Value of Things: Texans intrigue in free agency

Draft maneuvering could lead to something bigger.

Nick Caserio has been a busy boy. There were two key moves that happened today that in concert could mean something much bigger. The Houston Texans traded a first and seventh rounder for a second and sixth rounder this year along with a second round pick next year. The deal seems confusing on its face, but there are two considerations involved. First, the extra picks are now available to be dealt for something else. Secondly, the forfeiture of a first rounder lowers the amount they have to save for the rookie salary pool.

That is even more important following the second news item of the day. The Texans also reworked Shaq Mason’s contract to clear up more cap room. Neither story has come with details necessary to pinpoint exactly how much Some experts have speculated that the Texans have about 30 million available cap money. They could conceivably also restructure Laremy Tunsil if they need more, but we can let the speculation begin.

Option One: Texans trade the second and sixth round pick for Tee Higgins

Higgins has asked for a trade after being tagged with the non-exclusive tag. That ends up being a salary a little over 21 million annually which the Texans can afford now with the extra room they just reworked. Obviously, with any deal we can evaluate the specifics later. This is idle speculation and idle speculation only. A plus B does not always equal C. It isn’t enough to say they need a third receiver and are making room for another wide receiver.

The positives are obvious. He already has been an excellent robin to another Batman. That would make him a robin to Nico Collins. It also means that they could likely let Robert Woods go which would save another six million under the cap. The negatives are that he is only contract for one season, so you would be right back in this pickle next offseason. If you extend him then you likely won’t be able to afford an extension for Collins.

Option Two: Texans trade the second and sixth round pick for Stefon Diggs

Diggs has supposedly made some noise about wanting out of Buffalo. Furthermore, they have already made some moves to clear salary off the books. Could they be tempted to get some extra draft capital to start over? They already lost Gabe Davis, so this one seems a little more far-fetched, but the need for another target still stands and if Diggs forces the issue something could happen.

The positives are that Diggs is signed through 2027. He is also used to be a high volume target from one of the best quarterbacks in the league. C.J. Stroud might be one of the few QBs out there close to Allen’s level. The bad news is that it would make affording Collins much more difficult and Diggs is a lot closer to the end of his prime than he is to the beginning. He might have only one or two more prime years left before he starts to seriously lose a step.

Option Three: Texans trade the second and sixth rounder for Jeffrey Simmons

The Texans lost both of their starting defensive tackles from this past season. DeMeco Ryans has said he wanted to seriously upgrade his defensive line. Adding someone like Simmons would give the Texans three Pro Bowl caliber players Like Diggs he is also signed to a long-term deal, so you would just be assuming the yearly salary and not the signing bonus. He is fairly affordable for the next two seasons until the contract escalates in the last two seasons.

The positives are obvious. Having three starters on the defensive line and four regular rotation players that can get after the quarterback is awfully enticing. You could credibly claim the Texans could be a top five defensive immediately. The downside is that you would be investing nearly a quarter of your cap in the defensive line even before Will Anderson’s rookie contract is up.

Option Four: Stick and Pick

This seems to be the least appetizing of the four options on the table. After all, you could have simply kept the first rounder and at least gotten a better draft prospect. Somewhere along the line, Caserio and his scouts made a calculation. Every team talks about drafting the best player available, but that’s rarely ever literally the case. After all, the Texans aren’t taking a quarterback, offensive tackle, or defensive end this early. They will narrow it down to a position of need.

As we look at the roster, there are probably four such positions. In no particular order, they could use a cornerback, defensive tackle, wide receiver, and probably another tight end. Linebacker might be on that list as well. It could have simply been a calculation that there was little difference at those particular spots between the 23rd and 42nd pick. In that case, you lose little and gain a second rounder next season.

Keeping the pick gives you an opportunity to use two second rounders on two of those four of five holes. The positives are obvious. If you hit on them then you fill two holes with players you have cost control over for four years. Then, that extra ten to 15 million dollars gets saved and used elsewhere. The downside is that rookies are unpredictable. The Texans have a disastrous track record in the second round. So, expecting either of those picks to turn into rotational players could be a stretch.

Putting it all together

The Texans have a clear two year window before C.J. Stroud and Will Anderson start getting expensive. The signing of Danielle Hunter clearly leaned directly into that fact. Using one of your second rounders to broker a deal for a veteran would also do that. We can analyze the individual players involved in a subsequent piece, but it is clear that they are at least exploring the possibility. It is an exciting time to be a Texans fan.