SR’s Fab 5: Bowles, Bucs D Can’t Let Lesser QBs Beat Them

Welcome to SR’s Fab 5 – my weekly insider column on the Bucs that features five things that are on my mind. SR’s Fab 5 is now a quicker read, but still packs a punch. Enjoy!

FAB 1. Bowles, Bucs Defense Can’t Let Lesser QBs Beat Them

Bucs head coach Todd Bowles called what may have been his worst game of the year in Tampa Bay’s 24-18 loss at Buffalo.

The Bills totaled 427 yards, completed 7-of-13 third downs and only had to punt four times. The Bucs trailed by 14 points in the third quarter and had four different players with 65 yards receiving or more.

Josh Allen was only sacked twice and rarely pressured. He completed 31-of-40 passes for 324 yards with two touchdowns and also ran for 41 yards and another score on a questionable zone call in the red zone.

The only blitz call that seemed to work was when Antoine Winfield Jr. came off the edge and batted an Allen pass that was picked off at the line of scrimmage by defensive lineman Will Gholston. Otherwise, Allen often capitalized on Bowles’ blitzes, throwing hot to open receivers for easy completions and first downs.

Bowles was off his game, and his defensive players certainly were off theirs. Keep in mind that Allen is one of the NFL’s best quarterbacks and a two-time Pro Bowler. It took Tom Brady’s overtime touchdown to beat Allen and the Bills, 33-27, the last time Tampa Bay played against Buffalo in 2021.

But no more excuses for Bowles and the Bucs defense. There are no more quarterbacks like Jalen Hurts, Jared Goff and Allen on the schedule. Instead, Bowles and his defense will face a slew of rookies and backups over the next 10 games, as well as a slumping Brock Purdy, who is 0-3 in his last three starts, in a few weeks.

The best quarterback the Bucs will play down the stretch is Jacksonville’s Trevor Lawrence, who made his first Pro Bowl last year and has the Jaguars off to an impressive 6-2 start. Other than that, Bowles and his defense should be able to outsmart, outscheme and outplay the vast majority of QBs on the docket.

Remember, Bowles got the head coaching job in part because of his defense’s heroics in Super Bowl LV. The blitz-happy Bowles did something he rarely does, build a game plan around playing Cover 2 in a rematch against Kansas City – and it worked. Bowles deployed a four-man rush against Patrick Mahomes, who was without his starting offensive tackles, and it worked. Mahomes was harassed all night and the Chiefs were held out of the end zone and to just three field goals.

Bucs ILB Devin White and head coach Todd Bowles – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Seven of those Super Bowl starters on defense are still in Tampa Bay. Where is that type of game plan from Bowles and execution from his players?

Not necessarily playing Cover 2 and rushing four up front. That was the right game plan against Kansas City that night. I’m talking about the perfect game plan each week in 2023 that takes away what teams like to do offensively, and perfect execution from what is still a very veteran Bucs defense.

That defensive performance made Bowles the highest-paid defensive coordinator in 2021. And it was fresh in the Glazers’ mind when they signed off on Bruce Arians’ decision to name Bowles his successor in March of 2022.

But the NFL is – and always has been – a “what have you done for me lately?” league.

There are 10 games left for the 3-4 Bucs to make a playoff push and perhaps even win the NFC South for the third straight year. Yes, Tampa Bay’s offense undoubtedly needs to find a way to score 20 points or more on a consistent basis.

But this year was always going to be about the Bucs defense wearing the superhero cape and coming to save the day on a weekly basis. Bowles’ defense is the strength of the team, and currently is tied with Houston for the sixth-best scoring defense, allowing just 18.3 points per game.

That’s good enough to win with.

Bucs ILB Devin White, 49ers QB Brock Purdy and OLB Anthony Nelson – Photo by: USA Today

Tampa Bay has already played three of the league’s Top 10 offenses this year – Philadelphia (28 ppg), Buffalo (27.8 ppg) and Detroit (25.0 ppg). Bowles and his defense have held every opponent below their scoring average this season in the seven games played so far. That’s a trend that must happen every week down the stretch, continuing in Houston on Sunday.

There are still some high-scoring opponents on the schedule that Bowles and his defense must contend with. San Francisco (27.3 ppg), Indianapolis (25.6 ppg) and Jacksonville (24.1 ppg) are coming up later this season.

But Tampa Bay also faces some of the league’s lower scoring teams as well, including New Orleans (21.4 ppg), Houston (21.1 ppg), Tennessee (18.9 ppg), Carolina (18.1 ppg – twice) and Atlanta (17.3 ppg).

There’s no reason why the Bucs can’t finish at least 6-4 over the last 10 weeks. That would produce a 9-8 record – one that is likely good enough this year to be a Wild Card team, as Seattle was a year ago. And perhaps a good enough record to win the downtrodden NFC South once again.

No excuses.

A playoff berth is there for the taking for Bowles and his Buccaneers.

FAB 2. Bucs Play A Slew Of Rookies And Backup QBs Down The Stretch

The Bucs defense played some of the league’s best quarterbacks last year. From Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes early on to Lamar Jackson and Matthew Stafford in the middle of the season to Joe Burrow in December.

Steelers QB Kenny Pickett and Bucs DT Logan Hall – Photo by: USA Today

Predictably, the Bucs went 1-4 in those games with the only victory over a wounded Stafford and a beat-up Rams team – barely.

But it wasn’t just those star quarterbacks that gave the Bucs defense fits. It was a trio of rookie quarterbacks and some backup QBs that made Todd Bowles’ squad look silly.

Remember the back-to-back losses at Pittsburgh and Carolina last year? The combination of Steelers rookie Kenny Pickett and backup Mitch Trubisky beat the Bucs, 20-18, and Panthers fourth-string QB P.J. Walker made Bowles’ defense look silly in a 21-3 loss.

Backup Jacoby Brissett led Cleveland to a come-from-behind overtime win after the bye week, while rookie Brock Purdy looked like Joe Montana and Steve Young in beating the Bucs, 35-7, in San Francisco.

It took an overtime for the Bucs to beat Colt McCoy and the Cardinals, 19-16, on Christmas, and rookie Desmond Ridder got his first NFL win at the expense of Bowles and the Bucs, 30-17, in the regular season finale in Week 18.

Bucs OLB Joe Tryon-Shoyinka and 49ers QB Brock Purdy – Photo by: USA Today

The Bucs face a similar host of nondescript QBs over the next 10 games with Jacksonville’s Pro Bowler Trevor Lawrence being the lone exception. It starts with a pair of rookies who are playing well in Houston’s C.J. Stroud, who has nine TDs and one INT, and Tennessee’s Will Levis, who had four TDs and no picks in his NFL debut, which was in a win against the Falcons last week.

Levis and the Titans lost at Pittsburgh on Thursday night. His end zone interception sealed the Titans’ fate late in the fourth quarter.

Then it’s a rematch against Purdy, who has struggled a bit as the 49ers are mired in a three-game losing streak, before facing Indianapolis’ Gardner Minshew, who has thrown almost as many interceptions as he has touchdowns will going 3-3 since replacing Anthony Richardson.

Houston’s CJ Stroud – 3-4 record
60.3% completion percentage, 1,800 yards, 9 TDs, 1 INT, 15 sacks
 
Tennessee’s Will Levis – 1-1 record
60.3% completion percentage, 238 yards, 4 TDs, 1 INT, 6 sacks
 
San Francisco’s Brock Purdy – 5-3 record
68.3% completion percentage, 2,033 yards, 12 TDs, 5 INTs, 14 sacks
 
Indianapolis’ Gardner Minshew – 3-3 record
63.4% completion percentage, 1,400 yards, 7 TDs, 5 INTs, 14 sacks

Texans DE Jonathan Greenard and Panthers QB Bryce Young – Photo by: USA Today

The Bucs truly have a chance at being 3-1 over the next four weeks, but can’t afford to be anything less than 2-2 – even with three of those games being on the road. Tampa Bay, which is 1-1 in the NFC South, then gets into the meat of its divisional games in December and January.

The Bucs will get two shots at Carolina’s Bryce Young, and then will either face Ridder or Taylor Heinicke, who was just named the starter in Atlanta. We’ll see how long that lasts.

And if the Saints begin to slide Derek Carr could be benched in favor of Jameis Winston, who was not dealt to Minnesota at the trade deadline – perhaps for that reason. Carr has been a disappointment thus far in New Orleans.

Carolina’s Bryce Young – 1-6 record
64.3% completion percentage, 1,202 yards, 7 TDs, 4 INTs, 22 sacks
 
Atlanta’s Desmond Ridder – 4-4 record
65.4% completion percentage, 1,701 yards, 6 TDs, 6 INTs, 25 sacks
 
Atlanta’s Taylor Heinicke – 0-0 record
57.1% completion percentage, 175 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs, 1 sack
 
New Orleans’ Derek Carr – 4-4 record
64.5% completion percentage, 1,910 yards, 8 TDs, 4 INTs, 19 sacks
 
New Orleans’ Jameis Winston – 0-0 record
58.8% completion percentage, 101 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT, 1 sack
 
Jacksonville’s Trevor Lawrence – 5-2 record
68.3% completion percentage, 1,935 yards, 9 TDs, 4 INTs, 19 sacks

There are at least six wins here for the taking for Tampa Bay – as long as the offense starts to come around and put some touchdowns on the board. If the offense can start averaging 20-21 points per game it feels like the Bucs can perhaps got 7-3 or even 8-2 in their remaining games.

But what can’t happen is for Bowles’ defense to not take advantage of the rookie QBs and backups on the schedule down the stretch and pressure them into oblivion and costly mistakes. This year, Tampa Bay can’t afford to have any losses like the kind Walker, Brissett and Pickett/Tribusky delivered last season.

FAB 3. Bucs, Bowles Need To Shake Up The Lineup

It’s incredible how stagnant the 2023 Buccaneers have become. Outside of placing running back Chase Edmonds on injured reserve and later activating him, and signing third-string QB John Wolford from the practice squad to the 53-man roster, Tampa Bay hasn’t made a roster move all year. The practice squad has been shuffled a bit, but the Bucs haven’t even really brought players in for workouts.

Bills WR Stefon Diggs and Bucs SS Ryan Neal – Photo by: USA Today

Granted, Tampa Bay only has two players on injured reserve – receiver Russell Gage and center Ryan Jensen. Meanwhile, this week’s opponent, the Houston Texans, have 13 players on IR by contrast.

Are the Bucs really that in love with their roster? This team’s record is 3-4, but Tampa Bay is acting like it’s 6-1 with how little roster moves have been made.

Bucs general manager Jason Licht and head coach Todd Bowles must not see the talent deficiencies at running back, tight end, safety and middle linebacker – outside of Antoine Winfield Jr., of course – that we all see. Not only are the Bucs not even shuffling the roster – the trade deadline came and went with zero action – they’re not even shuffling the depth chart.

The only two depth chart changes that have occurred not due to injury are benching reserve tight end David Wells for Payne Durham, and backup rookie running back Sean Tucker for Ke’Shawn Vaughn. Both moves have not made any real difference.

Last week the Bucs got slightly better play from Aaron Stinnie at left guard in his lone start in place of the injured Matt Feiler. Stinnie will get another start this week as Feiler’s knee injury is lingering to see if he can truly upgrade the left guard spot where Feiler’s play has been average at best.

Bucs DB Dee Delaney – Photo by: USA Today

Replacing Feiler is one of the lineup changes I proposed following Tampa Bay’s 16-13 loss to Atlanta. The other major one was replacing Ryan Neal with Dee Delaney at strong safety. While Delaney isn’t the tackler and run supporter that Neal is, he is better in coverage.

That switch could allow the Bucs the chance to play more man coverage rather than zone where Bowles has admitted Tampa Bay is not nearly as good. But because of the man coverage deficiencies of Neal and inside linebacker Devin White, Bowles has decided to play more zone to hide their weaknesses. That means that the Bucs can’t play to the strengths of outside cornerbacks Jamel Dean and Carlton Davis III, who thrive in man coverage.

If Neal isn’t going to be benched, Bowles at least has to sub in Delaney for a few series per game to help out in pass coverage. Delaney is tied for the team lead with two interceptions, while Neal has yet to make any play in coverage this season.

Another proposed change I’d make is at outside linebacker to help jumpstart or spark the team’s inconsistent pass rush. Right now the Bucs have a four-man rotation at edge rusher. Starters Shaq Barrett and Joe Tryon-Shoyinka are playing about two-thirds of the snaps and Anthony Nelson and rookie YaYa Diaby are playing about a third of the snaps.

Shaq Barrett
43 snaps – 66% vs. Atlanta – 7 tackles, FF, PBU
45 snaps – 65% at Buffalo – 5 tackles
 
Joe Tryon-Shoyinka
45 snaps – 69% vs. Atlanta – 6 tackles, TFL
39 snaps – 57% at Buffalo – 2 tackles, 1 QB hit
 
Anthony Nelson
19 snaps – 29% vs. Atlanta – 0 tackles
25 snaps – 36% at Buffalo – 4 tackles, 2 TFLs, sack, QB hit
 
YaYa Diaby
20 snaps – 31% vs. Atlanta – 1 tackle, FR
24 snaps – 35% at Buffalo – 1 tackle, TFL, sack, QB hit

Bucs OLB Anthony Nelson – Photo by: USA Today

Both Nelson and Diaby have seen their snaps increase over the last two weeks while Tryon-Shoyinka has seen his slightly decrease. Barrett’s playing time has remained largely unchanged.

I would try to send a message to Tryon-Shoyinka by benching him in favor of Nelson and splitting their reps 60-40 in favor of Nelson. With JTS coming off the bench with fewer snaps perhaps he will play with a greater sense of urgency with the hope of getting his starting job back.

I would reduce Barrett’s playing time to a 60-40 split, but leave him in the starting lineup. Giving Diaby more snaps will only accelerate his learning curve, while perhaps Barrett, who is 31, can be more impactful with slightly fewer reps and more rest during games.

If Bowles is going to continue to make excuses for White’s sub-par play and not bench him, he at least needs to sub SirVocea Dennis in for a few series at inside linebacker. Maybe that would light a fire under White and give the Bucs a glimpse at what Dennis could do in 2024 if White isn’t re-signed.

But I’m not going to hold my breath that any changes will be made, unfortunately.

FAB 4. YaYa Diaby Gets A Trophy Sack

YaYa Diaby, the Bucs’ third-round pick, is starting to make an impact with more playing time. A week after recovering a key fumble at the goal line against the Falcons, Diaby recorded his first sack of his NFL career on Thursday Night Football when he tracked down Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen for a 3-yard loss.

“I’ve been waiting for it,” Diaby said. “I’ve been waiting for it for a long time. Finally I got me one. All I can do is build on it and keep pressing hard and help my team out to do better on third down because that’s where we’re lacking right now.”

Bucs outside linebacker Shaq Barrett was thrilled to see Diaby get his first sack in prime time.

Bucs OLB YaYa Diaby and Bills QB Josh Allen – Photo by: USA Today

“It felt good to see that,” Barrett said. “I know he’s been out there out working at it and he finally had that moment to get the first one out of the way. Now he can start stacking them. It’s going to be big for him.”

Diaby didn’t really care which quarterback he took to the ground for his first sack. He would have preferred to get that initial sack weeks ago. But now that it’s happened, Diaby actually got a trophy sack by taking down Allen, a two-time Pro Bowler who is considered to be one of the league’s best playmakers.

“I had to sit on the sideline and think for a minute,” Diaby said. “I said, ‘Man, I’m glad my first sack was against Josh Allen.’ That was one of the guys I had on my checklist to sack. It was awesome.”

Not all sacks are created equal. I remember Warren Sapp telling me that back in the day. Sacking a league MVP like his nemesis, Green Bay’s Brett Favre, was a trophy sack because he was so hard to corral, as opposed to sacking a lesser quarterback like Detroit’s Scott Mitchell.

Sapp’s first sack came in his first NFL game in 1995 in the season opener at Philadelphia against NFL legend Randall Cunningham. Simeon Rice’s first NFL sack in Arizona came against Miami Hall of Famer Dan Marino in his second ever game in 1996.

Bucs OLB YaYa Diaby – Photo by: USA Today

Barrett also had a memorable first sack against a big-time quarterback during the third game of his rookie season in Denver.

“Matt Stafford,” Barrett said. “It was back in Detroit – strip-sack, too. Replays showed his arm going forward, but [the refs] said, ‘No.’ I’m like, ‘Okay, I’m not going to argue with it!’”

Diaby’s sack came at a cost though. He suffered a hand/wrist injury on the play and might have to wear a cast on Sunday. Diaby’s injury has not hampered his ability to practice this week.

“It was definitely worth it,” Diaby said of getting nicked up. “I’ll take getting hurt any time I can get a sack.”

FAB 5. It’s Now Or Never For Bucs’ Pass Rush

The Bucs offense has had all sorts of issues with consistency this year. As a result, Tampa Bay’s offense ranks 27th in scoring offense (17.3 PPG), 23rd in total offense (298.3 yards per game), 17th in passing offense (220.4 yards per game), 30th in rushing offense (77.9 yards per game).

But that’s not the only under-performing unit in Tampa Bay.

The Bucs’ pass rush has really underwhelmed this year, especially when it comes to sacking the quarterback. The Ravens lead the league with 31 sacks, while the Bucs have just 18. There are 17 more teams that have more sacks than the Bucs entering Week 9. Tampa Bay is on pace to record just 43 sacks, which would be the fewest sacks produced since Todd Bowles arrived in 2019.

For the second straight year, nose tackle Vita Vea leads the team in sacks – and he didn’t even play in last week’s game at Buffalo. Vea has 3.5 sacks, followed by three from outside linebacker Joe Tryon-Shoyinka, who has not developed like the team had hoped.

Bucs Sacks In 2023

DT Vita Vea – 3.5
OLB Joe Tryon-Shoyinka – 3
OLB Shaq Barrett – 2
OLB Anthony Nelson – 2
ILB Lavonte David – 2
FS Antoine Winfield Jr. – 2
OLB YaYa Diaby – 1
DT Calijah Kancey – 1
OLB Cam Gill – 1
DT Logan Hall – 0.5

Bucs OLB Shaq Barrett and DL Calijah Kancey – Photo by: USA Today

“Super frustrating, especially knowing what we can be and who we have in our room and the pressure that we can get on the quarterback,” Barrett said. “There are a lot of factors that go into it. Rush and coverage not working together. Teams quick-passing on us. We did have some opportunities in the last game (against Buffalo) but we still didn’t get there except for Nelly and YaYa.”

The Bucs have invested a lot of draft capital and cap room in the team’s pass rush over the last couple of seasons. Tryon-Shoyinka was a first-round pick in 2021, while Hall was the first pick in the second round in 2022. Neither player has played close to their draft status yet and time is ticking.

Kancey, the Bucs’ first-round pick this year, has shown some flashes in limited playing time, but hasn’t played enough yet for Tampa Bay to know if he’s ultimately a home run, a double or a strikeout. Missing most of camp, all of the preseason and essentially the first four games of his rookie season with a calf injury has certainly slowed his development.

Barrett has one year left on a deal that pays him an average of $17 million and has slowed down at age 31. He’s not the same explosive pass rusher he was in 2021. Even last season he wasn’t playing well prior to his Achilles injury.

Bucs OLBs coach George Edwards – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

New outside linebackers coach George Edwards has not made much of an impact as the team was hoping he would. If the Bucs’ pass rush doesn’t come alive down the stretch Tampa Bay may have some big decisions to make in the offseason when it comes the futures of Barrett, Tryon-Shoyinka, Hall and Edwards.

One thing that could certainly help the Bucs’ cause when it comes to rushing the passer would be getting a lead in the fourth quarter. Tampa Bay has trailed in all but two of its games – versus Chicago and at New Orleans – heading into the fourth quarter. Teams with leads can run the ball on the Bucs in the fourth quarter, which means fewer pass rush opportunities.

“I think we’re going to get there – just hopefully get some leads, man,” Barrett said. “Then we can pin our ears back and go.”

There are no more Jalen Hurts, Jared Goffs or Josh Allens on the Bucs’ schedule. With the lesser QBs the Bucs defense will be facing over the next 10 games there is no excuse as to why Tampa Bay can’t produce more pressure and get more sacks.