The Houston Texans, C.J. Stroud, and Davis Mills Flashbacks

Let’s take a quick walk down Davis Mills lane.

Yesterday, C.J. Stroud was awarded two more commendations for his historic rookie campaign: NFL Offensive Rookie of the Month (November) and AFC Offensive Player of the Month (November).

Yes, player of the month! Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, move to the side! There’s someone new in town.

…Okay, despite my exaggeration, there is now overwhelming evidence that this miraculous start to a career is less of a hot start and more typical. Last week’s loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars was Stroud’s sixth game with 300+ passing yards, his fifth game with a 100+ passer rating, and. his third game in four weeks where his completion percentage was over 70%. These kinds of stat lines are now something we can legitimately expect to see from a rookie quarterback, and it would now be exceptional if he were to not have a great game.

This is now Stroud’s second and third monthly awards of the season, his first coming in September when he was the first NFL Rookie of the Month of the season. A truly remarkable accomplishment, and a testament to just how many great games Stroud has had just 12 weeks into his professional career.

Every time C.J. Stroud has another one of these games, making his weekly miracle work look less like the exception and more like the norm, I am reminded of now backup quarterback Davis Mills’ performance against the Los Angeles Chargers in 2021. For some of you reading that may be new to Houston Texans fandom (Welcome!) and for the millions of football fans that practically ignored the Texans from 2020 to now, Davis Mills was the Houston Texans’ starting quarterback before C.J. Stroud, playing the majority of the snaps during the 2022 season after a hot finish to his 2021 rookie season. That 2021 rookie season, Davis Mills looked much like he has all of his career – haphazard, slow, occasionally exciting, but always inaccurate – until the last few weeks. Before the end of the season, Mills was like fool’s gold, his best performance coming from desperate heaves to then Texans’ receivers Chris Moore and Chris Conley led him to three touchdown passes and a near-victory against the New England Patriots.

This was basically the only positive tape Mills would cook up all season until December 26, 2021, when the Los Angeles Chargers’ defense made him look like the second coming of Joe Burrow. Against the Chargers, Davis Mills passed for 254 yards and two touchdowns and had a 130.6 passer rating. This game completely changed the narrative for Mills, and then the season finale against the Tennessee Titans put the offseason hype into full steam. In that game, Davis Mills followed up his Chargers performance with a 301-yard, three touchdown performance where he had a 128.5 passer rating. All of the sudden, the Houston Texans had found this diamond-in-the-rough quarterback that finished his rookie year on a heater. Davis Mills was no longer some forgotten backup on an awful team, he was a surprisingly talented prospect that had pundits to prove wrong in 2022!

Those two games were all he needed to get me and many other Texans fans fully strapped in for the Davis Mills Experience for all of the next year, regardless of the surrounding turmoil. Well, another year and another rookie quarterback later, I think it’s safe to say we were wrong for betting on Davis Mills. That shocking Chargers game never amounted to anything more than a full season of watching Mills snatch defeat out of the jaws of victory again, and again, and again. But, he still had those great performances. He still proved himself as an NFL quarterback on a poor roster. He still was, given context, far better than the vast majority of people expected after he was taken in the 3rd round of the 2021 NFL Draft – Nick Caserio’s first draft selection as the Houston Texans’ general manager. His stats were largely unimpressive for the year, but still very comparable to the other rookie passers of 2021.

And how could we forget this infamous graphic:

This is how we got to 15 games of Davis Mills in 2022. He was just good enough to keep you believing. So, if Davis Mills was good enough in those couple of games to be a starter in 2022, how do his stats compare to C.J. Stroud?

C.J. STROUD, First 11 Games: 3266 Yards, 19 TDs, 5 INTs, 63.7 CMP%, 100.8 Passer Rating, 8.7 Adjusted Yards per Attempt.

Davis Mills, First 11 Games: 2200 Yards, 12 TDs, 9 INTs, 66.57 CMP%, 86.2 Passer Rating, 6.19 Adjusted Yards per Attempt.

Davis Mills, 2022 Full Season Stats: 3118 Yards, 17 TDs, 15 INTs, 61.0 CMP%, 78.8 Passer Rating, 5.8 Adjusted Yards per Attempt.

What a difference a year can make! Now, don’t get me wrong, these are very impressive stats from Davis Mills, and he rightfully deserved the comparisons to his fellow quarterbacks taken in the first round of the 2021 Draft. Pretty darn good first draft pick by Nick Caserio, but the difference between Mills and Stroud is night and day. Stroud is averaging 269.9 yards a game to Mills 200 in 2021. He’s already completely leaped over all of Davis Mills’ stats for the entirety of 2022, and there’s still six games left! Now, obviously there was a lot more expected of Stroud than Mills at the beginning of their NFL careers, but this comparison really puts into perspective just how different this new era in Texans history Stroud has launched us into.

I bring up Davis Mills, the Chargers game, and reopen the scabbed-over wounds of 2022 not just to gawk at the comparison, but to show how far this team has come in just a year. In just a single year the Houston Texans have completely flipped their fortune, primarily because of a rookie quarterback, who is playing in front of an offensive line that has lost five players to season ending injuries.

After that Chargers game in 2021, a kernel of hope began to blossom within me that the Texans would not be terrible in 2022, but ahead of schedule. Maybe it wouldn’t be a good season, but it would be one that shows foundational improvement, and Davis Mills’ growth in year two would make sure of that. I was wrong, 2022 was an intensely disappointing season for the Texans and Davis Mills right from the start, ruining any sort of momentum they could’ve carried from last year.

But, I wasn’t the only one that was pining for Davis Mills! Many a Texans fan were swept off their feet just like me after his Chargers game, hoping that he could usher in some optimism for a team that quickly went from AFC contender in 2019 to laughing stock in 2021. He was a legitimately good quarterback for flashes of his career, and made us believe that the road back to contention might not be as bumpy as it appears. Well, in 2023, it may not have been what we expected, but our wish has been granted. And you wouldn’t believe who we have to thank for this: oh yes, it’s Davis Mills:

On fourth & 20 in the 2022 season finale, Davis Mills launched himself into Texans lore when he threw the game winning touchdown pass against the Indianapolis Colts. This victory bumped Houston down the second overall pick in 2023 NFL Draft, which is where they would select their future MVP, C.J. Stroud.

I guess Davis Mills really does work in miracles.