Week 11: Colts Offense by the Numbers

Each week during the season, I will be walking through the data from the previous Colts game analyzing the numbers to form a sort of “what happened” narrative as well as comparing the Colts against all other teams in the league. For a glossary of the stats listed, reference Season Stats. Thanks to Pro Football Reference, NFL.com, Football Outsiders, and the nflFastR project for being awesome sources of weekly data.

The first thing I noticed about the following drive chart is that the Colts offense had crazy good starting field position. That was confirmed by the data, as the average drive started on the 46.6 yardline and is the best of any team in week 11. We can thank defense and special teams for that and it certainly makes it easier for the offense to score. And score they did.

28 first downs on 32 series is an 87.5% DSR, which ties what they did against the Jets and ranks in the 97th percentile of most efficient offenses in 2021. The Colts simply had no trouble moving the ball against the best defense in the league (DVOA).

TEAM TOTALS

• #1 in points per drive
• #1 DSR
• #1 Success Rate
• #2 epa per play
• #3 first down conversion rate
• 100% awesome

About the only stat that isn’t in the same class as the others is yards per play, which ranks 11th. That is driven in large part by the most run heavy offense of the week and passing simply gains more yards (usually).

On the year, the offense has the 6th most points per drive (2.53) which is officially higher than the 2020 Colts (2.45). By DVOA the team ranks 11th, but 7th in weighted DVOA, which weights more recent games higher.

PASS TOTALS

Game script and weather kept the passes short (21st aDOT, 21st yards before catch), but the 7th best epa per drop-back shows that the passing game was efficient overall, even if some of the underlying drivers were not nearly as good (17th success rate, 27th cpoe).

Wentz 5.3 yards per attempt is actually lower than his 5.9 net yards per drop-back (14th), which is unusual, but if you take no sacks and your 1 scramble is for 18 yards, then it’s pretty much guaranteed.

On the year, the Colts passing game is 13th in epa efficiency, which isn’t as good as the 2020 Colts, but far better than the 2020 Eagles. DVOA says the Colts passing offense is 19th. We have certainly played easier passing defenses, but that just seems too low to me.

RUSH TOTALS

I am so disappointed in my adjusted rush success rate stat, as it only ranked the Colts #2 on the ground this week. Led by a career day for Jonathan Taylor, the Colts rushed for the most yards, the most rushing TDs, the most first down conversions, the highest conversion rate, the 2nd most epa per carry and the 3rd best yards per carry.

So why are they only #2? I don’t know. I suck.

On the year, the Colts climb to the #3 most efficient run game (aRSR), which is 1 spot behind their DVOA ranking.

CONCLUSION & LOOK AHEAD

This was simply an end to end dominant performance by the Colts against arguably the best defense in the league. The run game was beyond fantastic and the passing game, which was not asked to do much, was capable in a bad weather situation.

The Buccaneers visit Lucas Oil in week 12 and they bring with them the 7th best DVOA defense. They give up the 11th fewest points per drive along with the 11th lowest DSR. They are tough, but on paper this should be easier than Buffalo . . . yeah, I’m not buying that either.

Against the pass, they rank 7th in DVOA and give up the 13th smallest epa efficiency to opposing QBs. That falls to 18th by success rate so they give up successful pass plays, just not critical ones.

On the ground, they are 4th by DVOA and 10th in adjusted Rush Success Rate against. So this is another tough rushing match-up. Let’s hope for a similar outcome.

Tampa Bay is favored by 3.