5.5 officially). He somehow managed that on just 14 pressures. A near-50% conversion rate is B-A-N-A-N-A-S and in no way can be counted on to continue. But somehow, someway many fans believe him to be a true pass rush threat and believe he can replicate his 2022. Not happening.

But perhaps I have been too harsh on the recently re-signed former Hawkeye. He may not post the same abysmal 4.9% pressure rate in 2023 that he did in 2022. The two years prior Nelson had a much more respectable 9.6% pressure rate. I’ve split the difference in my projections and put him at 7.5% and lowered his conversion rate to a (still above average) 18%. I put him at 3.5 sacks for the year as a hybrid third/fourth edge.

Pat O’Connor and The Winner of The Jose Ramirez/Cam Gill Battle

I’m lumping these together because at this point we are talking about the impact of two positions that are really just core special teamers who will rarely see the field on defense. Between the two positions I have them projected for just 185 total defensive snaps and just over 100 pass rush opportunities. Nine pressures and 1.5 sacks is the estimate for these part-time players.

The Sum Is Greater Than The Parts

You’ll notice no double-digit sacker projections for the Bucs from me. What I think fans sometimes lose sight of is just how difficult 10+ sacks really are. Last year only 22 players hit that mark according to PFF and, again, they give full credit for traditional half-sacks. The reality is that the guy most would peg for double digits is coming off of a severe injury to a part of his body he heavily relies on to work at the top of his game as he turns 32. I assume the Bucs will be pitch-counting Barret to some degree as well, reducing his opportunities.

Bucs ILB Devin White and head coach Todd Bowles – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

But if you total up these projections what you will find is a lot of sacks – 36.5 sacks to be exact according to my math. And that doesn’t count additional quarterback takedowns by the Bucs off-ball linebackers and secondary.

Last year those positions combined for 14 sacks. The year before was 8.5. Since head coach Todd Bowles’ arrival in Tampa Bay in 2019 the Bucs have averaged just under 11 sacks per season from the linebacker/defensive back units. Add that on to this base and you have a team threatening for 50 sacks and operating as a top-ten unit in the metric. And that ain’t bad.

Will I be wrong on some/most of these? Probably. I am trying to take an analytical process to a very small sample size as far as sacks. But it is my hope that if I can start to get the snap count and pressure rate predictions pretty close to the mark, I can set a baseline for expectations for Bucs fans. The conversion rate varies wildly for every player from year-to-year. But in the aggregate, I think the 36.5 sack total is a good baseline of expectation from this group.