The Value of Things: Texans Optimism for C.J. Stroud?

What does history tell us about year two?

Teams can add free agents and new rookies all they want, but free agency hardly ever throws a team over the top. Obviously, we saw last season that new rookies can pay immediate dividends when it comes to a team making a huge jump in the standings. Arguably though, the number one factor in teams getting better is when existing players take the next step in their development.

This is the main reason why we wait three or four years before evaluating a draft. Players like Nico Collins don’t necessarily produce right away. Moreover, the 2023 season story can’t be told without those guys. Players like Collins and Derek Stingley Jr. took huge steps forward. In order for the Houston Texans to take the next step they will need someone that has already been on the roster to take that next step in development. Ideally, they will need several of those guys.

The normal course for rookie quarterbacks is to struggle and then develop over time. Plus, guys like Aaron Rodgers and Jordan Love had to sit for a few years before getting their opportunity. Yet, there have been numerous quarterbacks currently active that were good from jump.

Did they take the next step in year two? The working hypothesis would naturally point to progression. Certainly, I’m sure their coaches would all agree they did progress and I have no reason to dispute their claim. Still, we are looking at statistical progression. We obviously have the forces of improvement that are directly opposed to opposing defenses figuring guys out. We need to see which side is right before projecting Stroud’s second year.

Methodology

Any time you set up an experiment you have to set some ground rules before crunching the data. In my head, I never know what I’m going to find before searching it out. If I did then I could tailor the experiment to get the results that I want. I want genuine results and not ones I manufacture.

I found eight starting quarterbacks that had quarterback ratings of 90 or above in their first full season as a starter. So, I simply took that player’s passing yards per game, touchdown percentage, interception percentage, completion percentage, and quarterback rating. We are simply comparing the aggregate year one with the aggregate year two. Did these quarterbacks see actual statistical improvement?

The Actual Results

Year One: 236.5 YPG, 6.6 TD%, 1.9 INT%, 65.4 PCT, 104.0 RTG
Year Two: 252.7 YPG, 5.9 TD%, 2.1 INT%, 65.2 PCT, 100.9 RTG
C.J. Stroud: 273.9 YPG, 4.6 TD%, 1.0 INT%, 63.9 PCT, 100.8 RTG

We see two undeniable facts here. First, what Stroud did last year was relatively rare but not unprecedented. He exists fairly comfortably with this group of eight quarterbacks. Guys like Joe Burrow, Matthew Stafford, and Tua Tagovailoa did not qualify because they didn’t get to a 90 rating in their first year. Obviously Josh Allen and Derek Carr didn’t get there either. So, Stroud is in impressive company, but he’s not on a mountain by himself.

The second undeniable fact is that with the exception of passing yards, these guys were not better in year two than they were in year one. Why? Obviously the biggest factor are defensive coordinators figuring out their tendencies. Other factors affected each guy individually that might not impact Stroud directly. The Texans have added more talent. They went through a ton of injuries. So, there is obvious reason for optimism.

Projecting C.J. Stroud

These projections are based only on the percentage increase or decrease in the numbers of the rest of these quarterbacks. So, we will call this an over/under and allow you to make your bets in the comments. Are you feeling bullish on Stroud? All numbers are assuming he plays sixteen of the 17 games and throws the same number of passes per game that he did a year ago.

Passing Yards: 4,683
Touchdowns: 22
Interceptions: 6
Completion Percentage: 63.7
Rating: 97.7

I know everyone reading this article won’t let me off the hook. So, I will make my own bets while you make yours in the comments. The yardage feels right to me in those sixteen games. It comes in at a shade over 290 yards a game, so you could add for a 17th game or subtract if you want to do the same 15 games as last season.

The touchdowns feel low primarily because I think they will end up passing more over the course of the full season. I see 25 touchdowns as a more realistic target for him and will be interested to see what the handicappers set his number at. The interceptions and rating feel about right. I think he will throw an interception or two more this season just because he had some dumb luck last season. That will undoubtedly lower that rating a little.

Out of all the numbers, I feel the completion percentage is most out of whack. I would target him at 66 or 67 percent because I think receivers will get more open and there will hopefully be fewer drops than last season. I’ve placed my bets. Now let’s see what you have.