The Dobbins Dilemma

We’ve all heard and read the stories about running backs across the NFL jumping on a Zoom call to air grievances about the lack of respect their position receives when it comes to Friday paychecks. It’s not as if this is a recent development. The position has gradually been devalued for over a decade and despite the complaints from the game’s best rock toters, change isn’t likely to happen anytime soon.

Many will say that the devaluing of the RB position stems from an emphasis on the passing game. And to an extent, that is true. But there are other forces at play that suppress the earning power of players like Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs, Kareem Hunt and even on a local level, J.K. Dobbins. Among those forces are productive career longevity, analytics and the salary cap.

It’s no secret that the wear and tear on running backs is arguably the highest of all positions on the football field. The pounding that their bodies take is vicious and it takes a toll. The damage is oftentimes irreparable, and it diminishes the long-term effectiveness of RB’s. So, by the time a running back has played out his rookie deal and is up for that second and for most positions, most lucrative contract, the rules of engagement are different. When nearly every other position has a chance to cash in and establish generational wealth, running backs are treated like pre-owned gear on eBay; like stock in a company flirting with functional obsolescence; like a rapidly aging beauty queen.

The players who for years did all the dirty work and tortured their bodies, generally don’t see those big signing bonuses and mid-8-figure guarantees. Instead, they get what relatively speaking, seems like a company watch for years of service. And consequently, when the RB’s don’t get what they believe is their deserved bag, they feel cheated.

It’s quite the conundrum for the NFL’s top rushers.

Analytics have gradually crept into the way teams manage their rosters, design game plans and execute in-game strategies. Couple analytics with the salary cap and the result is 32 General Managers across the league trying to get the maximum return out of every cap dollar spent. Wasted cap dollars represent lost opportunities. The more lost opportunities, the more at risk at GM’s job is.

GM’s try their best to avoid investing exorbitant amounts of money in players who don’t perform to the level of their contracts. Employ too many players like that and it can tank a roster. And running backs on lucrative second contracts, are the most likely of all players whose productivity falls short of their W-2. The Rams experienced it with Todd Gurley; the Cowboys felt the pain with Ezekiel Elliott; and the Vikings expected it, most recently, with Dalvin Cook.

Adding to this dilemma that delivers heartburn to running backs league-wide, are the replacement costs associated with rookie RB’s. Rookie ball carriers, perhaps more than any other position, can often be far more economical plug and play options for teams looking to improve salary cap efficiencies.

And none of this is expected to change any time soon or ever. All the Zoom calls hosted by disgruntled NFL running backs is not going to change the fact that the current collective bargaining agreement runs for seven more seasons, through March of 2030. The salary cap is going nowhere. The league still plays tackle football and GM’s don’t want to risk spending significant portions of cap space on players who might not make it until the end of their contract. They’d rather use the cap space to beef up their offensive line where players do have lengthy careers to make it a bit easier for less accomplished running backs to provide the same productivity as star runners looking to cash in.

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Recently, Saquon Barkley answered questions about why he agreed to a one-year deal with the Giants:

“I understand. I know what’s going on with the running back situation and me being tagged, and the value of the running back continuing going down. The only way that I feel like that’s gonna change is someone’s gotta make a change, and God-willing, hopefully, I can be one of those people to do it.”

That said, Barkley, arguably the best among all of the game’s running backs broke ranks. The solidarity that RB’s hoped might be one of the outcomes of that Zoom call, crumbled when Barkley put his John Hancock to his new contract.

“Some people may agree or disagree with this”, Barkley admitted. “It’s a sit-out or a sit-in, and I feel like for this year specifically, the best thing that I can do for myself would be coming back, going out there and playing the game that I love, playing for my teammates, doing something that I wanted to do since I was a little kid.”

Closer to home, J.K. Dobbins’ gears are grinding with disdain. He remains understandably chapped about the severe ACL injury he sustained during the 2021 preseason that cost him the entire 2021 season and limited him in 2022. He’s played in just 23 of a possible 50 regular season games since being drafted in 2020. Clearly when healthy, he’s flashed his ability but his availability leaves much to be desired.

Dobbins will make $1,391,287 this season. If he wants that long-term extension, he’ll have to prove to the Ravens that he’s a dependable bell cow who can finish a season. But even then, a lucrative long-term deal isn’t guaranteed. Not in today’s market. Not when you’ve played in just 46% of games. Not when the league’s best can only manage a one-year, $10.1M deal with $900K in incentives with the New York Giants.

It’s the nature of the beast for running backs in the NFL.

No Zoom call or Dobbins’ “hold-in” will change that for the next seven seasons.

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