The Value of Things: Potential Texans second round draft options

What is the history of RB and WR in round two?

As we continue our journey before the draft, we continue looking at the history of draft selections and their relative success. Someone wise along the way said that past was prologue. In other words, the past can help predict the future. The Houston Texans have no first rounders as of this writing, but they do have two second rounders.

Fortunately, if the season started today, the Texans could throw out a starting lineup on offense and defense capable of winning more games than it loses. That wasn’t true last year and in most seasons. So, when they do pick they have more options available to them. They can pick a position of relative weakness like defensive tackle, cornerback, linebacker, or safety. They can purely go best player available and just go with the highest rated player on the board regardless of position. They can also start planning for the future beyond 2025.

This is where running back and wide receiver come in as positions. The Texans are well-manned in both spots when looking at starters. Yet, four of the top five receivers currently on the roster are set to become free agents following 2024. Meanwhile, the Texans can feel good about Joe Mixon at running back, but who is backing him up?

I honestly don’t think Nick Caserio is reading this article or any like them. He is not doing in-depth study on the past because they have to do the work of evaluating current prospects. I wouldn’t expect anything less. That being said, we can certainly do that work and give a report on the likely success of each position.

To do that, we went back to the 2010 through 2019 period and looked just at second round running backs and wide receivers. We tracked through the number of Pro Bowls they attended, the number of seasons they were labeled as starters according to Pro Football Reference. We also looked at their weighted average value. It is a system the site uses to grade the contributions of a player. They are given points for each season they are on a roster, each season they are a starter, and when they reach certain statistical thresholds.

As you might imagine, most of these players had weighted average values (WAV) of ten or more. Few had WAVs of 40 or more. So, we are labeling anyone with a WAV of five or less as a relative bust and any player with 40 or more as a highly successful selection. Most players landed in between those two extremes.

Running Backs

26 running backs were taken in the second round between 2010 and 2019. Most of those players have retired, so we can feel pretty good about the numbers we are looking at. The highlight of the group would have to be Derrick Henry as he will likely go into the Hall of Fame when he is done playing. Ironically enough, Joe Mixon might end up being the second best running back from the second round in that decade.

Total Players: 26
Total Pro Bowls: 14 (0.54 per player)
Total Years as a Starter: 45 (1.73 per player)
Total WAV: 559 (21.5 per player)
40+ WAV: 5 (19.2%)
5 WAV or Less: 6 (23.1%)

To give everyone an idea, Ben Tate had a WAV of 14 without any seasons as a starter or Pro Bowler. Most analysts considered him a bust, but he wouldn’t come close to being a bust with the way we are keeping score. So, you really have to be worthless to reach the level of those six guys.

On the flip side, those top five guys are all household names. They include Henry, Mixon, Le’veon Bell, Giovanni Bernard, and Dalvin Cook. So, if you take a second round running back it would appear that if we are to believe these numbers then you have a one in five chance of drafting a long-term, productive starter at the position. Depending on your definition, you could include Miles Sanders (31), Carlos Hyde (32), and Eddie Lacy (36). That would give you nearly a one in three chance of getting a productive starter at the position.

Wide Receivers

Ironically, no position is more loaded on offense than wide receiver, but the needs could be more acute long-term. Stefon Diggs, Nico Collins, Noah Brown, and Robert Woods will all be free agents. The 2025 receiver core could be a picture of Tank Dell holding a football with the caption “I got this.”

Total Players: 43
Total Pro Bowls: 30 (0.70 per player)
Total Years as a Starter: 138 (3.21 per player)
Total WAV: 1316 (30.6 per player)
40+ WAV: 15 (34.9%)
5 WAV or Less: 4 (9.3%)

To be perfectly fair, most teams have three regular wide receivers versus one running back. So, these numbers have to be taken in that context, but if we look at 40+ guys as potential Hall of Famers we would have to look at A.J. Brown, Michael Thomas, and Davante Adams. Thomas still has a lot of work to do and there are a few other guys that are still active that could jumpstart their chances with strong seasons.

It appears that John Metchie (although selected after 2019) could end up as an example of someone we could label as a bust. Of course, that label doesn’t account for why he has not succeeded up until now. That’s the problem with labels. They don’t explain why these players succeeded or did not succeed.

All that being said, it would appear that based on the numbers, you are more likely to hit on a receiver in the second round than a running back. I’m not sure if that plays into the thinking at all. It always depends on an individual player’s grade and how the team thinks he fits into their system.

Final Thoughts

Depending on what is on the board, I would like to see one of these two positions get chosen in the second round on Friday night. Last year showed you cannot have too many talented players at any position and 2025 free agency looks a lot better if you have a talented young player ready to take one of those slots. Most experts seem to think it is a better draft for receivers, so that might be the direction they go. I think the odds are better than average that they want up with players from both positions before the draft is concluded on Saturday afternoon.