SR’s Fab 5: Bucs’ Free Agent Dilemma In 2024

Welcome to SR’s Fab 5 – my weekly insider column on the Bucs that features five things that are on my mind. SR’s Fab 5 is now a quicker read, but still packs a punch. Enjoy!

FAB 1. The Bucs’ Free Agent Dilemma In 2024

The NFL is a “what have you done for me lately?” league.

Whether you like it or not, when NFL teams pay players like 10-year veteran Mike Evans, it’s always for what they’re going to do for the franchise – not just what they’ve done.

Evans has done a lot for the Bucs over the past nine seasons. He’s played an instrumental role in helping this team go from a double-digit losing team to a Bucs squad that has made the playoffs the last three years and won Super Bowl LV. Evans is not just the best receiver in Tampa Bay history, but also the greatest offensive player the Bucs have ever had – knocking legendary fullback Mike Alstott from that perch.

But with Evans wanting a long-term contract extension at age 30, the Glazers would be paying Evans for what he’s going to do in each of those seasons moving forward. Is he still going to be a 1,000-yard season receiver in Tampa Bay at age 31 and 32? Is he going to be just as productive in Dave Canales’ offense moving forward as he was in the past?

And is Evans even the Bucs’ top priority in free agency next year? (See Fab 4. below)

There’s a reason why the team didn’t rush to sign him to an extension, especially to a contract worth north of $20 million per season, which is what Chris Godwin currently makes.

Tampa Bay has a plethora of pewter pirates that are in a contract year in 2023, including safety Antoine Winfield Jr., inside linebackers Devin White and Lavonte David, safety Ryan Neal and left guard Matt Feiler – not to mention left tackle Tristan Wirfs, who will be in a fifth-year option season next year.

The Bucs will likely want to extend Wirfs’ contract in the 2024 offseason to avoid having him on the 2024 salary cap at a big chunk of money at $18.244 million.

Oh, and not to mention quarterback Baker Mayfield, who will also be a free agent and plays the most important position on the team. Mayfield signed a one-year, prove-it deal worth $4 million this past offseason as he tries to transition away from being an NFL journeyman into being a face-of-the-franchise-type QB again.

If Mayfield has a career resurgence in Tampa Bay and helps lead the Bucs to the playoffs, he’ll be command a new contract from the team – or another NFL team – in free agency next March. (See Fab 5. below)

Bucs assistant general manager Mike Greenberg has had three back-to-back-back rough years in free agency. In 2021, he had to somehow, some way get all of the team’s starters back under contract for one more run after winning Super Bowl LV in 2020. The team mortgaged the future (2023) quite a bit to make that happen. The Bucs were coming off a Super Bowl and still had Tom Brady, so it was a gamble worth taking.

But that’s not the case moving forward as this current Bucs team is not a Super Bowl contender and Brady has retired.

Bucs asst. GM Mike Greenberg – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Last year,Greenberg had to account for Tom Brady’s un-retirement (and getting the G.O.A.T. back under contract) and re-signing running back Leonard Fournette to a – gulp! – $7 million per year contract, among other free agent signings. Some of which, including Fournette, wide receiver Julio Jones, defensive tackle Akiem Hicks and tight end Kyle Rudolph, did not pan out at all. Greenberg’s best move was getting star cornerback Carlton Davis III back for less than what was expected.

This past offseason, Greenberg and general manager Jason Licht were forced to go shopping at the thrift store because the team was salary cap-strapped due to $75 million in dead cap money, including $35 million from Brady alone. They managed to get both cornerback Jamel Dean and David back on less-than-expected contracts, which was good. And they did some bargain hunting with cheap deals for Mayfield, Neal, Feiler and running back Chase Edmonds.

But now Greenberg and Licht have the unenviable position of deciding which Bucs to keep and which ones to let go of in a 2024 free agency class that includes four star players who have been to at least one Pro Bowl, including Winfield, White, David – and Wirfs – assuming the left tackle’s gets an early extension to lower his 2024 cap value. Not to mention Mayfield as a possibility, too.

So let’s look at what the Bucs’ salary cap looks like in 2024. OverTheCap.com has Tampa Bay with $58,156,997 in cap room next year. There was also a nearly $20 million cap increase prior to free agency this year, and that could happen again with league revenues soaring as much as $25 million. So it’s a safe bet that the Bucs will have at least $78 million in cap room in 2024, but with the contracts of so many star players coming up, it’s going to be tough to fit all of those contracts in not just next year’s cap, but in 2025 and beyond as well.

Bucs GM Jason Licht – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Cutting injured center Ryan Jensen after June 1 next year, which seems probable, would result in a $4.676 million dead cap charge, but would also come with $1.21 million in cap savings. But those measly savings will only go so far.

So let’s examine what the Bucs might do in free agency next year – depending on how brightly the team’s stars shine this season.

It’s interesting to note that Winfield, White, David, Mayfield – and Wirfs – all had very good games to start the season in Tampa Bay’s 20-17 opening day win at Minnesota. If this continues, it certainly bodes well for this 2023 Bucs squad – and those players’ own value when it comes to free agency.

But it will only make Licht and Greenberg’s job next offseason more difficult in trying to find enough Bucs cap room to keep them all.

And in the end, he just won’t be able to.

FAB 2. Will The Bucs Keep Mike Evans – Or Chris Godwin?

Part of the reason why the Bucs have not extended star wide receiver Mike Evans a contract extension offer is because they want to see how a 30-year old Evans performs in Dave Canales’ offense. The other part of the equation?

Chris Godwin.

Bucs WRs Mike Evans and Chris Godwin – Photo by: USA Today

It would be wrong to call Evans “Batman” and Godwin “Robin” because Godwin is not a sidekick. He’s a fellow full-fledged superhero. So think of one as Captain America and the other as Iron Man from The Avengers.

For the past two seasons, Godwin has been making more money than Evans – to the tune of $20 million per year compared to Evans’ average of $16.5 million annually. Evans’ agent wants his client closer to Cooper Kupp money at $26.7 million per year.

The reality is that the Bucs will likely only be able to afford Evans or Godwin, who will be entering a contract year in 2024 at the age of 28. Godwin is two and a half years younger than Evans, and will be a free agent in 2025 at the age of 29.

Evans recently commented on the fact that the Bucs might be able to afford both star receivers moving forward.

“Absolutely,” Evans said. “I think other teams have done something similar. But this is my last time talking about contract situations. I’m looking forward to having a great season this year, and whatever happens, happens. I’ll be alright.”

The truth is that only one NFL team has paid two receivers at least $20 million apiece, and that’s the Los Angeles Chargers. And both receivers barely make $20 million. Keenan Allen makes $20.025 million and teammate Mike Williams makes $20 million.

There’s a nearly $5 million difference between that duo and what Evans and Godwin would make in 2024 if Evans were to be re-signed to a deal that averages around $25 million. And if Evans did get re-signed to a big pay day – even for less at $23 million per year – what would Godwin fetch on his next new contract in 2025?

He’s already making $20 million right now. Would he match Evans potentially at $23 million? Or would he command more – perhaps $25 million per year?

Bucs WRs Mike Evans and Chris Godwin – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Something tells me the Glazers don’t want to shell out a total of around $48 million for a pair of aging receivers in Godwin and Evans, who would be 29 and 32, respectively, in the year 2025.

So it’s not just considering Evans and his past accomplishments when looking at a new multi-year deal. It’s looking at what Evans will produce over the span of that contract in future years.

And it’s also looking at what type of contract Godwin would fetch just two years from now, and one year into Evans’ new deal.

The guess here is that the Bucs don’t extend Evans and let him hit free agency and see what type of market a 30-year old receiver with 10 seasons under his belt commands on the open market. If there isn’t a strong market – like there wasn’t for cornerbacks Carlton Davis III and Jamel Dean and linebacker Lavonte David over the past two offseasons – then Evans could be back for $20 million or less.

Evans might fetch a three-year, $66 million deal, according to the best guess from Pewter Report’s resident cap expert Josh Queipo. That’s an average of $22 million per year. My guess is that the number has to be $20 million or less for the Bucs to even consider re-signing Evans.

I can’t see the Glazers paying more than that for a receiver who will be 31 before next season starts. Not with Godwin hitting free agency in 2025 and having a young potential star receiver in Trey Palmer waiting in the wings.

I can see the Bucs keeping either Evans or Godwin, but then having to spend $20 million on another priority – left tackle Tristan Wirfs, safety Antoine Winfield Jr., linebacker Devin White or perhaps quarterback Baker Mayfield.

FAB 3. Will Tampa Bay Keep Devin White – Or Lavonte David?

Speaking of Lavonte David, the Bucs got him back relatively cheap in 2023 after the team let him hit free agency to gauge his worth. Tampa Bay paid David $12.5 million in 2022, but was able to get him to re-sign for just $4 million on a one-year deal. That’s quite the cap savings.

Bucs ILB Devin White – Photo courtesy of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Granted, David does have a very easy incentive to hit, which will add $3 million more to his deal, but that bonus won’t affect the team’s 2023 salary cap. If David continues to beat Father Time the way that Ronde Barber did back in the day during the end of his 16-year career, and the Bucs want to sign their future Bucs Ring of Honor linebacker to another one-year deal at age 34, it would probably be for a similar amount.

But Tampa Bay will feel squeezed by the salary cap again next year. It won’t be as tight because the Bucs will have more money to spend, but there will be more premium star players hitting free agency than in recent years that will command bigger contracts.

Whether David stays could depend on the play of fellow inside linebacker Devin White, too.

As much as head coach Todd Bowles loves David, he simply adores White, whom he had a hand in picking in the first round of the 2019 NFL Draft. White is the quarterback of the defense and is in a contract year. Bowles loves White’s elite speed and athleticism, especially as a blitzer.

And Bowles loves White almost like another son, too.

He’s made excuses for White at the podium during press conferences, defending his poor play or effort at times. It’s obvious that Bowles is even waiting to have the captain vote until White has a few good games to ensure that No. 45 has a C on his chest in a pivotal contract year.

As long as Bowles is the head coach of the Bucs, it’s difficult to imagine White not in the middle of his defense. White held out during the offseason and even requested a trade out of Tampa when the Bucs refused to extend his contract and forced him to play on his fifth-year option. He wants to be paid $18 million-$20 million per year as one of the league’s highest-paid inside linebackers.

Bucs ILBs Lavonte David and Devin White – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Will White finally show the consistency needed to earn the big-money contract that he’s demanding? And will the Glazers and general manager Jason Licht be willing to pay it for an off-ball linebacker?

A five-year deal worth something like $92.5 million is what Pewter Report’s Josh Queipo projects. So more like $18.5 million per year rather than the $20 million per year that Baltimore’s Raquon Smith makes. That’s still a huge chunk of change.

And if the Bucs are possibly going to invest that much into White the $4 million – $7 million that might be needed to potentially re-sign David might have to be forfeited.

Pairing White with SirVocea Dennis on his rookie contract with just a $994,332 cap hit might make more financial sense. That way, the $3 million – $6 million savings from not re-signing David could be spent elsewhere to help keep other free agents from leaving Tampa Bay.

FAB 4. Can The Bucs Afford Tristan Wirfs – And Antoine Winfield Jr.?

While the priority for Bucs fans is re-signing Mike Evans because of the emotional investment they have in the legendary Tampa Bay wide receiver, that’s not the priority for the team.

The Bucs’ priority is 24-year old Tristan Wirfs, who is actually the best and most talented player on the Bucs roster. The three-time Pro Bowler and All-Pro is on a Hall of Fame trajectory and must be kept at all costs.

Bucs LT Tristan Wirfs – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Wirfs very well could reset the offensive tackle market, and Pewter Report’s Josh Queipo sees him fetching a four-year contract worth $26 million per year. That would top the three-year, $75 million deal that Houston’s Laremy Tunsil just signed worth $25 million annually.

Wirfs is already scheduled to make $18.244 million on his fifth-year option in 2024. The Bucs have two options with Wirfs.

The first option is to have him play on that cheaper fifth-year option, but have that amount occupy $18.244 million worth of cap space. And then attempt to re-sign Wirfs one year later when the market will undoubtedly go up and then Tampa Bay is likely paying the left tackle $27 million per year.

The other option would be to re-sign Wirfs to a long-term extension prior to his fifth-year option season like the team did with defensive tackle Vita Vea. That allows the Bucs to drop Wirfs’ base salary next year (which would lower his cap value in 2024) below the $18.244 million his fifth-year option figure would occupy and create more cap space to re-sign other Buccaneers.

And by re-signing Wirfs before free agency in 2024, it would likely save the Bucs $1 million per year or more over the life of his contract rather than waiting until free agency in 2025 to extend his deal.

After Wirfs, the next priority is safety Antoine Winfield Jr., who is the ultimate chess piece in Todd Bowles’ defense. Winfield is not just great in coverage and an excellent blitzer, evidenced in Week 1 with a sack-forced fumble-fumble recovery trifecta, he’s also a sure tackler. In fact, he’s the Bucs’ best open-field tackler.

Bucs S Antoine Winfield Jr. and Vikings WR Justin Jefferson – Photo by: USA Today

Winfield made two touchdown-saving tackles of Justin Jefferson that were instrumental in Tampa Bay’s 20-17 win at Minnesota. The former second-round pick just turned 25 and will be in his prime throughout his next contract in Tampa Bay.

Pewter Report’s Josh Queipo projects a four-year deal for Winfield worth $66 million. That’s an average of $16.5 million per season – a huge raise over the $2,125,178 he’s making in 2023.

Winfield is a difference-maker and he’s young and playing for a defensive-minded coach who will always have him position to make game-changing plays. He’s worth the big investment.

Jason Licht’s 2020 draft class could become the second-best in franchise history behind the Bucs’ fabled 1995 draft class that produced a pair of Hall of Famers in Warren Sapp and Derrick Brooks. Wirfs and Winfield have proven to be special players and now it’s time for them to cash in.

FAB 5. Can Baker Mayfield Become The Face Of The Bucs Franchise?

The NFL season is a long, 17-game grind and we’re only through Week 1. It’s too early to speculate whether or not the Bucs will re-sign quarterback Baker Mayfield to a long-term deal, but the former Heisman Trophy winner had a nice debut for his new team in helping Tampa Bay upset Minnesota.

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: USA Today

Can Mayfield stay healthy for 16 more weeks? Will he continue to avoid interceptions and play well enough to earn a new, long-term contract and a big pay raise? Can the Bucs win enough games to justify shelling out over $20 million for another quarterback as they did with Jameis Winston in 2019 followed by three years of Tom Brady?

After all, Mayfield was signed to a one-year, prove-it deal worth $4 million.

Let’s suppose Mayfield goes wire-to-wire as the Bucs’ starter and helps Tampa Bay produce a winning season while having a year similar to that of Seattle’s Geno Smith in 2022. Smith, a 32-year old journeyman QB, replaced Russell Wilson and threw for 4,000 yards while leading the Seahawks to a surprise playoff berth while becoming a first-time Pro Bowler and the NFL Comeback Player of the Year award winner.

Smith was rewarded with a big contract extension worth $75 million over three years – $25 million annually. That makes him the league’s 18th-highest paid QB in the league.

If Mayfield were to follow in Smith’s footsteps, he could fetch a similar deal in free agency. If he doesn’t make the Pro Bowl and the Bucs somehow miss the playoffs despite maybe winning nine or 10 games, Mayfield could get slightly less – perhaps a three-year deal worth $66 million ($22 million annually).

North Carolina QB Drake Maye – Photo by: USA Today

What will impact Mayfield’s future in Tampa Bay or elsewhere is a mega-QB draft class on the horizon in 2024. There could be as many as 20 quarterbacks drafted next April and perhaps as many as 12 by the end of Day 2 alone.

Would the Bucs want to go a cheaper route and draft a quarterback in the first or second round and let Mayfield go? The team’s enthusiasm for that route will largely depend on how Mayfield plays and how many wins he helps generate in 2023.

The good news for the Bucs is that there are plenty of ways to attack the quarterback position next offseason, and having such a rich QB class in 2024 could drive Mayfield’s market down in free agency because more teams might want to wait to draft one rather than pay a hefty amount to a 29-year old veteran who has already played for four teams.

Of course if the Bucs do re-sign Mayfield they can always hedge their bets and draft another potential starting QB in the second round to compete with Kyle Trask in case Mayfield gets injured or he’s ineffective in 2024.

The post SR’s Fab 5: Bucs’ Free Agent Dilemma In 2024 appeared first on Pewter Report.