SR’s Fab 5: Dave Canales Reveals Who Will Be Bucs Starting QB

Welcome to SR’s Fab 5 – my weekly insider column on the Bucs that features five things that are on my mind. SR’s Fab 5 is now a quicker read, but still packs a punch. Enjoy!

FAB 1. Dave Canales Reveals Who Will Be Bucs’ Starting QB

During his press conference on Wednesday, new Bucs offensive coordinator Dave Canales revealed which quarterback will be under center for Tampa Bay’s season opener at Minnesota.

Just as I’ve suspected – and discussed on the Pewter Report Podcast before – the quarterback battle between veteran journeyman Baker Mayfield and unproven Kyle Trask will be decided by which quarterback ultimately turns the ball over the least in training camp and the preseason.

“This is a competition – we’re going to allow us to go into the preseason and let them show us that they can manage to get us into the right play, they can take care of the ball – that’s going to be the determining factor, really, who takes care of the ball,” Canales said. “The bonus is who pushes it down the field.”

The days of no risk it, no biscuit in Tampa Bay are over.

Todd Bowles and Canales will be playing a much more conservative brand of offense and adhering to the first rule of football, which is “Don’t beat yourself.”

Before you think this is Dungyball 2.0 with a boring offense on tap for this year, I’ll remind you that Seattle had a 4,000-yard passer, a 1,000-yard rusher and a pair of 1,000-yard receivers, and was actually 10th in scoring last year, averaging 23.9 points per game.

That was 5.7 more points per game than the Bucs, who had the league’s 25th-ranked scoring offense. I’m not suggesting that Tampa Bay is going to have a Top 10 offense this season in Canales’ first year as a play-caller. But the guess here is that the Bucs have enough talent that they can at least score 21 points per game, which was middle of the pack last year.

Give last year’s Tampa Bay team 21 points in every game and the Bucs finish 10-7 instead of 8-9.

So, which quarterback is going to be leading the Bucs to 21 points per game (or more) in 2023?

Baker Mayfield.

Just listen to the way Canales spoke about him.

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo courtesy of the Buccaneers

“What’s cool about him is that he’s got a ton of game experience.” Canales said. “I just like his presence. He just has such a great swag. He steps into the huddle and he belongs. He comes in here, he lights up the room. He’s a good dude and he knows how to connect with people – that’s what I’ve been most excited [about]. And then of course, the game is never too big for him – the bullets start flying and he stays cool. I love that about him.”

But the reason why neither Canales nor head coach Todd Bowles will anoint Mayfield the starter right now is because if the former No. 1 overall pick in 2018 starts turning the ball over in practice and in the preseason games he won’t be guy.

Kyle Trask will be.

Mayfield has the experience and the intangibles working for him. But if he tries to do too much and takes too many risks with the football, the Bucs will turn around and hand the job to Trask – quickly.

Mayfield had a nightmarish season in 2019 in Cleveland, throwing 22 touchdowns and 21 interceptions as the Browns wound up 6-10. That was a season akin to the one Jameis Winston had in Tampa Bay that year with 33 touchdowns and 30 interceptions as the Bucs finished 7-9.

That’s why both quarterbacks have to be prepared to start. If Mayfield falters, it’s Trask’s job if he’s ready – and as long as he does a better job protecting the ball.

The kind of season the Bucs want from Mayfield is like the one he had in Cleveland the next year in 2020, with 26 touchdowns and eight interceptions, leading the Browns to an 11-5 record and the playoffs.

Bucs QB Kyle Trask – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

New Bucs running backs coach Skip Peete agreed with Canales’ general philosophy about avoiding turnovers at all costs. Last year in Dallas, Peete’s running backs didn’t have a single fumble.

“Protect the ball – it’s the most important thing we can do,” Peete said. “We can’t score if we don’t have it. I always tell them, I say, “Listen, you get an opportunity to obviously catch it and run with it. But – I’ve always had the philosophy – if you can’t hold on to it, you can’t play. I’m sorry. Because if we can’t secure the football then we have no opportunity to score. If not, then you’re giving the other team another advantage, and an opportunity to go down and score themselves.

“So taking care of the football is the number one thing as a position, but really as a team. You don’t want to give another team any more opportunities than they are already getting.”

FAB 2. Don’t Worry About A Lengthy Bucs QB Competition

Tampa Bay Times Bucs beat writer Rick Stroud asked a great, legitimate question of new Bucs offensive coordinator Dave Canales on Wednesday. He said wouldn’t it be more advantageous to name the more experienced quarterback (Baker Mayfield in this case) as the starter and begin prepping him for the season opener than having a supposed QB competition with Kyle Trask, who has only completed three passes in an NFL game?

Seattle Seahawks QBs Geno Smith and Drew Lock – Photo by: USA Today

Stroud’s point has a ton of merit. If Mayfield were named the starter today, he would have the majority of reps with Tampa Bay’s starting offensive line, with running back Rachaad White and with the team’s starting receivers. Mayfield would be better prepared to take on the Vikings in Week 1 with more reps.

But Canales countered that point quite well.

“I think philosophically for me, coming from Seattle, the best guy gets the job,” Canales said. “You saw it happen last year, first-hand. It was Geno Smith, it was Drew Lock and it was a true competition. You had a guy who hadn’t played in a long time, and you had a guy who had some pretty bad experiences in the recent past with Drew. For me, it’s a win-win when you create a competition.

“Here’s why: if you name a starter today, the backup guy starts thinking like a backup. But if you say, this is a competition, we’re going to allow us to go into the preseason and let them show us that they can manage to get us into the right play, they can take care of the ball – that’s going to be the determining factor, really, who takes care of the ball. The bonus is who pushes it down the field. If we can play great defense, run it, and take care of the ball – we’re going to be a great team. The guy who can show that is going to win the job.”

Again, it all comes down to protecting the football just as much as it is about making plays at the quarterback position.

“For me, what I end up getting out of Drew and Geno, is two guys who had to mentally put themselves in a place where ‘I could be, I’m going to be the starter this year.’ They trained that way all the way through the last game of the preseason. We’re in Dallas and Drew is playing for his job, Geno is playing for his job – they both know that.

Seahawks QB Geno Smith and Bucs OLB Anthony Nelson – Photo by: USA Today

“Game one, I’ve got a starter in Geno and I’ve got a backup who’s been thinking he’s a starter for six months. Whoever won the job was going to be the starter, but the other guy was going to bring so much more value and confidence to our room. That’s been our philosophy and I’d like to take it as far as I can, but of course the head coach, the general manager – we’re going to all have discussions. Like I told [General Manager] Jason [Licht] early on, ‘I will coach the crap out of whoever you give me and whoever we decide to – but I’ll have them both ready.’”

Smith, a journeyman quarterback, made his first ever Pro Bowl last year with 30 touchdowns and just 11 interceptions. And he won Comeback Player of the Year at age 32 while helping Seattle win nine games in a season when many picked the Seahawks to finish last in the NFC West.

(See any potential parallels here?)

Don’t worry about a prolonged QB competition in Tampa Bay ­– even if it goes down to the third preseason between Mayfield and Trask. It certainly worked out okay for Smith and Seattle last year.

FAB 3. Dave Canales Is A Breath Of Fresh Air

There is that old saying, “Nice guys finish last.”

But somehow I don’t think that applies to new Bucs offensive coordinator Dave Canales, who is certainly a nice guy.

Canales is extremely forthcoming and detailed in his press conferences so far, and that’s night and day from some of the sometimes-incoherent pressers we got from former offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich. It was clear that Leftwich did not have a grasp on analytics, which he often wrongly called “fantasy football stuff,” and would come across as arrogant and disrespectful to the media for asking pointed questions at times.

Bucs OC Dave Canales – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

It’s all talk right now.

Canales has yet to call his first play in Tampa Bay – or anywhere in the NFL – yet.

He’s an extremely inexperienced hire, and a big gamble by head coach Todd Bowles.

But if his play-calling winds up being anything like his press conferences, Canales could be a home-run hire. It’s clear he’s an excellent communicator and a very likable guy – two very important traits for coaches, who are leaders of men.

The energetic Canales has everyone in the building excited about his new offense – the players, the new coaches the holdover coaches. Everyone.

On Wednesday, I asked new wide receivers coach Brad Idzik, who is close friends with Canales and followed him from Seattle to Tampa Bay, if he has any doubt that Canales will succeed as a play-caller this year with the Bucs.

“He has called plays in practice situations and in live situations in mock games,” Idzik said. “Before every single game me and Dave would take our trip up to the booth and we would call a mock game. I’ve seen him … the players feel it. Go ask Geno Smith. Ask Geno Smith how Dave would be as a play-caller and I guarantee he would stand on the podium for him and say, ‘This guy, he gets it.’ Dave has such a natural feel when it comes to the game of football that I have no doubt.

“I know he can talk up here for days [at the media podium], but he can also come up here just as natural as he is in front of a mic in front of you guys (the media) and he’s the same when he’s on the mic on the headset. You can ask Brian Schottenheimer. You can ask Shane Waldron. You can ask Pete Carroll. Who do they go to for help when they need it most when the shots are firing? ‘Hey, I don’t want anyone else on the mic. Dave, what do you want here?’ So he’s had guys lean on him for the past 13 years in Seattle at the most critical moments, and Dave comes through time and time again.”

Canales can certainly talk the talk. He’s an absolute joy to listen to and learn from.

The real challenge is if he can also walk the walk as a play-caller who puts points up on the scoreboard and helps the Bucs win games.

We’ll find out soon enough.

FAB 4. Is The Bucs Defense Big Enough To Stop The Run?

The Bucs defense has sacrificed size for speed this year. Gone is 6-foot-5 defensive lineman Akiem Hicks, whose weight was likely north of the listed 324 pounds, in addition to 6-foot-6 Will Gholston, who weighed about 315 pounds last year.

Starting in their place figures to be Calijah Kancey, the Bucs’ first-round pick, who stands just 6-foot-1, 281 pounds, and Logan Hall, a 6-foot-6 second-year defensive lineman who is trying to gain weight from the 286 pounds he weighed last year. Hall is now up to 296 thanks to the Bucs’ strength and conditioning program as he tries to reach 300 pounds by the start of the season.

New Bucs DT Calijah Kancey Photo By: USA Today

Both Kancey and Hall are extremely quick and athletic, but can these young defensive linemen – ages 21 and 23, respectively – hold up against the run this year as first-time starters? There will be several older offensive linemen they’ll face who have “grown man strength,” which is a real thing. And those two young Bucs will be targeted for double-team blocks in the running game by opponents when 347-pound nose tackle Vita Vea isn’t.

While Tampa Bay will be squaring off against more unheralded quarterbacks this year than a year ago when the team battled Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers, Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes, Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson and Cincinnati’s Joe Burrow, the Bucs defense will be facing some of the league’s most powerful and dangerous ground games.

In fact, the Bucs will be challenged by six of last year’s Top 10 rushing attacks – and 10 of the Top 15.

Top Rushing Attacks The Bucs Will Face In 2023

Last year’s rushing rankings listed below.

No. 1. Chicago (WEEK 2) 177.3 ypg – QB Justin Fields, RB D’Onta Foreman, RB Roschon Johnson

Not only is Fields a 1,000-yard rusher, but Foreman gave the Bucs problems last year in Carolina. Johnson is another big, power back in the mold of Foreman who can give the Bears a hefty 1-2 punch.

Falcons RB Tyler Allgeier – Photo by: USA Today

No. 2. Atlanta (WEEKS 7 & 14) 159.9 ypg – RB Bijan Robinson, RB Tyler Allgeier

Robinson could be a generational-type back in the mold of Saquon Barkley. Allgeier is a hammer who ran for over 100 yards against the Bucs last year and had a 1,000-yard season as a rookie.

No. 4. Philadelphia (WEEK 3) 152 ypg – QB Jalen Hurts, RB D’Andre Swift, RB Rashaad Penny, RB Kenneth Gainwell

Hurts is a dynamic rusher and red zone threat. The Eagles landed Swift and Penny in the offseason and both bring speed and elusiveness, while Gainwell is a great receiver out of the backfield.

No. 7. San Francisco (WEEK 11) 136.8 ypg – RB Christian McCaffrey, RB Elijah Mitchell, WR Deebo Samuel

McCaffrey has had big games against the Bucs while in Carolina, and had a 100-yarder last year vs. Tampa Bay in San Fran. Mitchell is a great complementary back, and Samuel will get some carries, too.

No. 8. Buffalo (WEEK 8) 133.5 ypg – QB Josh Allen, RB James Cook, RB Damien Harris

Allen is one of the faster mobile QBs in the league and is a load to bring down. Cook is speedy and smooth, and likes to bounce outside, while Harris is more of bruising runner between the tackles.

No. 10. Carolina (WEEKS 13 & 18) 128.2 ypg – RB Miles Sanders, RB Chuba Hubbard

New offense in Carolina, but Frank Reich likes to run the ball, and will do so with Sanders, a free agent import from Philly after his 1,200-yard season. Hubbard is a holdover who has good size and speed.

Alabama RB Jahmyr Gibbs – Photo by: USA Today

No. 11. Detroit (WEEK 6) 128.2 ypg – RB Jahmyr Gibbs, RB David Montgomery

The Lions love to run the ball and will have a new backfield with Gibbs, the 12th overall pick, and Montgomery, a workhorse back, who has rushed for at least 800 yards in each of his four NFL seasons.

No 13. Tennessee (WEEK 10) 125.4 ypg – RB Derrick Henry, RB Tyjae Spears

When healthy, King Henry can be the best running back in the league. The Titans love to ground and pound opposing teams, and now have a dynamic rookie in Spears who is fast and elusive.

No. 14. Jacksonville (WEEK 16) 125.1 ypg – RB Travis Etienne, RB Tank Bigsby

Etienne was a 1,000-yard back in 2022 in his first season in Jacksonville after missing his rookie year. Bigsby, a rookie, is a big, physical, power back who can break tackles and move the pile.

15. Green Bay (WEEK 15) 124.3 ypg – RB Aaron Jones, RB AJ Dillon

The Packers have leaned on Jones’ rushing ability to provide balance on offense, but may run the ball even more with unproven Jordan Love at QB. Dillon is a 240-pound sledgehammer of a back.

Bucs defensive line coach Kacy Rodgers knows that getting back to being dominant in run defense will be even more important this season. Tampa Bay had a Top 3 rushing defense from 2019-21, but fell to 15th last season.

Bucs NT Vita Vea and LB Lavonte David – Photo by: USA Today

“That will be the first thing we address when we come back as a whole and are getting ready for mini camp,” Rodgers said. “When we have all of them sitting in there, I promise you that will be the first thing we address. I look back at it and evaluating it – first of all, we’ve got to get back to techniques and fundamentals.

“Stopping the run gives us a chance to win so that’s the first thing we want to try and fix going in.”

The Bucs may want to re-sign either Gholston or Hicks to add another 300-plus-pounder to help out in short-yardage and goal line defense. But Tampa Bay is banking on the quickness and penetrating ability of Kancey and Hall to get more tackles for loss this year and stop the run before it starts.

“We do want to offset some positive gains with ‘TFLs’ (tackles for loss) from quicker guys,” Rodgers said. “We really felt like we had to get faster on defense – we really did.”

We’ll see if the Bucs’ need for speed over size pays off this year against the run, or if it will be stampede for Tampa Bay’s opponents.

FAB 5. SR’s Buc Shots On The Bucs’ 2023 Schedule

Here are my quick takeaways from Tampa Bay’s 2023 regular season schedule, which was released Thursday night.

Bucs OLB Shaquil Barrett and Eagles QB Jalen Hurts – Photo by: USA Today

• This year is no different than last year – Tampa Bay needs to be at least 2-2 in the first four games, and that’s doable. Chalk up the home game against the Eagles on Monday Night Football as a loss. But the games at the Vikings and at the Saints are winnable, as is the home opener in Week 2 versus the Bears.

• Tampa Bay’s run defense will be tested right out of the gate with Dalvin Cook in Week 1, followed by the Bears and Eagles with two scrambling QBs in Justin Fields and Jalen Hurts in the next two games.

• Yes, the bye week is ridiculously early in Week 5. That 13-game stretch to finish the season will be tough. The Bucs will get a mini-bye after the Bills game on Thursday night in Week 8, which will help a bit.

• Tampa Bay has a chance to go 3-1 after the bye week. Games against Detroit and Atlanta at home will be challenging, but winnable because they’re at home. The Thursday night game at Buffalo looks like a loss, but there’s a possible rebound game in Week 9 at Houston.

• Tampa Bay won’t be catching any of the rookie quarterbacks early this season. The Bucs won’t face C.J. Stroud until they play the Texans in Week 9. Will Levis could be starting for Tennessee, but Tampa Bay won’t face the Titans until Week 10. The Bucs don’t play Bryce Young and the Panthers until Week 13 and then again in Week 18.

Bucs QB Tom Brady – Photo by: USA Today

• Snow game at Lambeau Field this year? Maybe – the Bucs travel to Green Bay to play the Jordan Love-led Packers on Dec. 17. The average high in Green Bay at that time of year is 30 degrees. The average low is 17 degrees. Of course, it didn’t snow the last time the Bucs played the Packers at Lambeau, as Tampa Bay prevailed in the NFC Championship Game in 2020, 31-26.

• Only two primetime games for the Bucs this year – Monday Night Football vs. the Eagles in Week 3 and a Thursday night game at the Bills in Week 8 – seems about right. Tom Brady helped Tampa Bay become a primetime fixture with five night games in each of the last three years, which is the league maximum. There are a slew of 1:00 p.m. ET starts – 12 to be exact – and that’s just fine. Ask the Bucs players and they would prefer getting up and playing football early instead of waiting around until 4:05 p.m. or 4:25 p.m.

• Las Vegas has the over/under for the Bucs at 6.5 wins. I’m not giving you any betting advice, but I’m taking the over. This team is talented enough to win at least seven games this year. Somewhere between seven and nine wins feels right.

• Just a head’s up – no SR’s Fab 5 next week, as Ashley and I are heading to Colorado for a vacation week before Bucs OTAs begin.

The post SR’s Fab 5: Dave Canales Reveals Who Will Be Bucs Starting QB appeared first on Pewter Report.