30 Scenarios in 30 Days: The Steelers will hold opponents to under 20 points a game

In the new “30 Scenarios in 30 Days” series, we break down situations which could take place for the Steelers in 2021.

The Pittsburgh Steelers are preparing for the 2021 regular season, but before the real games begin, the team has to head to training camp to fine tune their skills. As we here at BTSC prepare you for the start of camp, we give you a series called “30 Scenarios in 30 Days” which gives you a Steelers scenario every day leading up to the start of camp.

It is simple how it works. We provide you the scenario, reasons why it will or won’t happen, and then our prediction for what we think will take place.

Let’s get to the scenario…

Scenario: The Steelers will hold opponents to under 20 points a game

Steelers points surrendered per game:

2020: 19.5 ppg
2019: 18.94 ppg
2018: 22.5 ppg
2017: 19.25 ppg
2016: 20.44 ppg
2015: 19.94 ppg
2014: 23.0 ppg
2013: 23.13 ppg
2012: 19.63 ppg
2011: 14.19 ppg
2010: 14.5 ppg

Why it will happen: Just look at what the Steelers generally do on defense. This is their calling card. While many are really down on the Steelers going into the 2021 season, they are forgetting that there is a lot of this defense still intact as well as the return of Devin Bush. Every loss the Steelers defense had from 2020 was a calculated loss, meaning they knew what their alternatives were while making their decisions and chose not to keep certain players. Seeing this defense completely fall off a cliff this year would be a surprise.

Why it won’t happen: The Steelers went from one of the easiest schedules in 2020 to the most difficult one for 2021 based off of last year‘s records. But not all things are created equal simply looking at records. For example, the opponents the Steelers played last year and do not play this season actually gave up less points on defense than the new teams they will face in 2021. But when looking at points scored per game, this is where it actually shows the difficult task at hand for 2021. The Steelers new opponents for this coming season averaged 26.86 points per game while those opponents from 2020 they do not face this season only scored 22.19 points per game.

Prediction: This is a tough one. While the number of 20 is not historically unreasonable for this defense, they are taking on some pretty prolific offenses in 2021. This statistic may ultimately determine the success of the 2021 Steelers, but getting below 20 might not be the standard for success. If this defense carries the way and wins the “strength on strength” matchups week after week, they could keep their average under 20 points. But against some of the teams they are playing, keeping them under 20 may not be the case but yet they still can pull off a victory. To ultimately make a decision, I’m going to have to say the defense is still impressive and the driving force behind winning games, but they give up over 20 points a game.

Check out yesterday’s ‘30 Scenarios in 30 Days’ prediction:

Be sure to stay tuned to BTSC for the latest news and notes surrounding the black and gold as they prepare for the 2021 regular season.