The Value of Things: Texans Drafts by the numbers

Part one of a three part series

The NFL draft is arguably the biggest event in the NFL offseason and the most important ways for teams to build their rosters. So, one of these articles is not enough to break down the draft. I’m going to use three. Others will look at the current prospects and what to expect from the Houston Texans. I like to take a more historical view. In each instance, I will use a grading system to rate prospects historically and then take an aggregate score.

Each player can earn somewhere between one and four stars. One-star players are players that either don’t make the team or have minimal impact. Two-star players remain on the team for multiple seasons but may or may not player regularly if at all. Three-star players are either starters or established rotational players and four-star players are Pro-Bowl-type performers.

We can do this two ways. We can start in the general and move to a more focused look or we can do the opposite. I am starting with Nick Caserio’s three drafts and moving to Texans history overall and then league norms. We can start with some basics and then start to parse out round by round for Caserio’s drafts.

Four-Star Players

I am giving out only four of these over the course of three seasons. They would include C.J. Stroud, Will Anderson, Derek Stingley, and Nico Collins. Some would argue that Tank Dell should be there. However, his injury prevented him frim from being a Pro Bowl player and concerns over durability are the reason he slipped to the third round in the first place

It should be noted that not only were three of four of these taken in the first round, but those players were all taken in the top three. It is important to hit on your high end selections and doing so is the fastest way to get from last place to playoff contention, but the Texans don’t have any of those selections this time around.

Collins is an interesting test case. He would have been a two or three star player coming into the season, but obviously took a huge step forward. That’s why there is a time element to these evaluations. If we come back next year, many of these same guys will have different grades based on what happens. The Texans have nine selections in this draft so basic math would dictate they shouldn’t expect more than one Pro Bowl performer.

Three-Star Players

I count five three star players on the Texans board the last three seasons. Again, these can fluctuate depending on what happens. Dameon Pierce might have been a three or even four star player after his rookie season, but would not qualify there now. This includes the likes of Jalen Pitre, Christian Harris, Juice Scruggs, Tank Dell, and Jarrett Patterson,

I’m almost certain that Scruggs and/or Patterson will take a step back this year. I don’t see both of them playing, but it might give someone like Kenyon Green a chance to get a bump. So, all of it comes out in a wash. Tank Dell has the best chance of becoming a four star guy off of this list, but some people think Pitre could evolve as well.

The good news is that none of these guys were first rounders. So, there is hope to get solid starters/rotational players after the first round. The bad news is that the numbers would seem to indicate that you can’t expect much more than one of these guys in this particular draft based on historical precedent.

Two-Star Players

This is a hard category to define. You have guys that are on the team but make a minimal impact towards winning. That could include some guys that just haven’t become rotational players yet or guys that were rotational players when the team was bad. Eight of the selections from the past three seasons end up on this list. Again, the run the gamut.

The two biggest names are Davis Mills and Dameon Pierce. I know any grade will be a controversial one for either guy. We really don’t know what to make of Pierce yet as he was great in year one and terrible in year two. I suppose we could take the aggregate, but even that seems unsatisfactory. Meanwhile, Mills started a ton of games but just wasn’t very good.

We could talk in circles on these names, but I’m afraid I’d get dizzy and then throw up in the bushes. They include guys like Kenyon Green, Brevin Jordan, Teagan Quitoriano, John Metchie, Xavier Hutchinson, and Henry To’oTo’o. Based on numbers, we can expect three of these selections to fall into this category.

One-Star Players

Quite simply, these are guys that are no longer Texans. They may have done some things or not, but they aren’t doing them now. Six names appear on the list and they include Garrett Wallow, Roy Lopez, Thomas Booker, Austin Deculus, Dylan Horton, and Brandon Hill.

Whether or not they are busts depends heavily on where they were selected and the circumstances of their release. Dylan Horton may play football again, but he is dealing with cancer and so is not currently a part of the team. Guys like Hill, Booker, and Lopez were sixth and seventh round selections and those guys should be long shots

There is no one on the list above that screams draft bust, but there could be some additional names there after this upcoming training camp. We always have to remember that any analysis is a snapshot in time and that snapshot changes when the times change.

Overall Caserio History

Caserio has made 23 selections. That is hardly a definitive history and that is the reason why we will have two more pieces in this series. First, we will show the breakdowns by the number of stars they have and then we will look at individual rounds to get an idea of Caserio’s own personal draft history.

Four Stars: 17.4% (1.53 selections out of 9)
Three Stars: 21.7% (1.95 selections out of 9)
Two Stars: 34.8% (3.13 selections out of 9)
One Star: 26.1% (2.35 selections out of 9)

Of course, when these guys were selected matters since we traded out of the first round, so let’s take a look at the expectations by round to see if we can pinpoint exactly what we can expect from a fourth Caserio draft. I hate small sample sizes, but we work with the data we have.

First Round: 3.50 stars (four selections)
Second Round: 2.67 stars (three selections)
Third Round: 3.00 stars (four selections)
Fourth Round: 1.50 stars (two selections)
Fifth Round: 1.60 stars (five selections)
Sixth Round: 1.75 stars (four selections)
Seventh Round: 1.00 stars (one selection)

As someone that even dabbles in statistics regularly, I cannot let this stand without further study. The Texans do better in round three than round two. Is that true historically of the franchise? Are they really better in round six than the are rounds four and five? We will have to stay tuned until next time because we can’t simply trust these numbers at face value or go based on our memory.