Value of Things: Who would be the Texans number one receiver?

A deeper look at Texans trade options.

Last time we took a look at a couple of potentially appealing trade options for the Texans at wide receiver. In particular, Tee Higgins and Stefon Diggs have been mentioned as potential targets for the Texans and Nick Caserio. The Texans have the money and the draft capital to make it happen and while the fan base would be energized by such a move, would it make sense on the field?

One of the problems with evaluating players in a team sport like football is that the numbers aren’t necessarily portable like baseball. You can’t simply add their numbers to the numbers of the guys returning. When one player is targeted it means the others are not. True number one receivers have a way of sucking out the oxygen out of a room. There is a reason why the Texans struggled to have two productive receivers when Andre Johnson and Deandre Hopkins were at their peak.

So, the basic numbers are important, but we want to look more closely at the catch percentages, yards per target, and success rates for the receivers. In essence, the question is whether the Texans already have a number one receiver in Houston. So, we will compare Nico Collins with those two for not only their career but also the 2023 season.

Basic Numbers

Nico Collins Career: 235 targets, 150 catches, 2,224 yards, 11 TD
Nico Collins 2023: 109 targets, 80 catches, 1,297 yards, 8 TD

Stefon Diggs Career: 1,178 targets, 810 catches, 9,995 yards, 67 TD
Stefon Diggs 2023: 160 targets, 107 catches, 1,183 yards, 8 TD

Tee Higgins Career: 413 targets, 257 catches, 3,684 yards, 24 TD
Tee Higgins 2023; 76 targets, 42 catches, 656 yards, 5 TD

These are three different guys. Collins was definitely the bell cow last season, but he didn’t do much in his first two seasons. So, was that a factor of being in bad offense with bad quarterback play or did he just take a step forward? It also could be that he had one of those magical seasons that happens once in a guy’s career. If you think he is a number one receiver then he will eventually be paid like one.

Diggs certainly has been that guy and is a heavy volume receiver. He is a perfect example of the fact that simply looking at catches and yards isn’t as impactful as you think it might be. He was targeted on nearly a third of the Bills’ pass attempts in the games he played. Even a mediocre receiver would have a ton of catches in that environment.

Higgins has been playing with JaMarr Chase, so he is used to being a complementary piece. He is being paid like a number one though. It is possible that he could take a step forward when given more responsibility, but we need to look at the efficiency rates to see if that would make the Texans a better football team.

Rate Statistics

Nico Collins Career: 63.8 catch%, 9.5 YPT, 52.8 success rate
Nico Collins 2023: 73.4 catch%, 11.9 YPT, 61.5 success rate

Stefon Diggs Career: 68.8 catch%, 8.5 YPT, 57.6 success rate
Stefon Diggs 2023: 66.9 catch%, 7.4 YPT, 55.0 success rate

Tee Higgins Career: 63.8 catch%, 9.1 YPT, 58.6 success rate
Tee Higgins 2023: 55.3 catch%, 8.6 YPT, 53.9 success rate

There are lies, damn lies, and statistics. These numbers have any number of implications. The obvious answer is that Collins was better in 2023 than either Diggs or Higgins. However, obvious answers always deserve context. Collins’ efficiency numbers took huge jumps last season in addition to the volume numbers. It would seem obvious that the improvement of the offense and C.J. Stroud specifically had a great deal to do with that.

Higgins in particular spent half of his games last season taking passes from a backup quarterback. So, maybe looking at his 2020-2022 numbers would be more instructive with Joe Burrow at the helm. Diggs is obviously a different story. He had Josh Allen the whole time and still saw a dip in the numbers last season. Is that because he is getting older or is it because the offense sputtered for the first half of the season?

So, a part of the calculus is determining whether the Bobby Slowik offense is more efficient than the Bills or Bengals offense overall. If that is the case then both receivers would see a bump in efficiency when moving to Houston. If that isn’t the case then the Texans would be better sticking with Collins as their number one guy.

Per 15 game numbers

Nico Collins Career: 90 targets, 58 catches, 855 yards, 4 TD
Nico Collins 2023: 104 targets, 80 catches, 1,297 yards, 8 TD
Stefon Diggs: 130 targets, 89 catches, 1,102 yards, 7 TD
Tee Higgins: 104 targets, 66 catches, 953 yards, 6 TD

We included the two different Collins numbers because the career per 15 data is a seriously deflated. He won’t have Davis Mills throwing to him with David Culley calling the plays. So, if we believe the 2023 numbers are more representative of who he is then the Texans need to save their money and pay him. They can get another complimentary receiver in the draft or a lesser receiver in free agency that can simply be better than Robert Woods.