The Chiefs’ 2024 free agency preview: Expect another year with plenty of turnover

Kansas City entered the offseason with 20 unrestricted free agents. How many will be back in 2024?

When we previewed Kansas City Chiefs’ free agency a year ago, we predicted that most of team’s free agents would play elsewhere. 10 of them did — although one of them returned for a walk-off Super Bowl win.

Under general manager Brett Veach and head coach Andy Reid, the Chiefs’ evolution continues. We’ve gone from explosive offense (2018) to rebuilt defense (2019) to #RunItBack (2020) to rebuilt offensive line (2021) to a rebuilding season (2022) and finally to a down year (2023). The last two unexpectedly resulted in back-to-back league titles to go along with Kansas City’s Super Bowl LIV victory and six consecutive AFC Championship appearances.

It’s safe to say the front office and coaching staff should have earned a lot of faith from Chiefs’ fans.

In 2024, Kansas City began the offseason with 20 unrestricted free agents — including arguably the two best players on one of the league’s best defenses. How will that shape the team’s plans?

Some decisions have already been made. Some plans are taking shape. Others are completely unknown. But it’s clearly going to be an exciting offseason as Kansas City gears up to meet a new goal: the Super Bowl era’s first three-peat.

Let’s take a look at how this could all shake out.

The headliners

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They are: CB L’Jarius Sneed, P Tommy Townsend and LB Willie Gay Jr.

Much to the joy of Chiefs fans, this list just got two names shorter. On Thursday, the team re-signed linebacker Drue Tranquill to a three-year deal — and then on Saturday night, re-signed All-Pro defensive tackle Chris Jones to a five-year contract. With these two moves alone, we should feel some confidence that 2023’s stellar defense will not take a big step backward in the coming season — or beyond.

One other decision may have already been made. It looks like Townsend will hit free agency. He’s been on a big-for-a-punter contract, but it appears the Chiefs aren’t willing to pay top-of-the-market again. Kansas City has signed Punt God Matt Araiza to bring his 80-yard kicks to GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium.

Predictions: After signing Jones to a monster deal, Kansas City trades Sneed for a second- round pick. He gets a new three-year deal worth around $55 million. Gay and Townsend move on to new teams.

The contributors

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They are: DE Michael Danna, T Donovan Smith, RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, WR Mecole Hardman, G Nick Allegretti and LS James Winchester

There are a couple of guys on this list that could get paid on the open market. Danna has quietly been a big contributor on the defensive line — and guys who can get to the quarterback are always in demand. Danna has 11.5 sacks over the last two seasons. Spotrac predicts his next contract could be worth $16.7 million per year.

Hardman came back from a frustrating six-game stretch with the New York Jets to make two of the biggest offensive plays in the Super Bowl. In that same game, Allegretti played well without his UCL. Could those efforts get them paid? Hardman’s public sparring with the Jets might not be helping his cause. But Allegretti should have a market — and intends to test that market by looking for a starting job.

Neither Smith or Edwards-Helaire were popular among Chiefs fans in 2023, but both could be relatively inexpensive options as the team fills out its roster.

Then there’s the other piece of the special-teams triad: long-snapper Winchester. Luckily, even the highest-paid long snapper doesn’t significantly move the salary-cap needle. If the Chiefs want him back, they can easily bring him in for his 10th season in Kansas City.

Predictions: Danna prices himself out of a return to the Chiefs, getting more than $10 million per year on the open market. Winchester and Hardman return on reasonable deals. Smith, Allegretti and Edwards-Helaire eventually find new homes.

The bargain-bin players

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They are: LB Darius Harris, S Mike Edwards, QB Blaine Gabbert, S Deon Bush, DT Derrick Nnadi, DT Tershawn Wharton, WR Richie James, RB Jerick McKinnon and TE Blake Bell

In this group, we find role players who had great moments for the team in its back-to-back Super Bowl titles. None should be cost-prohibitive for the Chiefs to re-sign — but they aren’t likely to be in such high demand that they’ll be signed elsewhere during the early days (or weeks) of free agency. Both Bell and McKinnon are on the wrong side of 30 years old, so they may have to see if Kansas City can find upgrades elsewhere before getting any offer to return. Wharton and Nnadi ate a lot of snaps on a very good defensive line. They might be candidates to return on reasonable deals to maintain depth at the position.

Predictions: Wharton and Nnadi return on low-cost deals. James, Harris, Bell, McKinnon and Bush test free agency, where they don’t find much of a market. Gabbert returns as Mahomes’ backup.