Value of Things: Should the Texans sign Saquon Barkley?

Comparing Barkley to another top back.

Momentum is an overpowering thing. A mob mentality often takes over this time of year. We hear stories about C.J. Stroud recruiting Saquon Barkley and hear stories about him following every Texan on Instagram and suddenly it feels like an inevitability. Saquon Barkley likely will become a Houston Texan. We will throw a ticker tape parade and give him the key to the city in a ceremony so rich with pomp and circumstance you’d think Walter Payton or Jim Brown was resurrected from the dead and turned into a 27-year-old version of their former selves.

All sarcasm aside, there is little doubt that Barkley would be an improvement in terms of pure skill level over what the Houston Texans previously have employed. If the Texans should add him, he would be the most skilled back in their history with the exception of Arian Foster. However, would he be worth the money? Would he be a top five overall running back in this offensive system with this offensive line?

We looked at the numbers for him in my last Value of Things as compared to the other free agent running backs. There can be no doubt that he would be better than Devin Singletary. That’s not really the question. The question is whether he would be better than the likes of Josh Jacobs, Derrick Henry, or even Austin Ekeler. However, we will leave that aside today and compare him with another running back already under contract.

The name that keeps getting thrown around with Barkley is Christian McCaffrey. He is a proficient runner and receiver out of the backfield as Barkley is reported to be. He went to a Shanahan system and flourished both in terms of yards and touchdowns, but also health and durability. So, let’s ignore the San Francisco 49ers numbers and simply compare Barkley to the numbers McCaffrey put up with the Carolina Panthers. Neither team has been good while those players were there, so we won’t be prejudicing ourselves with looking at the quality of the team, coaching, or offensive line play.

Basic Numbers

McCaffrey— 74.4% games, 866 carries, 3,980 yards, 32 TD, 390 catches, 3,292 yards, 18 TD
Barkley— 75.5% games, 1,201 carries, 5,211 yards, 35 TD, 288 catches, 2,100 yards, 12 TD

At first blush this looks promising. You could argue that Barkley has been more durable. He played in a slightly higher percentage of games and had far more touches in those games than McCaffrey. He did play in ten more games during his span, so the touches per game are a lot closer than what they would appear here. Plus, you have 47 versus 50 touchdowns. Maybe there is some hope that the comparison is apt.

Unfortunately, simplistic comparisons like this simply won’t do. If they would then any of us could do what Nick Caserio does and he’d be doing what I do. Instead, we have to dig a little deeper and look at some of this based on rates and ratios. How proficient was each running back on a per carry or per touch basis?

Proficiency Stats

McCaffrey— 4.60 yards per carry, 8.44 yards per reception, 5.79 yards per touch
Barkley— 4.34 yards per carry, 7.29 yards per reception, 4.58 yards per touch

The key for any statistic is frame of reference. I hate it when people do it at work as well as when people do it in sports. Joe Blow scored a 633 on XYZ test. That’s great. What does it mean? I could crunch the numbers and look at Barkley as compared to the average. Even then, I couldn’t tell you how a normal running back would function with Daniel Jones and that offensive line in front.

What we can say is that even before he went to San Francisco, McCaffrey was a more productive back. We also know that the Panthers had a .391 winning percentage during McCaffrey’s run in Carolina. That translates to roughly between a 6-11 season and a 7-10 season. The Giants had a .348 winning percentage during that same period. That’s a 6-11 season on average. So, the New York Giants were a little worse, but it’s not enough of a difference to explain the differences in production on its own.

Insanely Complex Statistics

McCaffrey— 50.5% rushing success rate, 55.2% receiving success rate, 52.2% all touches
Barkley— 42.5% rushing success rate, 38.1% receiving success rate, 41.4% all touches

Again, we can compare Barkley with the other guys using the same numbers. Without doing that we can simply say that comparing him to Christian McCaffrey seems to be an overly simplistic and foolish endeavor. We might also conclude that comparing anyone to McCaffrey is a waste of time. However, we are getting ahead of ourselves yet again. What exactly does success rate mean?

Simply put, it is the number of times a run or pass would gain the positive yards needed to move the chains. So, for either it would be translated as four yards or more because three plays of four yards would produce the first down. The Texans need a back that will churn out positive yards more often than not. Even totals are misleading because one 20 or 30 yard run makes you look like the running game is being successful. The Texans had far too many carries that got stuffed at the line. It is fair to ask whether Barkley would be a vast improvement. If he ends up being the back we can do a deeper dive.

Putting it all together

On the Simpson’s, there was one episode where Homer joined a Barbershop Quartet called the “B Sharps”. The idea was to come up with a name that would initially be hilarious but would lose its punch after multiple repeats. Saquon Barkley is the B sharps of the running back market. You say his name once and initially there is a ton of excitement. When you dive into the numbers deeper and deeper there is less and less excitement.

I am not a scout or a football coach. I haven’t broken down a ton of New York Giants tape. There is a distinct possibility that he has a skill set that could be exploited much more effectively in Houston than it was in New York. I’m almost certain there is truth to that assertion. That also could be said of Josh Jacobs, Derrick Henry, or even Austin Ekeler. What we do know is that his numbers aren’t nearly as special as they seemed at first, so paying him top of the running back market money doesn’t seem like a wise investment. I could be wrong and if the Texans end up signing him I hope I am wrong.