Week 10 Opposing QB: An analysis of Mac Jones

Thanks to the nflFastR project and NFL NextGen Stats for the timely sources of data.

For those of you new to this, I will publish key QB stats each week judging how well the upcoming opponent QB has performed. Yes, O-Line, receivers, and play-calling impact these numbers but they are primarily QB measures. I will probably modify the charts throughout the season. Commentary will be brief but feel free to let me know in the comments that stats aren’t everything. (click charts for larger view)

Mac Jones is in his 3rd season as the New England starter. So, how is he doing?

DASHBOARD

• This year, he has faced easier than average passing defenses (20th opd).
• The Patriots run an offense that favors the pass and has less than average success on the ground (11th edp, 18th arsr).
• Jones has not been pressured much, but that is almost 100% due to him getting rid of the ball very quickly (28th pr%, 30th ttt) as opposed to relying on an O-line that ranks dead last in Pass Block Win Rate.
• Those quick passes, result in short target depths (23rd adot).
• His accuracy has been very poor and so those short attempts result in even shorter completions (31st cpoe, 29th ay/c)
• Short passes usually get good YAC. So, while the Pats’ receivers are managing above average YAC, when adjusted for target depth, they actually earn less than expected (14th yac, 18th yacoe) and that keeps his yardage efficiency low (28th ypa).
• Since he’s getting rid of the ball and the pressure is not reaching him, his abandoned play rate is very low (30th aa%). This gets his bet yards per drop back closer to the average QB, but it is still very poor (28th ny/d).
• With such short yardage, it’s not surprising that he isn’t getting first downs or TDs (25th 1st%, 22nd td%), but it certainly doesn’t explain his high turnover rate (9th to%).

If you’re not doing well in yardage stats and you’re not doing well in non-yardage stats, then you’re not going to do well in the EPA stats (28th EPA/d, 23rd psr).

New England is one of the worst passing teams this year and that’s not very different from the previous 2 years. So, I think it’s safe to call it: Jones isn’t a very good starting QB.

HOW WELL?

The key metrics have been well below average and aren’t trending better.

HOW FAR?

The short passing depth has mostly been driven by the last 4 games.

TO WHO?

The Patriots involve Rhamondre Stevenson heavily in their passing game. Wide receiver Kendrick Bourne has been their clear #1, but he is now out for the season.

HOW ACCURATE?

Jones has gone 2 for 20 on passes over 20 yards. That certainly doesn’t help his declining accuracy numbers.

HOW FAST?

Quicker passes have been a long term trend with Jones.

TO WHERE?

As mentioned earlier, he has horrible deep ball proficiency, but even on short passes, he is not finding much value.