The AP staff (and our readers) pick Super Bowl LVII

Let’s see what AP staffers (and readers) think about Super Bowl LVII between Kansas City and Philadelphia.

For the AFC Championship game, only five of our 24 contributors picked the Cincinnati Bengals to beat the Kansas City Chiefs — and most of us who picked the Chiefs thought it would be a close game; nobody thought it would be a blowout. Most of us simply thought there would be more scoring. So it worked to a composite prediction of a 30-28 win, which was 16 points removed from the 23-20 final. About one in five of our readers also thought the Bengals would win, but about one in 10 thought a Kansas City blowout was on the way.

In Super Bowl LVII, the Chiefs face the Philadelphia Eagles at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona. According to DraftKings Sportsbook, Philadelphia is favored by 1.5 points.

Let’s see what the staff — and our readers — think about the matchup.

Price Carter (@ArrowheadPrice)

Nothing has been more overstated than the difference between the Kansas City and Philadelphia rosters. Do the Eagles have the better overall roster? Yes. Is it close? Yes. The Chiefs have depth all over the field — and have made it through a more-difficult conference with a quarterback who was struggling with an injury. The gap between these two teams is not large. This feels like a game where we remember that quarterback play is what wins championships. In 2019, the San Francisco 49ers kept the game close — but in the end, Patrick Mahomes made the plays Jimmy Garoppolo couldn’t. I expect the Kansas City defense to have a great plan for the Philadelphia offense. In the Mahomes era, the Chiefs are 55-3 when the defense holds the opposition to 27 points or less. With his bad shoulder, Jalen Hurts is not scoring 28 points on Kansas City. The Chiefs pull away in the second half due to plays made by the defense.

Chiefs 30, Eagles 21

Tom Childs (@tomchilds56)

Let’s keep this short and sweet. While I have no doubt that the Eagles have the better roster, the Chiefs have the best three players — and the best coach — in this game. They also benefit from being here a couple of times before, so I expect them to capitalize on early Philadelphia nerves. Yes… the Eagles will grow into the game — but it’ll be too little, too late.

Chiefs 37, Eagles 31

Nate Christensen (@natech32)

Maybe this represents some availability bias — but the more film I have watched, the more I think the Chiefs are going to win this game. While I respect the Eagles’ offense, I think there are real counters to it by sending looks post-snap and blitzing Jalen Hurts. Who’s a defensive coordinator who loves to do that? Steve Spagnuolo. On offense, Philadelphia’s defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon is rather static with his fronts, which dictates how he plays coverage on the back end. That gives an offense easy answers to hit. Who’s an offensive coach with more than 25 years of experience in attacking defensive structures with personnel and motion? Andy Reid. Combine that with the significantly better quarterback — and team experience — and I actually think Kansas City wins this game comfortably.

Chiefs 26, Eagles 17

John Dixon (@Arrowheadphones)

There’s really only one way to finally put the Chiefs-can’t-win-without-Tyreek-Hill narrative to rest: defeat the Eagles on Sunday. You know it. I know it. And most importantly, Patrick Mahomes knows it.

Chiefs 31, Eagles 24

Maurice Elston (@recenickelz)

We will witness two great football teams on Sunday. The Chiefs have the advantage where it matters most: at head coach and at quarterback. Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes will lead this team to a convincing victory.

Chiefs 28, Eagles 17

Mark Gunnels (@MarkAGunnels)

The Super Bowl is finally here. Before the season, both teams had questions. The Eagles needed to know if Jalen Hurts really is a franchise quarterback. The Chiefs needed to know how good would they could be without Tyreek Hill. The answer to both questions was yes — and here they are in the Super Bowl. The Eagles obviously want to run the ball to keep Mahomes and the offense off the field — but with extra time to prepare, I believe the Kansas City defense will force Hurts into obvious third-down passing situations just often enough to make him uncomfortable. On the other side of the ball, I trust Andy Reid’s ability to scheme around the Philadelphia pass rush.

Chiefs 34, Eagles 27

Zach Gunter (@ZachGunter08)

The big game is finally upon us. So how does it go? With Jalen Hurts only throwing for 275 yards in the postseason thus far, I’m not expecting a big game from him. But that Philadelphia running game scares the devil out of me. On the other hand, the Chiefs have fought tooth-and-nail to get to this point. I expect a close-fought win by Kansas City.

Chiefs 28, Eagles 24

Conner Helm (@ArrowheadConner)

I believe this game will be won by the defense — or lost on turnovers. As long as the Chiefs don’t turn the ball over, this Chiefs offense is way too diverse to be held down for four quarters. Yes, the Eagles’ pass rush is amazing, but I think Andy Reid will be able to scheme running backs and tight ends open to slow it down. I expect big contributions from Isiah Pacheco, Jerick McKinnon and Noah Gray. A sleeper prop bet would be for a Clyde Edwards-Helaire touchdown. On defense, I fully expect defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo to unload the rest of his blitz playbook on Jalen Hurts. He is well below average against the blitz — and under pressure, struggles to throw the ball outside the numbers. If the Chiefs can stop the running game early — making Philadelphia one-dimensional — the Kansas City pass rush should have a good chance to get the quarterback.

Chiefs 31, Eagles 23

Caleb James (@CJScoobs)

If you have been following the game from a national standpoint, it seems most major sports media outlets are favoring the Eagles — some even by double digits. As crazy as it sounds, people are still doubting Kansas City — and that should fuel this team one more time. If the Chiefs can shut down the Eagles’ prolific running game and limit the deep balls from Hurts, they will be in a great position to win. Patrick Mahomes makes history — it’s kind of his thing — by breaking the MVP curse, finding Travis Kelce, Marquez Valdes-Scantlling and JuJu Smith-Schuster early and often. Look for some creative passes to Jerrick McKinnon and Isiah Pacheco out of the backfield, which will help counter Philadelphia’s elite pass rush and get playmakers in space.

Chiefs 24, Eagles 17

Ashley Justice (@Justice_Paur88)

Every conceivable storyline has been exhausted. All of the analysts have shared their expert opinions. The season ends on Sunday — and I don’t think Petty Mahomes will close out the 2022 season by letting another Super Bowl out of his grasp. I’m expecting a great, clean game between two deserving teams — both of which are the best in their conferences. It doesn’t matter if this is the season where the Chiefs are able to appease the national media and become the “dynasty” that they are destined to be. This team — and this season — are special.

Chiefs 27, Eagles 21

Ron Kopp Jr. (@Ron_Kopp)

I truly think this is an objectively great Super Bowl. The storylines have made for a fun lead-up, but this game will be amazing. Both offenses have ways to exploit the opposing defense, but both defenses also have methods that will make life hard on the other team. I think a great game is in store. The more battle-tested team — with more experience on this stage — will end up on top.

Chiefs 30, Eagles 27

Aaron Ladd (aaronladd0)

There’s no bigger stage in professional football — and what a journey it’s been for the Chiefs! From the uncertainty following a historic off-season trade to cultivating chemistry with new faces on the fly, the AFC champions enter Sunday’s matchup with great confidence. Kansas City made Joe Burrow uncomfortable from the first snap — and in order to start quickly in the desert, the team will need to do the same to Jalen Hurts. Eric Bieniemy said it best: This game will be in the paint. Whichever team dominates the trenches will snag the Lombardi Trophy.

Chiefs 27, Eagles 24

Rocky Magaña (@RockyMagana)

A year ago, the Chiefs had some sacred cows who had grown complacent. They needed to be sacrificed, making way for the demon-eyed bulls who took their places — young bovines who have never drunk from the chalice of victory. No business decisions are being made here. We are about to witness the rewriting of narratives. Legends will be formed in the fires of destiny. Tom Brady is gone. Joe Burrow is sitting at home. The NFL MVP is stepping up to the line. He looks to his right and sees the greatest tight end of all time. He looks to his left and he sees a young receiver who is determined to prove he is more than a TikTok dancer. Before him stand five human steamrollers. Behind him is a young man who puts the frustration of a lifetime into every rushing attempt. The defense is a pack of wolves — circling and eager to attack. Every bit of youth and inexperience has been shed through the fury of countless hunts. It’s time to kiss the ring — because the NFL’s kings have returned.

Chiefs 34, Eagles 21

Ricko Mendoza (@ricko_mendoza_)

Given the impossible predicament of choosing between her two sons, Mama Kelce is cheering for offenses and hoping for the highest-scoring Super Bowl in NFL history — which last happened in 1995 when the 49ers and San Diego Chargers combined for 75 points in Super Bowl XXIX. It could easily happen again as the league’s highest-scoring teams go head-to-head. While both teams have great defenses, the story in this one is the battle between two high-powered offenses — each loaded with talented skill players and led by superstar quarterbacks. I’m going to be bold, saying they grant Mama Kelce’s wish with a record-setting, high-scoring, hard-fought, nerve-rackingly close victory for Kansas City.

Chiefs 41, Eagles 38

Stan Nelson (@chiefsfanstan)

I am surprised that so many are not only picking the Chiefs to lose, but also saying that they don’t even stand a chance of beating the Eagles. I have to admit: I have not seen much of Philadelphia this season. From all that I have heard and read, they have truly earned the right to face the AFC Champions in Super Bowl LVII. But I have to agree with our local radio guys: I don’t think the Eagles have faced any team this season that was even close to resembling Kansas City’s squad. I am glad Philadelphia fans are so upbeat and confident. But this all ends with another storybook Chiefs win — as Patrick Mahomes climbs another rung in the ladder that says “GOAT” at the top.

Chiefs 34, Eagles 27

Tom Ruprecht (@truprecht)

The Bengals win showed me a lot: Mahomes performing hurt. Mahomes performing with four receivers out. The young secondary stepping up with the loss of L’Jarius Sneed. And Skyy Moore. Skyy Moore! The guts he displayed standing out there on an island and delivering an incredible punt return with the season on the line is how championships are won. I trust this entire team in a big moment. I can’t necessarily say that about the Eagles. It’s not that long ago that Jalen Hurts looked horrible in the playoff loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Are we confident in his ability to lead to a two-minute drive to win the Super Bowl? No — because he and this squad haven’t been tested in a pressure spot. That being said, the Eagles are really good. Give ‘em credit. I don’t know if the Eagles have a really good defensive line or a historic defensive line. If it’s the latter, I fear we may see Mahomes running for his life like in Super Bowl LV. But ultimately, I return to the fact that Patrick Mahomes is a generational talent. He has been on a mission this year to avenge last year’s collapse against the Cincinnati Bengals. Gun to my head, I’ve got to put my faith in Mahomes… and this team.

Chiefs 27, Eagles 24

Kramer Sansone (@KramerTalks)

All the sportsbook money is on the Eagles’ side — but I am not. Granted: Philadelphia has a great offense and defense. But people are forgetting they are going up against Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes. The last time the Chiefs were in the Super Bowl, the quarterback was running for his life. I don’t see that happening on Sunday. Mahomes will need to get rid of the ball quickly, but he can carve up the Philadelphia defense.

Chiefs 30, Eagles 28

Jared Sapp (@TrumanChief)

I do not have very strong feelings one way or the other about how this game will go — because I honestly have no idea how good the Eagles really are. I am going to trust that the Chiefs being the more battle-tested team will play to their advantage. During the Mahomes era, it’s also been rare for the team to be doubted so much. Just as they opened the season in Arizona trying to prove a point, expect them to play with a similar chip on the shoulder as they close the season in the same venue. If Kansas City plays a clean football game, I like them to outlast a stacked Eagles roster to clinch their second title in four seasons.

Chiefs 31, Eagles 27

Nick Schwerdt (@nick_schwerdt)

While breaking down this matchup over the past two weeks, I keep circling back to the same thought: the Eagles have a deeper roster, but the Chiefs are better where it matters most. Philadelphia has the superior rushing attack, pass rush and offensive line — but the Chiefs have the better quarterback and head coach. That’s a trade-off I’ll take every time — especially in the Super Bowl. It’s really tough to imagine either team not keeping this game competitive, but I think the Mahomes Effect gives Kansas City the edge — and another Lombardi Trophy.

Chiefs 24, Eagles 23

Stephen Serda (@StephenSerda)

It’s fair to say that from top to bottom, the Eagles have a more talented roster than the Chiefs. They’ve got playmakers at every position where you need them. Their pass rush is a legitimate problem — and their offensive line is a huge advantage. Head coach Nick Sirianni’s aggressiveness will no doubt be a huge factor in this game. All of that said, the talent gap isn’t as large as some would lead you to believe. This has the chance to be a very even football game — with a lot of points on the board. Honestly, I think this has a chance to be the best Super Bowl we’ve seen in a while. But it’s hard for me to bet against Patrick Mahomes. Another legacy-defining game — along with Andy Reid and Steve Spagnuolo getting two weeks to plan for this team — means good things for the Chiefs. In a high-scoring Super Bowl, I’m going to side with Reid and Mahomes.

Chiefs 35, Eagles 30

Matt Stagner (@stagdsp)

This game could actually go either way. It’s a rare Super Bowl that actually has the two best teams in the league facing off — and they are very evenly matched on paper. But the game isn’t played on paper. Those who argue that Philadelphia has the best roster from No. 2 to No. 53 are missing the point. It’s the quarterback — along with the head coach — who matter the most. And one just shouldn’t bet against the MVP and Andy Reid. Given the Tyreek Hill trade and the youth movement, we didn’t expect a Chiefs Super Bowl this year — but now that the opportunity is on the table, it feels like the team absolutely can’t let it slip away. When the Chiefs have the ball, Mahomes, Kadarius Toney and Travis Kelce will have plenty of opportunities to get an early lead. Then the Kansas City defense can focus on stopping the run, forcing Jalen Hurts to try and win the game with his arm. That will allow Steve Spagnuolo to unleash the blitz to stomp out any hope for a comeback.

Chiefs 38, Eagles 31

Bryan Stewart (@BryanStewart_)

Sometimes, this complex game seems much simpler. The Chiefs have the superior head coach. They have a far-greater quarterback. The rest of the rosters are close in overall stature. But in the end, which team winning a championship is going to make for a greater story — or more specifically, an America’s Game Super Bowl champions documentary? It’s the Kansas City team that has battled through far more adversity than this very respectable Philadelphia squad. Andy gets his revenge once and for all.

Chiefs 27, Eagles 23

Pete Sweeney (@pgsween)

And as they say… it all comes down to this. This is obvious, but worth noting: the key to this game is in the trenches. Can the Chiefs’ defense be disciplined against the rush, preventing the Eagles from gaining yardage all over them? And on offense, can the line keep Patrick Mahomes clean, allowing him to gain ground against a top-10 defense that can get to the quarterback better than anyone? My confidence in Kansas City comes from two things: first, my trust that Steve Spagnuolo will find a way to slow down Jalen Hurts and the Philadelphia rushing attack. And second, the times I have seen Mahomes face a relentless defense. It hardly ever ends well for the defense. I think that in the AFC Championship game, the Chiefs already beat their toughest opponent. I see them winning by two scores, clinching their second Super Bowl win in four years.

Chiefs 34, Eagles 24

Dakota Watson (@dwatson_56)

The Super Bowl. The game prediction I have been waiting to write since training camp, when I stood under the blistering St. Joseph sun laughing at Tyreek Hill’s comparisons between Patrick Mahomes and every other human being who throws a football. Beyond all the amazing storylines for this game, this matchup should prove to be one of the better Super Bowls we’ve ever had. The Eagles certainly have a great team — but sometimes, it just comes down to being more battle-tested… and wanting it more. This Kansas City team has put together a very special season — one in which they have silenced many doubters along the way. So for me, it’s impossible to pick against them. Three Super Bowl appearances in four years. Two Super Bowl victories in three appearances. The golden era of Chiefs football. The beginning of a dynasty.

Chiefs 31, Eagles 27

Ties in the standings are broken with prediction points error — how much each prediction misses the actual point spread and the number of points scored by each team.

For the AFC Championship, “Playoff” Pete Sweeney turned in the best pick for the second straight week. His 24-23 prediction carried only six points of error — and marked his fourth win of the season. Tom Ruprecht’s 27-24 prediction was second with eight points of error.