Six Points: Underlying Opportunities For Bucs vs. Titans

Reviewing the Bucs’ Week 10 opponent, the Tennessee Titans, here are six underlying gameplan strategies that can help tilt the contest in Tampa Bay’s favor. These are designed to be less-obvious strategies overall than the obvious. For example, the number one thing any team has to do to beat the Titans is stop Derrick Henry. We all know that and so I am hoping to spotlight how the Bucs can win more on the edges and tip the scales from a 51% favorite (the current implied odds) to 53 or 54%.

When The Bucs are on Defense

Blitz More On Second Down

Under Todd Bowles the Bucs are always going to be a blitz-heavy defense. That has been the case every year of his tenure in Tampa Bay. But there is an interesting division of when Bowles calls blitzes. The Bucs rank third in the NFL in blitz rate on first down at 41.41%. Similarly on third down they are fourth in the NFL at a 41.54% blitz rate.

But on second down, Bowles is a bit more reserved, only sending extra rushers on 32.91% of plays (eighth in the league). The Titans are one of the heaviest run teams on second down in the NFL at 46.49%. A few extra run blitz calls could help the Bucs contain Derick Henry and put Tennessee in more third-and-longs.

Test The Tackles

Please pardon the alliteration there, it was too good to resist. The Titans had to remake their offensive line over the past couple of years. Gone is former Pro-Bowler Taylor Lewan.

Tennessee decided to try and take a flyer on former first round pick Andre Dillard. The former Eagle graded out well in limited action over the past couple of years and based off of that limited tape and his pedigree the Titans decided to give him a chance to be their starting left tackle.

The results have been disappointing to say the least. Dillard has allowed four or more pressures in five of the Titans eight games this year, and he’s surrendered eight sacks.

The Titans cannot continue to play Andre Dillard. He doesn’t even get off the LOS! Instant sack. pic.twitter.com/gCBuuqbhrI

— Justin Graver (@titansfilmroom) November 10, 2023

On the other side it looks like right tackle Chris Hubbard is trending to play. He has had a nice season thus far, but it is a matchup Shaq Barrett should be favored in. Bowles needs to ask is edge rushers to pin their ears back in obvious passing situations and expect them to get home. Less dropping. More pass rushing. This is a matchup that shouldn’t require zone blitzes.

Use Carlton Davis Against DeAndre Hopkins Like Pittsburgh Used Joey Porter Jr.

DeAndre Hopkins is showing that even at age 31 he can still be a bona fide No. 1 receiver in the NFL. But his effect can be minimized by the right corner and the right gameplan. Despite his big game against Atlanta the week before, the Steelers weren’t afraid to take their big, long rookie corner and match him up one-on-one against Hopkins.

And they got fantastic results out of the matchup. Hopkins was targeted five times with Porter in coverage and netted just one catch for 17 yards.

I think last night, you really saw the upside in coverage that Joey Porter Jr. has with his tools and temperament against DeAndre Hopkins.

4.46 speed, 129” broad, 34” arms — that’s a lot to contend with physically. And experience is doing him good.

pic.twitter.com/DwbFf4bGoy

— Ian Cummings (@IC_Draft) November 3, 2023

Like Porter Jr., Carlton Davis III is big and long. And when healthy and given the opportunity to play physically he can have fantastic games against a receiver like Hopkins. The Titans lack reliable receiving options behind Hopkins. With Treylon Burks not guaranteed to clear concussion protocol if Davis can lock down Hopkins it could shut down much of the Titans passing game.

When The Bucs Are On Offense

Be Ready To Take Advantage Of The Titans In Man Coverage

The Titans’ two primary outside corners are Kristian Fulton and former Bucs slot corner Sean Murphy-Bunting. While Murphy-Bunting has enjoyed a nice bounce-back season, he and Fulton alike have struggled in man coverage on the season. Murphy-Bunting, who is dealing with a thumb injury, has been targeted 14 times in man coverage this year, allowing 10 catches for 143 yards and a touchdown.

Fulton has allowed four catches on five targets for 91 yards. Tennessee only runs man about 25% of the time, so the Bucs can’t create an entire game plan around that. However, when they get man looks from Tennessee, they need to be ready with man beaters.

Two route combo. Godwins pre-snap motion coupled with Evans’ subtle inside move to start his stem create natural leverage to the outside. Godwin runs away from his man. Two routes…both open. pic.twitter.com/KiBgnYlhUy

— Joshua Queipo (@josh_queipo) October 2, 2023

The Bucs won’t end up with 40% of their passes against man coverage, but if they are ready for it, they can get 40% of their passing yards off of a few big shots against it. Bucs receiver Chris Godwin has played well against man coverage this year, earning an 80.3 receiving grade against man coverage this year and Mike Evans earned an 84.4 grade against man just last year from Pro Football Focus.

Be Aggressive On Fourth Down

While he may have a reputation as a “throwback” defensive-minded coach, Mike Vrabel is quite forward-thinking when it comes to 4th down decisions. Based on decision-making models the Titans go for it over 70% of the time when they should. That’s the sixth-highest rate in the league.

Comparatively, Todd Bowles goes for it when he should only 46% of the time. That’s good for the seventh-lowest rate. When matched up against a great coach such as Vrabel, Bowles will have to match him with in-game decision making or risk giving away the margins in what could be a close affair between two teams transitioning away from playoff windows.

Run The Ball … On First Down … From 11 Personnel

Bucs RB Rachaad White – Photo by: USA Today

I can’t believe I’m writing this myself. But while I am a proponent of using the forward pass on first down at a much higher rate than the Bucs currently do, sometimes a single-gameplan can call for a temporary pause of an overarching philosophy. The Titans allow an EPA/rush of 0.08 when in a 3-3-5 defensive front.

That may not seem like much, but the truth is most run plays generate a negative EPA. The Titans match 11 personnel with that front more than any other defensive combination.

Philosophically Vrabel and the Titans believe in stopping the run with just six defenders in the box. They rank 30th in the NFL in average players in the box on first down at just 6.17. If ever there was an opportunity to generate positive plays on first down, it’s this week against this defense. After a better game running the ball in week nine against the Texans, the Bucs should take advantage of this unique opportunity.

If the Bucs can get into 11 personnel on early downs, they can take advantage of Tennessee’s struggles to stop the run and set themselves up in advantageous second downs.