Sign Lamar or Keep Roman…But Ravens Cannot Do Both

The offseason is still in its infancy, but outside of the Wink Martindale firing/parting-of-ways, most of the talk, at least by fans, has been about Lamar Jackson and whether or not the team should sign him to an extension – and if so, for how much.

Before I get into my specific opinion on that, I wanted to look at some salary cap numbers. Specifically, as pertains to percentage of the cap eaten up by quarterbacks who have won the Super Bowl.

High Cap Number? Better Be Truly “Elite”

I used overthecap.com for all numbers and the numbers were either rounded up or down, depending on where they fell (example: 12.6% was calculated as 13%). I went back 15 years and no quarterback has been paid more than 12% of their team’s cap. Only fours times did a quarterback account for 12% of the cap. Those quarterbacks were Eli Manning, Peyton Manning and Tom Brady twice. Nine times, the cap hit was under 10%. Ten percent was about the average for the 15 quarterbacks. Of the quarterbacks left in this year’s playoffs, three of the four account for 11% of the cap or less.

In fact, the only quarterback I could find at all who accounted for more than 12% of the cap who won the Super Bowl was Steve Young in 1994, when he accounted for 13% of the cap.

In that same 15-year time period I referenced before, plus 2021, there have been exactly 50 quarterback seasons where a quarterback has accounted for more than 12% of his team’s salary cap. Those teams’ combined record was 464-387-4, a 54% winning percentage. Of those quarterbacks, 28 of 50 missed the playoffs. The combined playoff record of the other 22 was 18-24 (with Jimmy G still playing right now). Three of those seasons ended with Super Bowl losses (two belonged to Peyton Manning) and two other seasons ended in conference title games.

Of the 22 QB seasons that ended up making the playoffs, 14 of them were by guys who are or will definitely be in the Hall of Fame: Peyton, Brady, Russell Wilson, Ben Roethlisberger, Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers. They also won 10 of the 18 games. A few other guys have a chance at making the HOF, but we will leave them out. The point is, the quarterbacks that have overcome this and gotten into the playoffs have largely been made up by the elite guys in the sport. And by the way, as good as those players are, when they had/have larger cap hits, their teams struggled, with some not even making the playoffs or even having a winning record.

I know some may be thinking, “is it just quarterbacks who take up this much of a team’s cap?” The answer is, generally speaking, is yes, with a few exceptions. Over the last 10 years, there have been 17 non-quarterbacks that accounted for more than 12% of the cap, most being edge rushers or interior defensive linemen. There were also two wide receivers. Amongst those 17 seasons, nine of their teams failed to make the playoffs. Their combined playoff record was 3-6, with only Charles Johnson of the 2015 Panthers making it to the Super Bowl. His team accounted for two of the three wins.

Basically, no matter the position, you really want to keep individual cap hits below 10%. As we know, the cap is always a key consideration. A few years ago, the Raiders were crushed for trading Khalil Mack. What people didn’t want to talk about was the huge contract he was about to get. Mack did go to the playoffs in 2020, on an 8-8 Chicago team that barely got in and really had no business doing so. The Raiders, even though the picks have ultimately not worked out, are still better off without him and his huge salary.

Can Ravens Keep Jackson’s Cap Hit Under 10%?

That brings us to Lamar Jackson. If history tells us anything, the Ravens will want to keep his cap hit below 10%.

Is that possible? We know if Lamar signs an extension, that his cap hit stays low in 2022, but what about beyond 2022? The salary cap for next season will be around $208M. If things increase over the next five years as they normally do, we could see the cap get as high as $250M by 2026. Obviously, what that number is in any given year matters, but figure that Jackson’s cap hit needs to stay in the $20-27M range in any given year to stay within these parameters. Can that be done?

I asked Russell Street Report salary cap guru Brian McFarland if he thought that the team could keep Jackson’s cap hit at 10% or below and he said that while the 2022 cap number will be well within that range, it is not likely that they can keep his cap number under $30 million unless the extension is for six or seven years. He said even at that length of contract, the cap hits after 2023 “are going to have to be in the $40M+ range”

Another thing Brian mentioned to me is that the expectation is that the cap will increase by $10-15M a year from here on out. If that ends up happening, that does change the math a little, but even at a $270M salary cap, a $40M cap hit is 15%. The cap would have to go to $335M for a $40M cap hit to be at even 12%.

To wrap all of this up, let’s truly understand what is being said here.

If the Ravens sign Jackson to the expected contract that it will take to sign him, they will have to do something that has essentially never happened in the NFL if they want to win a Super Bowl.

The Ravens won’t be the only team trying to do this of course. Kansas City, Buffalo, and eventually others, will be as well. Maybe things will change and maybe the numbers I cited above will become a thing of the past, but football is still a team sport where talent and depth is needed everywhere and the cap going up doesn’t just mean quarterbacks get paid more, it means everyone is paid more. It still means that the more money you put into one player, the less you have to spend elsewhere.

Peyton Manning had many years where his cap number was well above the 12% and in many of thsoe years, he came up short and perhaps didn’t win the numbers of Super Bowls that he should have. Meanwhile, Brady took less money and his teams have won Super Bowls and made conference title games at a rate never seen before. That’s not a coincidence.

Should They Sign Him Anyway?

The next question is, SHOULD the Ravens sign Jackson, regardless of the contract? The NFL was atop the world this weekend, with four amazing games, capped off by the KC/Buffalo game, which was one of the best playoff games you will ever see.

Of course, the consistent themes in those games were:

• Explosive plays made in the passing game
• Big plays are needed to win games

Those are aspects to the Ravens offense that are largely missing, especially in the playoffs. The Ravens do enough of that in the regular season and play the type of good complementary football that wins enough games to make the playoffs (at least prior to the injury-riddled 2021 season). The question is, can they win in January with this style of offense and this quarterback?

As I have written recently, I think the philosophy needs to change (and judging by what we saw this weekend, I hope the organization sees that too) but does the quarterback also have to change? I think the answer to that question is still unknown.

Lamar is a very polarizing figure within the fan base. Still, there are a few things I believe everyone agrees on: he is an amazing athlete, a gifted runner, a great leader, a guy who will put the blame on his shoulders and not call out coaches or teammates, and he is just an all-around likable guy that is easy to root for.

Where the differences in opinion lie are regarding what he can do with his arm. Now, I personally fall in the middle, between those who say he is a “running back playing quarterback” and those that think he is an elite quarterback. I believe he is a very good quarterback. I think there are seven guys playing now that are clearly ahead of him. Those players are (in no particular order) Brady, Rodgers, Wilson, Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, Patrick Mahomes, and Josh Allen. Deshaun Watson would be with those guys as well but for now, I am leaving him out. What those players have done on the field and/or in the playoffs (only Herbert hasn’t played in the postseason) make them no-brainers for me in terms of saying they can pass their teams to titles in at a level that I don’t feel Lamar is capable of right now.

I think Lamar is in that next group with Matthew Stafford, Kyler Murray, Dak Prescott and Derek Carr. Basically, I think Lamar is a borderline top 10 guy and honestly, if you asked me when they drafted him if I would have ever said that, I would have said no way. He has been much better than I ever thought he could be and I do think he needs to be given the chance to be even better before anyone writes him off.

Roman Has to Go

To do that, the team needs to get rid of Greg Roman and bring in an offensive coordinator that will open up this offense and can scheme a passing game to compete with Cincinnati, Buffalo, KC and the rest of the AFC. The pieces are here for this team to have a big time passing game, especially if Ronnie Stanley gets healthy and the offensive line in general gets healthy. But the weapons are there.

Personally, I am not signing Jackson (if I ever do at all) until I see him do more passing the ball. I would rather pay more later and make sure he is the guy than save some money now. This is the case whether he signs a team-friendly deal or not. The thing about a team-friendly deal is that he is still the quarterback and if he doesn’t improve passing from what he is now, I do not think the Ravens can win in the playoffs with him.

The closest team to Baltimore in the AFC, in many ways, is the Titans. They rely on a good running game and limited passing attack to win. There are probably not any two players in the league that define their team’s identity like Jackson and Derrick Henry do. It works in the regular season. But they are also two teams that have struggled to win in January over the last five years, with both teams either not making the playoffs or exiting early most of the time (and each team beating the other once, so only Tennessee has won once outside of that). I do not think that is a coincidence because their styles just don’t seem to work in the playoffs anymore. Even after adding Julio Jones to A.J. Brown, Ryan Tannehill‘s limitations proved the difference, as both his first and final passes of the loss to Cincinnati were intercepted, just as his final pass was in the loss to the Ravens last January.

Can the Ravens buck all of these trends? Can Lamar be the first quarterback since 1994 to account for more than 12% of his team’s cap and win a Super Bowl? Can he win multiple Super Bowls? Can the Ravens’ current style of football win a title in today’s NFL and if it can’t, can Lamar play a style that can? Can Lamar become an elite passer and pass his team to wins in January like the elite guys have shown they can?

All of that together is, I think, asking a lot. Usually when you start relying on doing something that has never been done before, you don’t reach your goals.

History may be the past but it can also tell the future, and for the Ravens, and the rest of the NFL, the past tells you that the old question of “what do you do at quarterback if you don’t pay your guy?” is the wrong question to ask.

The better question is, “can your team overcome paying your guy?” History tells us you can still win games and make the playoffs, but it also tells us that your success rate greatly drops and you ultimately end up disappointed and not celebrating at a parade.

Ask yourself, what is more important: titles or keeping your favorite player?

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