Steelers should learn from 49ers, Eagles’ mistakes at QB

Steelers must “know when to fold ‘em” with quarterback Kenny Pickett…

As the wise Kenny Rodgers once sang, “You gotta know when to walk away.”

The Pittsburgh Steelers used the 20th overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft on quarterback Kenny Pickett. However, if the Steelers are serious about competing for and winning the franchise’s seventh Vince Lombardi Trophy, they should follow the path of two other NFL teams the San Francisco 49ers and the Philadelphia Eagles — two NFL teams who also drafted their perceived franchise quarterbacks in the first round, only to move on once realizing their mistakes.

Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Let’s take a look at the precedent set by these two franchises.

We’ll start with the most recent example. Before the 2021 NFL Draft, the 49ers gave up lucrative draft compensation to the Miami Dolphins to move up to the third overall selection to draft North Dakota State quarterback Trey Lance.

Recapping what the 49ers gave Miami via trade…

The 49ers traded to Dolphins:

• 2021 first-round pick (No. 12)
• 2022 first-round pick (No. 29)
• 2022 third-round pick (No. 101)
• 2023 first-round pick (No. 29)

Dolphins traded to 49ers:

• 2021 first-round pick (No. 3)

Then, in the 2022 NFL Draft, the 49ers drafted what was, at the time, an afterthought in quarterback Brock Purdy. Eventually, he played his way into the starting quarterback job following a season-ending injury to Lance. It wasn’t long before Lance fell right out of the team’s plans and was traded away to the Cowboys for a 2024 fourth-round pick. Despite the significant investment the 49ers made in Lace, they made an organizational decision. “Hey, this isn’t the guy, and we need to move on.”

There’s a lesson in that; you can’t be afraid to pull the plug on a first-round pick despite making that significant an investment. A general manager and head coach can’t saddle their wagon to a quarterback who isn’t it. “Scared money, don’t make money,” right? At least, that’s what Steelers Head Coach Mike Tomlin says.

The Eagles saw their quarterback situation play out similarly. Back in 2016, the organization thought they had finally found their guy at any team’s most important position — North Dakota State quarterback Carson Wentz. The Eagles didn’t just make one trade to move up in the NFL Draft to get Wentz, in fact; they made two trades to get him.

Let’s recap what the Eagles gave via trade back then…

Eagles traded to Dolphins:

• 2016 first-round pick (No. 13)
• CB Byron Maxwell
• LB Kiko Alonso

Dolphins traded to Eagles:

• 2016 first-round pick (No. 8)

In their second trade, the Eagles then sent the following package to the Cleveland Browns to acquire the No. 2 overall pick in the 2016 draft, which they used to draft Carson Wentz:

• 2016 first-round pick (No. 8)
• 2016 third-round pick
• 2016 fourth-round pick
• 2017 first-round pick
• 2018 second-round pick

Five seasons later, even after giving Wentz a top-of-the-market contract at four years, $128 million, the Eagles traded Wentz away to the Indianapolis Colts. Why? They drafted quarterback Jalen Hurts, who Howie Roseman & Co. deemed had more potential than Wentz.

So, there’s the precedent for moving off a first-round pick at quarterback, even when both of those teams surrendered significant draft capital to get them. The Steelers, similarly, can ill afford to waste more time waiting while things click for Kenny Pickett. You’re seemingly always on borrowed time in the NFL.

Another lesson learned — if you are searching for a franchise quarterback, your trade-up should apparently in no way involve the Dolphins.

2024 NFL Draft is an opportunity for the Steelers to turn the page

The 2024 NFL Draft class has a good crop of quarterbacks at the top of the draft. Omar Khan, Andy Weidl, Mike Tomlin, and Art Rooney II can’t afford to have blinders on. T.J. Watt and Minkah Fitzpatrick are getting older. Both, are of course still in the prime of their careers, but you just hate to see that kind of talent on a championship-caliber defense go to waste, just waiting for the team to get the quarterback right.

If, the Steelers identify a potential upgrade for them, such as Oregon quarterback Bo Nix, then they should go up and get him. After all, nobody cares if you missed on that 2021 first-round quarterback… as long as you find the guy later.

One potential spot the Steelers could consider in a trade-up scenario is a move with the Chicago Bears at No. 9 overall. Should the Steelers identify an option at quarterback, they’d likely have to jump Minnesota at No. 11, as the Vikings may be looking at going quarterback as well with Kirk Cousins heading into free agency.

What would a trade-up cost the Steelers?

Each NFL draft pick has a number value associated with it, now it can change from year to year, and teams may have their value chart. Using the NFL Fitzgerald-Speilberger NFL Draft Trade Value Chart at Over The Cap, we will see an example of what such a move-up might cost in draft capital.

In this example, the Bears (No. 9) selection has a value of 1,887 points. The Steelers’ pick at No. 20 has a value of 1,485 points. That means that to move up 11 spots would require an additional 405 points. Now, the Bears would probably want to capitalize on more value than that to move down, so Pittsburgh will need to give up a little extra. The Steelers do have two fourth-round selections (Nos. 119 and 120, worth 578 and 574 points respectively) which they could move to balance out the value of that trade. Using this tool, the Steelers’ first and fourth-round picks combine for a value of 2,059 points in exchange for the ninth overall pick at 1,887 points.

Regardless of whether it’s in the draft or free agency, the Steelers must recognize it’s time to fold the cards with Kenny Pickett… and start to look for the real answer elsewhere before their championship window closes.