Stats all ya got? Denver Bronco stat review for week 7 of 2022

another set of historic lows for the Brncs – notice there is no “O”.

I’m going to start with the few bits of good news and then dump the heavy stuff on y’all.

The Denver Broncos came into Sunday’s game having converted on six of 52 third and long situations (11.5 percent). The Broncos converted on three of nine on Sunday (two on catches from Jerry Jeudy and one on a defensive holding play). We have now moved from dead last to 29th in conversion rate on 3rd and long. The Eagles (14.3 percent), Panthers (13.6) and Buccaneers (10.2) are worse. The Chiefs still lead the league at 42.2 percent.

Overall the Broncos are not last in 3rd down conversion rate; they’re second to last at 30.4 percent. The Panthers are worse at 25.0 percent. The Bills lead the league at 52.8.

The loss dropped the Broncos to 2-5 and was the fourth straight loss, two of which came at home. The only good thing is that there are nine recent teams that started 2-5 and still somehow made the playoffs. A few of them even won in the wildcard round.

The teams that won a playoff game were the 2002 Jets, 2011 Broncos, 2015 Chiefs and 2018 Colts. Of course, I have absolutely no confidence in this team to turn things around with our clueless offensive coaching staff, but it can happen. Since 1990 there are 156 teams that started the season 2-5 and 5.6 percent of them made the playoffs. Let’s take a look at the two that are the closest to home: the 2015 Chiefs and the 2011 Broncos.

The 2015 Chiefs still had former #1 overall draft pick Alex Smith at QB. They started the season by beating the Texans 27-20 and then proceeded to lose five straight including their last loss (dear God, I am so sick of typing that) to the Broncos when a Jamaal Charles fumble was returned for a TD by Bradley Roby. They went on a nine game winning streak after starting 1-5, but they guy calling the plays on offense knows what he was/is doing. After losing in consecutive games to the Broncos, Packers, Bengals, Bears and Vikings, they went on a historic tear that was led by an efficient offense and one of the better defenses in the league. The 2015 Chiefs finished the season 3rd in points allowed and 9th in points scored. The 2022 Broncos have a defense that can match that, but there is very little chance that the offense, which is currently dead last in scoring, can finish in the top third of the league.

Right now the Broncos are scoring 14.3 points per game. The current team in 9th place in scoring is the Lions at 24.3. Over the course of the regular season means the Lions would score 413 points on this pace. To reach that level the Broncos would need to score 313 points over the next 10 games, or 31.3 points per game. That would mean the Broncos would have to more than double their offensive scoring output in the final ten games relative to the first 7 games. If that happens, I will be overjoyed, but the odds of that happening are about the same as my odds of winning the Nobel prize in literature.

If you are reading this, you are probably old enough to vividly remember the 2011 season when an ineffective Kyle Orton, who had led the Broncos to a 1-4 start, was replaced by Tim Tebow at halftime against the Dolphins in Miami and somehow the Broncos won that game in overtime 18-15. The Broncos were down 0-15 with 5:23 left to play, first and 10 at their own 20 with a QB who wasn’t very good at throwing the ball. The Broncos drove 80 yards for a TD, recovered an on-side kick (Virgil Green), then scored a TD on a 3-yd pass to Daniel Fells with 17 seconds left on the clock. Tebow ran it in for the 2-point conversion and the game went to OT. The Broncos won after D.J. Williams strip-sacked Matt Moore at the MIA 36 and Matt Prater won it with a 52-yard field goal.

While we like to remember that season as a fairy tale, the Broncos got absolutely destroyed 10-45 the next week by the Lions (really, the Lions?) IN DENVER. Most of us, me included, were ready to write off the season as another failed season at that point, but Mike McCoy wasn’t one of them. He went back-to-basics with the offense and essentially had Tebow run the zone-read offense that he had led so successfully with the Gators. This improbably led the Broncos to string together six straight victories to get to 8-5 (two in overtime). Things looked really good until the final three weeks of the regular season when things started to fall apart. The Broncos were embarrassed in Poxboro 23-41 by the Patriots (game wasn’t that close) and then stomped the following week by the Bills 14-40. The final game of the season was a chance for the Broncos to secure a playoff spot, all the Broncos had to do was go on the road in January and beat the 6-9 Chiefs. Do you remember who was the Chief’s QB at that point? Yeah, it was Kyle Orton who the Broncos had waived in late November. The Bronco offense was pathetic and the team lost 3-7 in a game that was is still recommended by doctors with patients who are suffering insomnia. The game had more punts (17) than points (10) and Tebow would finish the day 6/22 for 60 yards and one pick.

That was one of the worst games in Bronco history by passer rating as Tebow had a 20.9 that day.

Somehow, that team managed to back its way into the playoffs as the Broncos won the AFCW via tie-breakers over the 8-8 Chargers and 8-8 Raiders. The OT win over the Steelers is still one of my all-time favorite Bronco memories.

Back to 2022. I wish I knew what to do to fix the offense, but whatever the offensive coaches are doing at half-time they need a new strategy. It’s not working. In the first half of games this season the Broncos have scored on 16 of 35 drives (45.7 percent) which is tied for 10th-best in the league. Admittedly that is only five TDs and 11 FGs, which puts us in the bottom of the league in first half drive TD percentage, but second in first half drive FG percentage. The Seahawks are currently leading the league in first half drive scoring percentage at 59.5 percent – 12 TD, 10 FG on 37 drives.

The second half is a dumpster fire for the Broncos though. In the 3rd, 4th and 5th (OT) quarters, the Broncos have scored on 7 of 46 drives (15.2 percent). Amazingly, that is not the worst. The Titans have only scored on 4 of 34 (11.8 percent). The Chiefs have scored on 54.3 percent. During the last four games, all losses ,the Broncos have scored on 3 of 28 drives after halftime (one touchdown – vs LV, and two field goals). Below is a chronology of every Bronco second half (and OT) drive result over the last four games:

• Punt
• Punt
• Punt
• Downs
• Punt
• Touchdown
• End of Half (kneeldown)
• Punt
• Field Goal
• Punt
• Downs
• Interception
• Missed FG
• Interception
• Punt
• Punt
• Punt
• Field Goal
• Punt
• Punt
• Punt
• Interception
• Punt
• Punt
• Punt
• Punt
• Downs
• Downs

24 negative outcome drives: 16 punts, 3 INTs, 4 turnovers on downs, 1 missed FG.

3 positive: 1 TD, 2 FG.

This a big reason why this is the second lowest scoring team through seven games in Bronco history (100 points). Only the 1966 Broncos scored fewer points through 7 games – 91 points.

The 2022 Broncos are also the only Bronco team in franchise history to allow 115 or fewer points in the first seven games and have a losing record.

This Bronco team is oddly similar to the 1971 Broncos in that they both had very good defenses and inept offenses.

The ‘71 Broncos finished the season 4-9-1 which projects to 6-11 in the 17-game era. Realistically that is where I see the 2022 Broncos at the end of the season. I think we’ll have a dead-cat bounce and beat a couple of teams that we aren’t supposed to, but I don’t see any way for these team to have a turn-around similar to the 2015 Chiefs or the 2011 Broncos. At this point and 8-9 overall finish seems like a pipe dream since that would mean a 6-4 finish.

That being said, the Panthers, Titans, Cardinals and Rams all look very beatable if our offense can remove its collective head from its collective rectum.